jaydreb Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 Euro looks good for Indiana weenies. Back to back inland cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 EPS is substantially different from the OP. Probably doesn't matter much, but... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 What if we are finally getting our Nino response from the previous failed years during a moderate la nina? Say hello to 2009-10.. but in 2020-21! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 Don’t know about storm chances or details, but EPS pattern even better than GEFS the second week of December. Big poleward PNA up into AK and the Yukon. And that configuration starts to bang on the SPV some 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 It’s nice to have the reds and blues finally start to show up in the right places. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 6 minutes ago, jaydreb said: It’s nice to have the reds and blues finally start to show up in the right places. Get the center of that ridge in western Canada a bit further NW and it’s a $ pattern. 7 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 Mount Holly has rain/snow showers in the forecast for Monday night, and mentions flash freeze potential in their discussion. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Mount Holly has rain/snow showers in the forecast for Monday night, and mentions flash freeze potential in their discussion. lol, I’ve experienced more HECSs in my life than flash freezes. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 Just now, WxUSAF said: lol, I’ve experienced more HECSs in my life than flash freezes. I remember one legit one, when I lived in Carroll county. Strong cold front with heavy snow squalls(and thunder) where it melted on the roads for like the first 5-10 mins as temps crashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 27 minutes ago, CAPE said: I remember one legit one, when I lived in Carroll county. Strong cold front with heavy snow squalls(and thunder) where it melted on the roads for like the first 5-10 mins as temps crashed. We had a couple good ones in 2013-2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 40 minutes ago, CAPE said: I remember one legit one, when I lived in Carroll county. Strong cold front with heavy snow squalls(and thunder) where it melted on the roads for like the first 5-10 mins as temps crashed. Had a couple here since moving north. 2013-2014 winter I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 11 minutes ago, mappy said: Had a couple here since moving north. 2013-2014 winter I think Yeah probably here too, but nothing I had to drive in so not as memorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJ3 Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: lol, I’ve experienced more HECSs in my life than flash freezes. The one that comes to mind for me was Christmas night 1993. After snow showers came in the roads were impassable after 1/2 inch of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Would be awesome if the actual blocking turns out more robust and longer lasting. I would love a December 09 event this way And to make it even better................. to happen near Christmas. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 I wish I was smart enough to understand what that video HM posted is really showing. Evolving NA block? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I wish I was smart enough to understand what that video HM posted is really showing. Evolving NA block? Essentially HM is saying the perturbation of the jet stream is going to put us in a more favorable for high latitude blocking in the North Atlantic as we enter December. It's not set in stone, but it's better than what the past 2 winters have shown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 2 hours ago, TJ3 said: The one that comes to mind for me was Christmas night 1993. After snow showers came in the roads were impassable after 1/2 inch of snow. I definitely remember that squall. It was a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 It is just nice to see those higher heights poke into Greenland for a change. Even if it is transient. That has been absent for the past 3 winters. Hopefully we can get some real blocking this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Since I need a break from Thanksgiving prep, I was looking at the 18z GFS for S&G....H192 has four different closed 500 lows across the CONUS. While interesting to see, it also shows just how volatile and difficult this period will be to nail down re: specifics/surface on an operational run ~200 hours out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Ggem ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fourseasons Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 7 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Ji's JMA is a little later with the phase This reminds me of when I was a kid and watching the dearly departed Bill Matheson on ITV Edmonton, Alberta, describing the Mother Low sending off Little Lows. What is pictured above is a Mother Low and a Little Low which has been dispatched to the Northwest Territories. It was also important to keep your eye on an Idaho High. (Apologies if this belongs more in Banter.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2020 Author Share Posted November 25, 2020 59 minutes ago, Ji said: Ggem ftw 6-8 along i95 corridor But... the heaviest snowfall is overnight Thursday and its 9 days away... so maybe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2020 Author Share Posted November 25, 2020 00z EURO was better... but still too late and inland for most of us -- re Dec 5 threat. At 216 SLP is down by the AL/GA/FL border trifecta at 1003mb... at 240 its 981mb SLP is right near PHL. Makes me think EPS should have a few snowy solutions tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2020 Author Share Posted November 25, 2020 Though... Day 8-10 looks quite serviceable to me looking up top. Probably wrong... but looks like a nice PNA ridge where we want it by Day 10 with high heights in Greenland and looks like some decent blocking? Or am I confusing things? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 2 hours ago, yoda said: Though... Day 8-10 looks quite serviceable to me looking up top. Probably wrong... but looks like a nice PNA ridge where we want it by Day 10 with high heights in Greenland and looks like some decent blocking? Or am I confusing things? I agree. This is the first legit potential event if it holds for a few days. The pattern is conducive. Nice PNA. Blocking isn’t amazing but it’s there, a nice Pre storm ULL...., issue has to do with timing and placement as always with how that 2nd shortwave kind of swings under the ULL and where that ULL sets up. It could go to crap if it takes too long. Then you’d have another over phased Great Lakes low, but as it stands this might be our first track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Fwiw, the latest extended GEFS keeps the same general h5 look, and gets below normal temps into central Canada around mid December. There is a relaxation of the PNA ridge around that time, but then the +PNA reemerges(axis a tad further west) and the EPO goes negative (around xmas). The NA is generally serviceable throughout. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 54 minutes ago, CAPE said: Fwiw, the latest extended GEFS keeps the same general h5 look, and gets below normal temps into central Canada around mid December. There is a relaxation of the PNA ridge around that time, but then the +PNA reemerges(axis a tad further west) and the EPO goes negative (around xmas). The NA is generally serviceable throughout. Hmm interesting. That seems in conflict with the MJO moving into the torch phases (4-6) over and east of the maritime continent. I wonder if mid- December will trend warmer on the progs. But MJO doesn’t always rule the roost, so maybe there are conflicting signals, but I don’t see what would keep us chilly? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Hmm interesting. That seems in conflict with the MJO moving into the torch phases (4-6) over and east of the maritime continent. I wonder if mid- December will trend warmer on the progs. But MJO doesn’t always rule the roost, so maybe there are conflicting signals, but I don’t see what would keep us chilly? The proverbial turd in the punchbowl post lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: The proverbial turd in the punchbowl post lol Ha. We’ve got a nice pattern the first 10-14 days of December and already have a window or two picked out. That’s really good for December! Especially in a mod/strong Nina! 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Interesting to keep track of during mid to late December for any sensible weather implications in January. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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