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December 2020 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Tippy Terd in the punch bowl. :lol:

 

I think we all stated the day 7-8 caveats, but I'd argue the large picture has some of the key features you look for. I don't see this as progressive "ruler" flow like we've had before. Sure it may nt work out, but even afterwards...you could state that we have several chances down the road over the next 2+ weeks.

Agree.

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13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

My son was complaining that we had no snow because he went to Blue Hills on Sunday and went hiking in the snow, and then the snow fell at my folks in Marshfield the other day.  Kid is a true weenie. He pulls up the icon on TT when I'm not looking. :lol: 

TT?

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Is anyone noticing that redic cold plume that's gaining mass over interior/NW territories of the Canadian shield on the Euro operational..? 

That's the most consistent identifiable 'object' on any of these charts and means...  -30 C 850 mb isn't a mere parcel over Dead Horse ...it's spread out over a huge real-estate now, and is nearing -40 C at a couple of nodel holes...   Man, should the synoptic dam ever topple and bring that down, it's not like it's traveling from Siberia over and open Beaufort Sea... it'd be Chicago with zero modification trek -

The PV just kind of sits there in the same spot and spins for days on end....good environment to just keep cooling down with almost no solar insolation now up there.

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11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agree.

Hey... you guys only see the neg-head side of that uncertainty -

"math" requires there's a possibility in either direction; it could very well come in great, too - 

I never said no to that ;)   ...  go back and read the fugger - ... I said, "confidence" is low - that can mean anything.  

I just read a 'tenor' for optimism ...and while I don't have a problem with optimism itself, it has to be foundationed in something... I hear the melody in here and it sounds like someone dreaming of a someone they used to know, and thinking that because it's on the radio - that must be a sign... hahaha...  Oh god - welcome to my life

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10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Education and experience tells us not to be optimistic about D7/8 ... 

Why ? 

Beyond the obvious ... that "D7/8" aspect, the pattern is one defined by fast and progressive, and I would even rub that in by calling it 'fastly progressive'.  I'm not even sure the system in the foreground up through the Lakes is being handled right. The flat very fast nature of the flow is so excessive ...that system's governing wave space is still off the west coast.  It's actually not even over land and into the denser physically realized sounding grid.   I mean... assimilation has come a long way - in fact... I have noticed that "shadowing," which used to cause depth/amplitude morphology headaches down stream over eastern N/A in the past... is now gone in most cases.  However, over this recent decade or so - I'm suspicious there isn't a deliberate bias to over-assimilate where uncertain. Over doing matters is not likely to harm civility - ... lol, annoy Kielbasa weather chart cinema co-dependent neurotics like us ? sure.. But 99.999999% of the population is not going to be injured ...it's not seeing potency that will... and so on... 

Different discussion..

Without the western ridge/easter trough coupled ( 101 here ) structure ... mm.  See, when the flow is curved, it stresses the S/W strength over arcs of ridges (destructive) ..tending to 'iron' unwanted wrinkles - think of it that way.... Those that survive that ride, they get constructive feedback/amplitude boost as they near the bottoms of trough... - this total process "filters" noise out naturally ... Thus, conservation of wave mechanical energy results - predictability increases ... So, instead of buck-shot coming off the Pacific like now... you get a nicer orderly wave spacing with bigger slugs of dreams of cryo candy bliss and less domestic blowouts -

When the flow lacks these larger scale focusers/filters ...conservation opens up to entropy ( disorganization ) and S/W interfere ...  blue lights flicker over car tops parked at angles across front lawns...

Even the more advanced technology systems have intrinsic difficulty handling fast open wave progressive flow tendencies ... without the extra hyper discrete sampling to avoid the choas emergence of wave interactions when the flow lacks to the ability to "focus" mechanics wave space into a specific spatial-temporal positions within the streams.  That's enough...

Anyway, this nearer term deal off the Pacific could come in slightly over assimilated...and that would mean ( most likely ..) a flatter evolution ...more through the eastern Lakes or even NY as a short term correction... Doesn't mean much for us as far as our sensible weather ... Meaningless shade-puller while we watch our NFL teams... But, that trailing wave might get less interfered negatively by a weaker lead system ...Those ICON - type solutions for early Tuesday could "little critter" the area ...  But even this 'correction model' is complete shit when considering that chaos is rather high - ... All this, THEN... whatever happens D7/8 ?? 

Good luck...  

Was thinking the same. If the threat is still there Sunday evening while I'm sipping an adult beverage.. then I'll get excited 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The PV just kind of sits there in the same spot and spins for days on end....good environment to just keep cooling down with almost no solar insolation now up there.

I know... holy cryo hell.   I wonder if at some point this winter does it and we'll wanna refer back to this discussion lol

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hey... you guys only see the neg-head side of that uncertainty -

"math" requires there's a possibility that it comes in great, too - 

I never said no that ;)   ...  go back and read the fugger - ... I said, "confidence" is low - that can mean anything.  

I just read a 'tenor' and that melody sounds someone dreaming of a girl the used to know, and thinking that because it's on the radio - that must be a sign... hahaha...  Oh god - welcome to my life

Nah, I get it.....good set up, but obviously the usual caveats that are inherent of extended leads apply.

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9 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Lookie! Lookie! Weather Underground is predicting 10.5" on Wednesday 12/16. I'm sold. Can only go up from here.

 

9.4" for me! Sucks that you're getting 1.1 more than me but I'll take it.

I don't know why you guys are using all these inaccurate crude models when WU tells you how much snow you're getting down to the 1/10" up to 10 days out 

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Wxbell is his dunkin donuts. 

Iced Coffee ftw

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

LOL If its late at all over the course of the next week, he'll roll out of his cruiser with a case of delirium tremens

I'm working late until 3am on Friday night if you want a live PD segment.

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