40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2020 Author Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Pike north keeps it, but Kev will find a shady areas behind the moss covered shed to prove me wrong. My 2" of crust will be gone...but there areas north of the pike that did did not get porked and got several inches last weekend likely keep it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: My 2" of crust will be gone...but there areas north of the pike that did did not get porked and got several inches last weekend likely keep it. We had about an inch from that here and It’s still half-intact in shaded areas!! Cuz it was so dense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Pants tent H5 look next week on EPS. 50/50ish low, trough about to go neutral as it rounds the Deep south, Greenland ridging, PNA starting to rise etc. Pray it doesn't get ruined. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2020 Author Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 minute ago, IowaStorm05 said: We had about an inch from that here and It’s still half-intact in shaded areas!! Cuz it was so dense Its a combination of the fact that it is such high water content, and the sun is so feeble this time of year. It would def be patchy if this were March or even February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Pike north keeps it, but Kev will find a shady areas behind the moss covered shed to prove me wrong. Naaa, inversion at 1000' and temps in the 60s...TORCH! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My 2" of crust will be gone...but there areas north of the pike that did did not get porked and got several inches last weekend likely keep it. Yeah places like ORH and northward will prob keep full cover. The 495 belt (esp down this way) will prob try and keep a little bit. But hopefully the pack retention doesn't matter anyway and by the time we get to Sunday, we're tracking a a major storm, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 47 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Don't for get the RNA....should be a mainly NE deal. Yeah true, still if I only have to chase to the poconos that’s fine by me haha...regardless 6z Eps best run of the winter on a pure threat basis so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Pants tent H5 look next week on EPS. 50/50ish low, trough about to go neutral as it rounds the Deep south, Greenland ridging, PNA starting to rise etc. Pray it doesn't get ruined. Ya that’s a very nice look...we take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Pants tent H5 look next week on EPS. 50/50ish low, trough about to go neutral as it rounds the Deep south, Greenland ridging, PNA starting to rise etc. Pray it doesn't get ruined. That is pretty darn classic. Hopefully it sticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That is pretty darn classic. Hopefully it sticks. If it was just the opposite at 144hrs(a crap look), folks would be locking it up instantly. I think that look is legit for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its a combination of the fact that it is such high water content, and the sun is so feeble this time of year. It would def be patchy if this were March or even February. Yeah man, look at this crap....you can just tell by looking at it in the pic that it's like 4 to 1 slime (that has been refrozen for days now). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2020 Author Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Pants tent H5 look next week on EPS. 50/50ish low, trough about to go neutral as it rounds the Deep south, Greenland ridging, PNA starting to rise etc. Pray it doesn't get ruined. TBH, I am okay with forgoing the PNA....I think this is a pattern that should target NE, and really reduce the likelihood of a whiff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah man, look at this crap....you can just tell by looking at it in the pic that it's like 4 to 1 slime (that has been refrozen for days now). Looks like one of those meaty March packs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: If it was just the opposite at 144hrs(a crap look), folks would be locking it up instantly. I think that look is legit for the most part. The good part of about this threat is that it has multi-guidance ensemble support. It's not just showing up on one model and kind of meh on the others. There's never any guarantees at 6-6.5 days out, but if you had to pick what you want to see at this time frame, then that is pretty darn solid. You have the larger scale pieces in palce like Scott outlined on his map and you have some antecedent cold and a good shortwave. About all you can ask for. Sure, it could go to crap, but we'll roll the dice all day long on that setup and we'll hit more than we miss. It's like being in a 3-1 count in baseball. You have the advantage at that point even though you could still pop out to shortstop. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Looks like one of those meaty March packs. I was actually thinking that this morning when I took my boys outside to the car to drop them off at daycare....it was like 31F out and not that cold but the pack was this frozen mass and that combo had me thinking "this kind of feels like March 20th or something when it's not that cold, but still cold enough to refreeze the paste that we got in some event on St. Patty's day" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: TBH, I am okay with forgoing the PNA....I think this is a pattern that should target NE, and really reduce the likelihood of a whiff. Where did that big Siberian/Arctic block come from? There was nothing there a few days ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 My son was complaining that we had no snow because he went to Blue Hills on Sunday and went hiking in the snow, and then the snow fell at my folks in Marshfield the other day. Kid is a true weenie. He pulls up the icon on TT when I'm not looking. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Where did that big Siberian/Arctic block come from? There was nothing there a few days ago. It's actually always been there but the models were breaking it down really quickly N of AK before it could really exert much influence. I am always skeptical when guidance breaks down blocks very quickly....it happens sometimes in reality, but more often they do it too quickly. In this case, it was really bad though, they not only did it too quickly, they failed to see it strengthen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Education and experience tells us not to be optimistic about D7/8 ... Why ? Beyond the obvious ... that "D7/8" aspect, the pattern is one defined by fast and progressive, and I would even rub that in by calling it 'fastly progressive'. I'm not even sure the system in the foreground up through the Lakes is being handled right. The flat very fast nature of the flow is so excessive ...that system's governing wave space is still off the west coast. It's actually not even over land and into the denser physically realized sounding grid. I mean... assimilation has come a long way - in fact... I have noticed that "shadowing," which used to cause depth/amplitude morphology headaches down stream over eastern N/A in the past... is now gone in most cases. However, over this recent decade or so - I'm suspicious there isn't a deliberate bias to over-assimilate where uncertain. Over doing matters is not likely to harm civility - ... lol, annoy Kielbasa weather chart cinema co-dependent neurotics like us ? sure.. But 99.999999% of the population is not going to be injured ...it's not seeing potency that will... and so on... Different discussion.. Without the western ridge/eastern trough coupled ( 101 here ) structure ... mm. See, when the flow is curved, it stresses the S/W strength over arcs of ridges (destructive) ..tending to 'iron' unwanted wrinkles - think of it that way.... Those that survive that ride, they get constructive feedback/amplitude boost as they near the bottoms of trough... - this total process "filters" noise out naturally ... Thus, conservation of wave mechanical energy results - predictability increases ... So, instead of buck-shot coming off the Pacific like now... you get a nicer orderly wave spacing with bigger slugs of dreams of cryo candy bliss and less domestic blowouts - When the flow lacks these larger scale focusers/filters ...conservation opens up to entropy ( disorganization ) and S/W interfere ... blue lights flicker over car tops parked at angles across front lawns... Even the more advanced technology systems have intrinsic difficulty handling fast open wave progressive flow tendencies ... without the extra hyper discrete sampling to avoid the choas emergence of wave interactions when the flow lacks to the ability to "focus" mechanics wave space into a specific spatial-temporal positions within the streams. That's enough... Anyway, this nearer term deal off the Pacific could come in slightly over assimilated...and that would mean ( most likely ..) a flatter evolution ...more through the eastern Lakes or even NY as a short term correction... Doesn't mean much for us as far as our sensible weather ... Meaningless shade-puller while we watch our NFL teams... But, that trailing wave might get less interfered negatively by a weaker lead system ...Those ICON - type solutions for early Tuesday could "little critter" the area ... But even this 'correction model' is complete shit when considering that chaos is rather high - ... All this, THEN... whatever happens D7/8 ?? Good luck... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's actually always been there but the models were breaking it down really quickly N of AK before it could really exert much influence. I am always skeptical when guidance breaks down blocks very quickly....it happens sometimes in reality, but more often they do it too quickly. In this case, it was really bad though, they not only did it too quickly, they failed to see it strengthen. Yeah it really did strengthen. That's just a fireball up there at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 2 hours ago, It's Always Sunny said: I thought this was the New England forum, not NY. Do these NYC weenies have a return address? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah it really did strengthen. That's just a fireball up there at 500mb. You basically get a ridge bridge now at about D5-7. That is a good thing..... The -NAO going forward is nice too...especially since the N PAC isn't that good once we're about D8+....the NAO can really help put a system or two underneath us on that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: You must be a proud papa. Gotta teach em young. Are you looking at the icon more than you’re letting on here though? Hell no. lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Lookie! Lookie! Weather Underground is predicting 10.5" on Wednesday 12/16. I'm sold. Can only go up from here. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: You basically get a ridge bridge now at about D5-7. That is a good thing..... The -NAO going forward is nice too...especially since the N PAC isn't that good once we're about D8+....the NAO can really help put a system or two underneath us on that scenario. We may need that near Christmas since we may get borderline again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: TBH, I am okay with forgoing the PNA....I think this is a pattern that should target NE, and really reduce the likelihood of a whiff. screw the MA lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Just now, J Paul Gordon said: Lookie! Lookie! Weather Underground is predicting 10.5" on Wednesday 12/16. I'm sold. Can only go up from here. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: You must be a proud papa. Gotta teach em young. Are you looking at the icon more than you’re letting on here though? Lol. Scott had his son looking at weather models the day he came home from the hospital. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Is anyone noticing that redic cold plume that's gaining mass over interior/NW territories of the Canadian shield on the Euro operational..? That's the most consistent identifiable 'object' on any of these charts and means... -30 C 850 mb isn't a mere parcel over Dead Horse ...it's spread out over a huge real-estate now, and is nearing -40 C at a couple of nodel holes... Man, should the synoptic dam ever topple and bring that down, it's not like it's traveling from Siberia over an open Beaufort Sea... it'd be through Chicago with zero modification trek almost immediately - 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Tippy Terd in the punch bowl. I think we all stated the day 7-8 caveats, but I'd argue the large picture has some of the key features you look for. I don't see this as progressive "ruler" flow like we've had before. Sure it may nt work out, but even afterwards...you could state that we have several chances down the road over the next 2+ weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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