Baroclinic Zone Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Well the Mar 4-6 blizzard. Wasnt great for that area but thats about it for snow. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2011/Weather.html Thanks. Quite forgettable. Wasn’t that much into tracking weather at that point in my life. Looks like 1-3” tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 psu ewall is great for historical views: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2001/us0305.php#picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 I’ve looped 03/01 so many times and I still scratch my head how that didn’t put down 2-3ft in SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 For what its worth, CMC looks interesting for the 17th-18th. As others have said looks like a timeframe to be watched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Nice high latitude blocking on the gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Everything phased kind of later and more disjointed than originally modeled. The more disjointed is what cost New England from getting widespread 3+ feet. The later and further north phase/development is what screwed further south (like mid-Atlantic) from getting snow at all. I was forecasted to get 2-3 feet. I got 5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’ve looped 03/01 so many times and I still scratch my head how that didn’t put down 2-3ft in SNE. Just looking at it. Primary is over MI, not what I would want to see but I’m sure this has been disected a million ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Just looking at it. Primary is over MI, not what I would want to see but I’m sure this has been disected a million ways. I had like 7 or 8” near the end over in Marshfield. It was actually a snowy month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Same thing. 2-3ft turns to 2-3 inches. Jan 15 was an epic bust for Upton , Euro and Nam. Euro and Nam had 1-2 feet and Upton on their snow map had 24 + for NYC the day before with a scary and stating " Dangerous crippling blizzard is on the way " I got 10 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’ve looped 03/01 so many times and I still scratch my head how that didn’t put down 2-3ft in SNE. Late bomber Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Anyone remember Jan 2008? Another epic bust in my area Forecasted to get 6-12 inches with a heavy snow warning and I didn't even get a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 30 DEC 2000 was huge for me .. I said its would miss DC PHL and got yelled at for 36 hours before the event hence the rule .. well developed MILLER B ALWAYS and I mean ALWAYS fook over someone on the west and or NW side of it see March 2001 as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 monster -NAO if its correct 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 woof 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Jan 15 was an epic bust for Upton , Euro and Nam. Euro and Nam had 1-2 feet and Upton on their snow map had 24 + for NYC the day before with a scary and stating " Dangerous crippling blizzard is on the way " I got 10 inches you got lucky with that 10, if it werent for that odd rogue band that hovered over LI and NYC that wasnt forecast you would have gotten 2" like a lot of NJ did. I only picked up 7.5" from the main event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’ve looped 03/01 so many times and I still scratch my head how that didn’t put down 2-3ft in SNE. It did put down that much from like Ray’s current location over to ORH and the northern Berkshires...but yeah, surprising it wasn’t further south with the 20+ amounts. It was just a bit disorganized. You can see how the phase is a little bit sloppy where the sfc low gets pretty Far East and then has to be yanked all the way back west. It kept the WCB and CCB from really getting in sync properly. Again, still a pretty big storm even for CT (12-18 except in a few spots far SW and far SE) but it definitely could have been considerably bigger. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Anyone remember Jan 2008? Another epic bust in my area Forecasted to get 6-12 inches with a heavy snow warning and I didn't even get a flake. i think thats the one im always trying to remember...there was an epic epic bust worse than jan 15 or Apr 2003 or anything i can remember...we were forecast 7-14" here and we ended up with some RN/SN showers with 0 accumulaiton. It was an epic bust. its probably that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: you got lucky with that 10, if it werent for that odd rogue band that hovered over LI and NYC that wasnt forecast you would have gotten 2" like a lot of NJ did. I only picked up 7.5" from the main event. Yes I remember that band. We were so lucky. At least Jan 16 made me forget about Jan 15. Got 30 inches here with 26 hours of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: i think thats the one im always trying to remember...there was an epic epic bust worse than jan 15 or Apr 2003 or anything i can remember...we were forecast 7-14" here and we ended up with some RN/SN showers with 0 accumulaiton. It was an epic bust. its probably that one. The models had the low bombing right under LI the whole time. The storm ended up bombing at the SNE latitude. Temps were supposed to drop from the 40s into the 30s as the low started to bomb but it never happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, DTWXRISK said: monster -NAO if its correct That’s definitely been a theme on today’s guidance...started trending toward that a day or two ago but it seems like today the models are really bullish on it. EPS has it too....though the EPS doesn’t have as much western CONUS ridging as the GEFS which would be nice to see. 5 minutes ago, DTWXRISK said: 30 DEC 2000 was huge for me .. I said its would miss DC PHL and got yelled at for 36 hours before the event hence the rule .. well developed MILLER B ALWAYS and I mean ALWAYS fook over someone on the west and or NW side of it see March 2001 as well I remember you posting about Mar 2001 back on the ne.weather newsgroup. I think you had like a dozen mid-Atlantic posters ready to kill you in that thread, lol. I didn’t post yet back then but that’s when I really started following the online weather community. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 I was in NJ for 12/30/00 which was some of the heaviest wall of snow I’ve seen. If I recall wasn’t that a real strong Arctic shortwave that just exploded when it hit the coast and went negative tilt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Yes I remember that band. We were so lucky. At least Jan 16 made me forget about Jan 15. Got 30 inches here with 26 hours of snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Jan 15 was an epic bust for Upton , Euro and Nam. Euro and Nam had 1-2 feet and Upton on their snow map had 24 + for NYC the day before with a scary and stating " Dangerous crippling blizzard is on the way " I got 10 inches Euro tends to choke for the nyc metro area lol for some reason. Jan 15 (too far nw), Jan 16 (too far se), Mar 17, and there has been some others as well. Even Boxing 2010 it had some wacky couple runs that shoved the system too far east. Snow forecasting can be razor thin though but you’d think the best scoring model would come through in big EC events like it used to. Jan 96 I recall it had it locked for days. That consistency seems to have either faded or we are all hyper focused on 5 mile radiuses amd thus not allowing much margin for error. Maybe a combo of both. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 46 minutes ago, powderfreak said: You ever wonder what 1978 would’ve looked like on today’s models? Could it have been 5-6 feet, that verifies as 36-48”. I always wonder about that... how storms of yore would’ve been represented in the lead time with today’s models. I sometimes wonder what radar looked for certain events. 1888 comes to mind. Probably would have looked like a hurricane coming on shore. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Don’t ever make me re-live that ever again. I even had to delete the radar loop from this quoted post. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said: I sometimes wonder what radar looked for certain events. 1888 comes to mind. Probably would have looked like a hurricane coming on shore. I wonder what what totals would have been if 1888 occured today. Kocin has said that they are likey wayyy underdone as they were measuring depth at the end especially NYC based on the pictures and info we have he thinks they should have way more maybe 30" or more. and if the depth was 45" here, were probably looking at 60+ easily measuring in 6 hr increments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 38 minutes ago, Fozz said: Some guys around my age actually cried when it busted. Probably 11-13 years old at the time, so it's understandable. Also I was told that John Bolaris will never live down all his hyping of that March storm that never happened. I lived near Baltimore at the time and grew up there, and I do remember the December 2000 storm. I wasn't emotionally invested in it since I was not yet into winter weather, but that was actually another bust in the mid-Atlantic. I think the forecasts called for 8-12", something major, but the precip shield ended up being so compact that it completely bypassed the area. Philly ended up with 9" and was right near the edge, but Wilmington received only an inch or two. DC and Baltimore did not get a single flake. And then a few months later we all know what happened. I actually texted Ji on AIM the night of the December 30 event around like 3am. Don’t ask me why I remember this, but he was depressed at the fact that there were clear skies at DC. I was up all night watching the radar. Fell asleep thinking we were screwed. Of course I fell asleep right as it started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Don’t ever make me re-live that ever again. I even had to delete the radar loop from this quoted post. Its painful but jan 16 made up for, here at least, that storm was awesome, daytime 2-3/hr rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: Its painful but jan 16 made up for, here at least, that storm was awesome, daytime 2-3/hr rates. Missed Jan 16 just to my south. Only had 8”. I’ve missed in every direction since Jan 11 and I left the area for Feb 13 lol. I could be the jinx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: I wonder what what totals would have been if 1888 occured today. Kocin has said that they are likey wayyy underdone as they were measuring depth at the end especially NYC based on the pictures and info we have he thinks they should have way more maybe 30" or more. and if the depth was 45" here, were probably looking at 60+ easily measuring in 6 hr increments. Jesus lol. Gotta wonder what the H5 charts looked like to allow something like that to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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