December 2020 Discussion

[Heisy]

Feb 5 2001 was a nasty storm even down here. Went from heavy rain to a white out during rush hour. Kids stranded at schools and all sorts of accidents. Ranks up there with the heaviest snow I’ve ever seen. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

15 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The beginning of our community happened.

Congrats.  Predated my forum life by 4 years.  I was in the throws of wedding planning.

[MJO812]

24 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The beginning of our community happened.

You took my 2-3 feet from the storm

[dendrite]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You took my 2-3 feet from the storm

25-40” in my county

[Johnno]

1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Thats my experience with Feb 5 2001, not sure if you are talking about Mar or Feb there. I was only a young teenager but it really got me excited about weather. I had no idea it could thunder and lightning while it was snowing let alone CG strikes. I was outside and a CG strike hit my neighbors back yard and thunder so loud it felt like a summertime convective storm. Crazy heavy sleet and snow followed by several more CG and CC strikes.

2nd favorite storm behind Feb 13.... biggest snowflakes I’ve ever seen and near whiteout all day it seemed like. I remember my cousin and I were 14 and had recently bought ATVs with plows for our driveways... we had our hands full that day it was a special storm for the valley

[Typhoon Tip]

Not impossible that the 24 hour relay off the Pac proves over assessed as far as potency of that leading wave in the parade ( apparently ..) that's about start later tomorrow and spit S/W over mid latitudes for week's worth...

Anyone of which could be important - as is?  looks like a bag of interference headaches...

But if that lead is over assessed it may not turn a lakes cutter that soon and deep through Michigan...flattening the lead... I also am not sure the +PP and the curl/'tuck' scenario over/eastern NE is entirely correctly handled in the bigger synopsis..but we'll see on that.. .

Should that transpire, the next wave originally slated for next Tues/Wed may return to the guidance' as a player -

Not a prediction but I'll personally be watching the ejection out of the eastern Pac tomorrow...and if there indeed a morphology toward flattening things.. .

[MRVexpat]

Stray flakeage in Cambridgeport while walking the pup. Good vibrations!

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

 

 

I’m an idiot.  It was Feb ‘01.  Dendrite was probably in that same mesoband I remember coming through eastern NY state SE of ALB.  It was that same winter, I just didn’t flip the calendar year in my post .

You sure it wasn’t Jan 6-7, 2002? ALB got destroyed by that mesoband in an otherwise shit winter. 

In don't recall anything special about ALB in 2/5/01. The huge band was mostly east of them from western MA, N central MA into NH. 

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Absolutely horrific. 

Kinda like Jan '15 down in the NYC area.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Kinda like Jan '15 down in the NYC area.

Same thing. 2-3ft turns to 2-3 inches.

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Good times

https://web.archive.org/web/20010405123656/http://www.wright-weather.com/cgi-bin-bb/forumdisplay.cgi?action=topics&number=11&forum=Forecasting+Discussion&DaysPrune=30&startpoint=760

Some things never change: "WXRisk admitted it was a bust, referring to the storm as a Pamela Anderson storm, (a bust and everyone knows it), Kind of a generic admittal but making sure he dragged every other forecaster into it, after all, they said it toooo, waaaaaahhh.

I can't wait to see how Bastardi refers to this tomorrow. He REALLY hyped this thing up and even was patting himself on the back in the last 3 posts for predicting this baby 2 weeks ago. He warned of life-threatening situations and historical consequences. I enjoy and respect Mr. Bastardi's column, it will be interesting to see if he "takes out the garbage" big time, or tries to spin some kind of twisted, weak victory because a few places in New England got 2'."

[powderfreak]

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You sure it wasn’t Jan 6-7, 2002? ALB got destroyed by that mesoband in an otherwise shit winter. 

In don't recall anything special about ALB in 2/5/01. The huge band was mostly east of them from western MA, N central MA into NH. 

Yeah it wasn’t that special but more than was expected 2-3 days out.  The band was definitely east of us along the MA/NY border at this latitude.

But boy do I remember Jan 2002 too.  Great memory to bring up.  A complete sh*t winter that somehow grabbed a high-end event.  That featured a depth increase of 8” in 2 hours officially at the airport during the height of it.

Delmar, NY where I grew up had 18” and was a near jackpot.  Not bad for the 01-02 winter.

That was another southern stream moisture laden storm:

 In this case, the northern and southern stream branches of the jet never really phased well.  What happened instead was that a strong upper level storm embedded within the southern branch of the jet intensified to the point, as it drove south into the Gulf of Mexico, that it alone was able to buck a fast shearing flow along the coast as it swung around the base of the east coast trough, to form a moderately intense surface Nor'easter that produced some heavy snow in the Northeast.  The storm did move very rapidly from off the Virginia coast late Sunday afternoon to the Canadian Maritimes by early Monday morning, which reduced the amount of snow that would have fallen had the system moved slower.

The fast speed of the storm, however, was compensated for by the lift in the atmosphere the storm created and the high moisture content of the air it brought with it from the Gulf of Mexico.  The atmospheric lift was so great and moisture content so rich that snow fell at rates of 2"-4" per hour for a couple of hours from 8pm through midnight on the 6th.  In fact, at Albany, eight inches of snow fell between 10:00pm and midnight on January 6. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

There was another smaller but memorable bust in Feb 87 (maybe) living in CNJ. Forecasted for 12-18” even the morning of...school was cancelled. All excited. Anyone who grew up in the coastal mid atlantic knows you rarely got to experience a 12+ event, those were rare. Well, the system never got far enough north. Cape May and ACY got like 18” and that was the extent of it. A day off from school with the snow gear hanging by the front door, waiting to be strapped on, watching TWC radar look like crap thinking it was over before it began. Then the forecast changed, local on the 8s went from 12-18” to 2-4” and then ‘cloudy with a chance of snow showers’. That’s it...I jammed in excitebike into the Nintendo in disgust. 

[MJO812]

18z eps earlier threat should still be watched 

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/3-day-geomagnetic-forecast?fbclid=IwAR060vp7iKNJXAPUcImOM7jru65m_4k3qifdeVtWALXfmORFSBLNQ2zC5s8
 

does this mean best chance is tomorrow after late evening 

[Heisy]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Good times

https://web.archive.org/web/20010405123656/http://www.wright-weather.com/cgi-bin-bb/forumdisplay.cgi?action=topics&number=11&forum=Forecasting+Discussion&DaysPrune=30&startpoint=760

Omg I have a post on that page you just linked...my original username is icez. I’m embarrassed to even read it lmao.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Even I got screwed from that in terms of wind. LOL. Core of LLJ went into nrn MA and SNH. 

I remember that as one of the few impressive wind events in Wilmington. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

March ‘01 might have been the only time I’ll be “disappointed” with like 2 feet of snow. 

It felt like we left about 12-18” on the table in that one. The modeling was so ridiculous. 

I was happy with it, but yea...was supposed to be blizzard of 78 like.

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Good times

https://web.archive.org/web/20010405123656/http://www.wright-weather.com/cgi-bin-bb/forumdisplay.cgi?action=topics&number=11&forum=Forecasting+Discussion&DaysPrune=30&startpoint=760

Elemental Energy. Hooralph. Some good old ones there.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, ScituateWX said:

 

I like Rosental...he is on the radio now.

Shweogler talked about his famous backlash at the end haha

[Baroclinic Zone]

Was living in Middleboro in 2001.  What am I missing or not missing from March that year?  Was there any snow there? BOX used to have access to historical snow storms but they truncated it to only last  sum odd years.

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was happy with it, but yea...was supposed to be blizzard of 78 like.

You ever wonder what 1978 would’ve looked like on today’s models?  Could it have been 5-6 feet, that verifies as 36-48”.  I always wonder about that... how storms of yore would’ve been represented in the lead time with today’s models.

[Heisy]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Elemental Energy. Hooralph. Some good old ones there.

Anyone know what happened to Arizwx? He was a classic for some reason I feel like he may have passed away, but not 100% sure. Where has Rob22 been? He was a phillY classic, I knew him in person in met school and lost touch. 

[JoeSnowBOS]

What is the best home weather station?  Looking for accuracy and ease of setup.  

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

You ever wonder what 1978 would’ve looked like on today’s models?  Could it have been 5-6 feet, that verifies as 36-48”.  I always wonder about that... how storms of yore would’ve been represented in the lead time with today’s models.

Someone needs to design an app for that. 

[Typhoon Tip]

I’m sure they’ve done it internally in the engineering ... testing reanalysis etc. 

[The 4 Seasons]

5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Was living in Middleboro in 2001.  What am I missing or not missing from March that year?  Was there any snow there? BOX used to have access to historical snow storms but they truncated it to only last  sum odd years.

Well the Mar 4-6 blizzard. Wasnt great for that area but thats about it for snow.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2011/Weather.html

[Heisy]

5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Was living in Middleboro in 2001.  What am I missing or not missing from March that year?  Was there any snow there? BOX used to have access to historical snow storms but they truncated it to only last  sum odd years.

Famartin has a nice winter storm archive but it’s just for NJ. Though it has all sorts of maps for a lot of storms since 94.

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/

 

here was 01’s H5 track. A really wacky capture. 

[backedgeapproaching]

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

You ever wonder what 1978 would’ve looked like on today’s models?  Could it have been 5-6 feet, that verifies as 36-48”.  I always wonder about that... how storms of yore would’ve been represented in the lead time with today’s models.

Kuchera for March 1888..ha.  

[Fozz]

2 hours ago, Wentzadelphia said:

You have no idea. I signed up on Wright weather and the weather channel forums (they were briefly a thing) in 2000. My first experience tracking was the dec 30 2000 storm, but 2001 will never be forgotten down here in philly. I didn’t look at weather models until the next year, but I remember reading it on the forums of how insane they were. I was 14 at the time, schools were cancelled for two days for no reason because the hype was so real and the AVN model kept showing snow and had done well during a few other storms during the season that some outlets, looking at you John Bolaris of NBc10, who still held onto 6-10 like the night before the main low (there were two Parts of that storm)...

I remember joe bastardi’s crazy newsletter hyping it up, ji & nor’easter posting about it on wright weather, and unfortunately I remember the night the models suddenly swung northward. 

anyone remember gary grays website? This storm reminds me of reading his newsletter. I forget if that was his name. Man 2-3 days before the storm there was legit talks of 30-40” in philadelphia. 

Some guys around my age actually cried when it busted. Probably 11-13 years old at the time, so it's understandable. Also I was told that John Bolaris will never live down all his hyping of that March storm that never happened.

I lived near Baltimore at the time and grew up there, and I do remember the December 2000 storm. I wasn't emotionally invested in it since I was not yet into winter weather, but that was actually another bust in the mid-Atlantic. I think the forecasts called for 8-12", something major, but the precip shield ended up being so compact that it completely bypassed the area. Philly ended up with 9" and was right near the edge, but Wilmington received only an inch or two. DC and Baltimore did not get a single flake. And then a few months later we all know what happened.