radarman Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 I know it's been mentioned dozens of times here already, but LOL if that STJ wave train on the GFS comes to pass in a legit nina. Just glad we're in the obs/nowcasting business and not the forecasting business. That's a helluva tricky business. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 7 minutes ago, radarman said: I know it's been mentioned here dozens of times here already, but LOL if that STJ wave train on the GFS comes to pass in a legit nina. Just glad we're in the obs/nowcasting business and not the forecasting business. That's a helluva tricky business. Oh they are scrambling for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2020 Author Share Posted November 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Oh they are scrambling for sure. Some of these exotically warm ratter calls have the potential to be over before they begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Some of these exotically warm ratter calls have the potential to be over before they begin. From a forecast standpoint, some are doing a 180 for part of December, depending on where you live. The thinking is back half of December returns to Nina, but I don't know if there is confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2020 Author Share Posted November 25, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: From a forecast standpoint, some are doing a 180 for part of December, depending on where you live. The thinking is back half of December returns to Nina, but I don't know if there is confidence. My thought has always been after xmas and potentially beyond the first week of January for a deterioration...but the big PNA is a surprise to me, and I would think that would be more fleeting. I think the polar domain and EPO will take a bit longer to go to crap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2020 Author Share Posted November 25, 2020 Keep in mind, though....IMO, we aren't going to have the big seasonal RNA that many assume. The PNA will likely average neutral or even slightly positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Keep in mind, though....IMO, we aren't going to have the big seasonal RNA that many assume. The PNA will likely average neutral or even slightly positive. I saw some work showing a few stronger Ninas did have a +PNA in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2020 Author Share Posted November 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I saw some work showing a few stronger Ninas did have a +PNA in December. Yea, I could miss on that. I am nervous about that portion of my call right now. However, I like my forecast for a near neutral PNA on a seasonal level. All things considered, I think I am looking better than the consensus for the month of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2020 Author Share Posted November 25, 2020 A Dec PNA could be a big deal for the mid atl...game changer IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like a nor'easter on GFS now. yeah... i posted about it over in the Novie thread ... fwi not w ... not a very believable solution due to continuity break - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: yeah... i posted about it over in the Novie thread ... fwi not w ... not a very believable solution due to continuity break - Yeah. I think this ends up more warmer in the end, but man that’s a lot of QPF on all guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah. I think this ends up more warmer in the end, but man that’s a lot of QPF on all guidance. un-related note... ... can the next person that brings up drought in this social-media's sphere be chastised and ridiculed beyond the very endurance of man please - every f'n June with this gig ya know - ugh 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Might need to call the Sultan after mid week. The Sultan of Sandbags in high demand over the mtns of NH and Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 The 12z GFS is such a weird depiction with the swirling, meandering lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 How euro and EPS progressing in the longer range. Still look encouraging? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2020 Author Share Posted November 25, 2020 12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: un-related note... ... can the next person that brings up drought in this social-media's sphere be chastised and ridiculed beyond the very endurance of man please - every f'n June with this gig ya know - ugh Its mostly Bob with the drought fetish. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its mostly Bob with the drought fetish. Yeah, farmer Bob and his crops I guess. Who knew. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2020 Author Share Posted November 25, 2020 My only hope with this is that it substantially contributes to wave breaking down the line. I couldn't care less how deep the low gets if it doesn't result in a great deal of snowfall for Methuen. I'm not one to massage my own prostate while counting isobars on social media, unless its tropical in nature. This ends in banal sensible appeal for these parts one way or another. Give me a 1000mb low over the benchmark with cold in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 11 minutes ago, PhineasC said: The 12z GFS is such a weird depiction with the swirling, meandering lows. I'm thinking part of the issue with that 'swirling' non-committed center ... it's very spring-like - Sometimes the mid and extended early April chart will have a deep mid level gyre that looks quite menacing, but has a comparatively weak surface reflection rattling around underneath. Basically in both scenarios such as that ...and probably this? - there's no cold air at low levels to force the frontal structures. It's complex fluid/thermodynamic stuff ... but sharper fronts do things like make upward vertical motion be more "up" ...and not diffusely spread out over broader, shallower frontal surface areas, where by the restoring up under the lifting air regions are also thus spread out - that 'spread out' opens up the low ... with that sort of busted ravioli mess - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 It's funny to read the Midwesterners in their forum freaking out over the model flip-flops. Right now, Euro stands alone with the blizzard scenario. We can tell them a thing or two about how that movie ends. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 anyway... the only take away is that a +PNA is arriving and as is typical and proving so again ... it's leading modality heralds with storminess - nothing else ... for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its mostly Bob with the drought fetish. Effin guy is a jinx. I hope his basement floods... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 EPS is getting more ridging into the EPO domain at the end of the run. You can see that if we keep doing the retro, it may get more Nina back half of the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 That Euro is a huge damaging wind event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: That Euro is a huge damaging wind event I don't think so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 LOL here we go again with this wind debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: LOL here we go again with this wind debate. If you notice he's been dangling that lure all day hoping someone would bite. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2020 Author Share Posted November 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don't think so. Just let him go....you should know by now that every low passing west of Tolland is a '38 redux. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, kdxken said: If you notice he's been dangling that lure all day hoping someone would bite. He’s dedicated to his craft. Gotta respect that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS is getting more ridging into the EPO domain at the end of the run. You can see that if we keep doing the retro, it may get more Nina back half of the month. Question is will it fire up the SE ridge or will any higher heights in NAO region push the cold into the east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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