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December 2020 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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16 minutes ago, rimetree said:

Looks cold enough to retain some of my meager pack this weekend despite the rain and wait for some chances next week. Better than what had been advertised a few days ago.

 

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes..things change over a few days time. In this case it looks to be for the better, if you like a more wintry appeal. 

This why I advise folks who are very invested to go into each season with a conceptualization of how you anticipate the season to evolve; obviously this will not always be correct, but it helps to ground expectations and guard against the fostering of short shortsightedness by unstable guidance.

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40 minutes ago, JoeSnowBOS said:

Anyone have EURO snow maps for mid next week even though it will change every run - just curious to see “potential”

There doesn't seem to be a great deal of mass flux, which is to stay that the pattern looks to be relatively stagnant with not a great deal of shifting of air masses and pressure patterns in the longer range. This implies that one should expect storms of moderate intensity for the most part...I think the path way to a larger ticket QPF event would be more of the overrunning variety, as the potential for any bombogenesis, or anything of that nature is below climo IMHO...at least at this latitude.

I think for the huge overrunning, you would want some true arctic air, and looks to me to be more seasonal cold.

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35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Frankly, at this moment, my primary concern is for a colder and snowier second half than I had envisioned. I am not that concerned about the call for an active December with seasonal to slightly above avg temps.

Second half of winter, or second half of December Ray?  I read that as second half of winter, but maybe I misunderstood your point? 

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I like the 12/17 look the most (I've actually liked this period for days now...I think I was posting about 12/16-12/19 a few times)....EPS were pretty bullish on that one last night.

 

But yeah, can't rule out the follow up wave on 12/15 yet.

Yeah.....this is the next "obvious" threat that bears watching. 

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I like the 12/17 look the most (I've actually liked this period for days now...I think I was posting about 12/16-12/19 a few times)....EPS were pretty bullish on that one last night.

 

But yeah, can't rule out the follow up wave on 12/15 yet.

12/17 looks as though it may attenuate somewhat on approach, but too early to worry about that....OP looks pure s stream, ENS more of a hybrid born of some split flow.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nice mesolow showing up this weekend....if we had cold air at the sfc more established beforehand, that would be a very bullish icing signal even into BOS for a time.

Yea, blogging right now and harping on antecedent airmass..AGAIN.

Should be last time for a while.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, blogging right now and harping on antecedent airmass..AGAIN.

Should be last time for a while.

Still need to keep half an eye on it...if this whole thing presses more on Saturday leading into it, then there could be some legit icing concerns. I'm leaning against it for now, but we've seen it happen before. Esp for further inland, like ORH county into S NH.

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