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December 2020 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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Lol... ho man, you'd get a kick outta the JMA. 

...that sucker looks like 2.78" of accreted ice, then,  24" of snow on top - from overnight Saturday night through next Tuesday ... fuggin cryo-apocalypse.   

I mean, I posted two days ago that this pattern was only deceptively bad but I didn't exactly have ending the world in mind. lord

Is the JMA like ...useful ?  I really haven't ever bothered to look.

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5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It has a better look then a few days back of cutters, But caveats apply still this far out.

Yeah hard to tell if it’s a head fake or not... but the Mets here have outlined how it could work.  But still at this lead time it could be a cutter again tomorrow, lol.

Snow maps are nice from here to you though Day 7-8.

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Bahahaha

Get my standby generator installed 30 days later.

After this past weekend (even though i didn't lose power) I'm having my electrician come hook me up a 10 circuit 30 amp generator switch in anticipation of us seeing more of these types of systems going forward.

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Lol... ho man, you'd get a kick outta the JMA. 

...that sucker looks like 2.78" of accreted ice, then,  24" of snow on top - from overnight Saturday night through next Tuesday ... fuggin cryo-apocalypse.   

I mean, I posted two days ago that this pattern was only deceptively bad but I didn't exactly have ending the world in mind. lord

Is the JMA like ...useful ?  I really haven't ever bothered to look.

The JMA H5 graphics always reminded me of the NOGAPS for some reason lol. It tends to be like smoothed out idk. It’s not a good model but i look at it as support for a storm idea. 

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3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

After this past weekend (even though i didn't lose power) I'm having my electrician come hook me up a 10 circuit 30 amp generator switch in anticipation of us seeing more of these types of systems going forward.

How does the cost compare to having a generac installed?

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3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

How does the cost compare to having a generac installed?

Its around $700 for the Switch, Cable and labor, I already have the portable Genny, I'm going to be upgrading that too here at some point to 10,000 watts, So i'm looking at $1,500 total.

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Okay yeah... 

   agree with Scott .. It is unlikely that results that way - I mean it can...sure.  But the model is probably transitioning, needing multiple cycles to land on another isothermal headache snow column... Probably just early on in that process with this run.

One thing ...I thought about this morning, and wonder if we're seeing some staggering?  It is not uncommon in multi- Pac ejection/ progressive patterns, the leading disturbances end up becoming more dominant.  - this thing over the 5th/6th did that.    It was originally going to be the 7th and 8th, and I did post earlier in this thread that we should watch the 5th system 'in the foreground' because it had ensemble coherence/weighting therein... So what happens, ... it disappears for a couple cycles and then comes back and eats the pattern's lunch!

the 5/6th became synoptically dominant.    It may be that a Tuesday system gets to be a real threat.   Hard to know - again again again this anomalously fast progressive business is not a good fit for model accuracy.  Beside, if we can get in get off get out on Tuesday ... we have a shot for the D9 to be less interfered -

 

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Yet another school  ... I also don't like the way the Euro rotates that positively tilted trough at D5 dropping through the Arklotex and stem-winding the mid levels like that. 
Looks 'surprisingly' over conserved with curvature - what's new ... Euro going from D5 into 6.  Heights over the Gulf and Florida and off the U.S. SE coast are rather lofty in that evolution leading, and that's planetary banded/anchored... It could/should rather cause the flow to speed up and that would destructively interfere -

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33 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Okay yeah... 

   agree with Scott .. It is unlikely that results that way - I mean it can...sure.  But the model is probably transitioning, needing multiple cycles to land on another isothermal headache snow column... Probably just early on in that process with this run.

One thing ...I thought about this morning, and wonder if we're seeing some staggering?  It is not uncommon in multi- Pac ejection/ progressive patterns, the leading disturbances end up becoming more dominant.  - this thing over the 5th/6th did that.    It was originally going to be the 7th and 8th, and I did post earlier in this thread that we should watch the 5th system 'in the foreground' because it had ensemble coherence/weighting therein... So what happens, ... it disappears for a couple cycles and then comes back and eats the pattern's lunch!

the 5/6th became synoptically dominant.    It may be that a Tuesday system gets to be a real threat.   Hard to know - again again again this anomalously fast progressive business is not a good fit for model accuracy.  Beside, if we can get in get off get out on Tuesday ... we have a shot for the D9 to be less interfered -

 

Yea, that 5" ice storm is akin to one of those provisional 2' inverted trough scenarios, while the model engineers a means to break the news to you that the weather ain't gonna do shit.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS came in flatter than previous runs....we'll see if we can push that arctic high south even more in the next couple days.

 

 

Dec8_12zECMWF_120.png

 

Know what we never seem to see anymore ...  damming signatures in low level pressure patterns - gosh I miss the good ole days

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

1040 arctic high is no joke either....at least it's better than tracking a straight cutter.

That high is perfectly placed. If that ensemble is correct....we're not seeing a straight rain within 10 miles of the ocean, at least not without hell to pay first. I don't care where it tracks.

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