ineedsnow Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 That's a pretty big icestorm on the Euro woah! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 No thanks... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Yes yes yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Tough to do with an ULL south like that? We sell, but it would flatten the grid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Nov 1921 repeat next Tuesday? That’s an insane icing look. Overrunning galore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: We take that Euro run all day long. Two Advisory events through day 5-6. It has a better look then a few days back of cutters, But caveats apply still this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Union FTW. Tolland FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Nov 1921 repeat next Tuesday? Bahahaha Get my standby generator installed 30 days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 We need that ridge bridge across the Arctic. That needs to hold. Without that, it's Margaritaville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: No thanks... Better to be in the bull’s-eye six days out because you know it won’t hold like that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Lol... ho man, you'd get a kick outta the JMA. ...that sucker looks like 2.78" of accreted ice, then, 24" of snow on top - from overnight Saturday night through next Tuesday ... fuggin cryo-apocalypse. I mean, I posted two days ago that this pattern was only deceptively bad but I didn't exactly have ending the world in mind. lord Is the JMA like ...useful ? I really haven't ever bothered to look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Nov 1921 repeat next Tuesday? Kevin is engorged. http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photonov1921.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 My guess is that might be more snow or IP if that happened? Tough to get big ice with mid levels low to the south I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: It has a better look then a few days back of cutters, But caveats apply still this far out. Yeah hard to tell if it’s a head fake or not... but the Mets here have outlined how it could work. But still at this lead time it could be a cutter again tomorrow, lol. Snow maps are nice from here to you though Day 7-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: My guess is that might be more snow or IP if that happened? Tough to get big ice with mid levels low to the south I think. Yeah, that kind of ice would be too brief. You need those weenie waves to give you more subtle overruning over several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Bahahaha Get my standby generator installed 30 days later. After this past weekend (even though i didn't lose power) I'm having my electrician come hook me up a 10 circuit 30 amp generator switch in anticipation of us seeing more of these types of systems going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Focused on the 15th-18th, that could be our first accum snows. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Yeah, that kind of ice would be too brief. You need those weenie waves to give you more subtle overruning over several days. OR an obscene slug of 3" of qpf like Dec '08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Lol... ho man, you'd get a kick outta the JMA. ...that sucker looks like 2.78" of accreted ice, then, 24" of snow on top - from overnight Saturday night through next Tuesday ... fuggin cryo-apocalypse. I mean, I posted two days ago that this pattern was only deceptively bad but I didn't exactly have ending the world in mind. lord Is the JMA like ...useful ? I really haven't ever bothered to look. The JMA H5 graphics always reminded me of the NOGAPS for some reason lol. It tends to be like smoothed out idk. It’s not a good model but i look at it as support for a storm idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 I haven't even looked at it yet ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: After this past weekend (even though i didn't lose power) I'm having my electrician come hook me up a 10 circuit 30 amp generator switch in anticipation of us seeing more of these types of systems going forward. How does the cost compare to having a generac installed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: How does the cost compare to having a generac installed? Its around $700 for the Switch, Cable and labor, I already have the portable Genny, I'm going to be upgrading that too here at some point to 10,000 watts, So i'm looking at $1,500 total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Looking like a slightly wintery pattern in these parts... seemingly appropriate for a neutral to slightly negative NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Okay yeah... agree with Scott .. It is unlikely that results that way - I mean it can...sure. But the model is probably transitioning, needing multiple cycles to land on another isothermal headache snow column... Probably just early on in that process with this run. One thing ...I thought about this morning, and wonder if we're seeing some staggering? It is not uncommon in multi- Pac ejection/ progressive patterns, the leading disturbances end up becoming more dominant. - this thing over the 5th/6th did that. It was originally going to be the 7th and 8th, and I did post earlier in this thread that we should watch the 5th system 'in the foreground' because it had ensemble coherence/weighting therein... So what happens, ... it disappears for a couple cycles and then comes back and eats the pattern's lunch! the 5/6th became synoptically dominant. It may be that a Tuesday system gets to be a real threat. Hard to know - again again again this anomalously fast progressive business is not a good fit for model accuracy. Beside, if we can get in get off get out on Tuesday ... we have a shot for the D9 to be less interfered - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Yet another school ... I also don't like the way the Euro rotates that positively tilted trough at D5 dropping through the Arklotex and stem-winding the mid levels like that. Looks 'surprisingly' over conserved with curvature - what's new ... Euro going from D5 into 6. Heights over the Gulf and Florida and off the U.S. SE coast are rather lofty in that evolution leading, and that's planetary banded/anchored... It could/should rather cause the flow to speed up and that would destructively interfere - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 33 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Okay yeah... agree with Scott .. It is unlikely that results that way - I mean it can...sure. But the model is probably transitioning, needing multiple cycles to land on another isothermal headache snow column... Probably just early on in that process with this run. One thing ...I thought about this morning, and wonder if we're seeing some staggering? It is not uncommon in multi- Pac ejection/ progressive patterns, the leading disturbances end up becoming more dominant. - this thing over the 5th/6th did that. It was originally going to be the 7th and 8th, and I did post earlier in this thread that we should watch the 5th system 'in the foreground' because it had ensemble coherence/weighting therein... So what happens, ... it disappears for a couple cycles and then comes back and eats the pattern's lunch! the 5/6th became synoptically dominant. It may be that a Tuesday system gets to be a real threat. Hard to know - again again again this anomalously fast progressive business is not a good fit for model accuracy. Beside, if we can get in get off get out on Tuesday ... we have a shot for the D9 to be less interfered - Yea, that 5" ice storm is akin to one of those provisional 2' inverted trough scenarios, while the model engineers a means to break the news to you that the weather ain't gonna do shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 EPS came in flatter than previous runs....we'll see if we can push that arctic high south even more in the next couple days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 1040 arctic high is no joke either....at least it's better than tracking a straight cutter. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS came in flatter than previous runs....we'll see if we can push that arctic high south even more in the next couple days. Know what we never seem to see anymore ... damming signatures in low level pressure patterns - gosh I miss the good ole days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: 1040 arctic high is no joke either....at least it's better than tracking a straight cutter. That high is perfectly placed. If that ensemble is correct....we're not seeing a straight rain within 10 miles of the ocean, at least not without hell to pay first. I don't care where it tracks. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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