40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: UK is CAD city. Euro will probably at least trend in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 4 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: My point was that Nina Marches are generally colder than Nino Marches due to the background ENSO state or at least they have been of late. That's all I was trying to say from the start. Snowfall is subjective because it depends on geographic location especially by March. There are exceptions but ideally you want a colder month than a warmer month. I’m not familiar with everyone’s snowfall records/averages in March. Oh, okay. Well, my point was that el nino winters are usually more back loaded for SNE than la nina, but the caveat being that that maybe mostly due to February. You may have a case for March temps, however, I am more confident that el nino is better for March snow in SNE than la nina. Obviously its subjetive...I am talking about SNE because I live here and its a NE subforum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 @snowstorms....no worries. I will delete a lot of this since its OT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Definitely watch D9's space - More so than the average ... GEF individual members carrying coherent signal into 80 - 70 longitudes ... with typical spread as to geography for this range - they all have something. That in itself is sufficient at this range to warrant - And as you/we've been noting - ongoing -AO probably not being assessed entirely correctly as to how it influences ...particularly when on-going PNA's neutral - the latter conceptually sprays buckshot Pac waves capable of getting things done, while gambling on polar boundary placements out ahead. One other things folks, - be advised that the pattern we are being handed by the blends and individual runs is an anomalously progressive one. "Accuracy" in timing and placement becomes premium... It's an interesting philosophical quandary of sorts...because - to me - we are above normal confidence in systems of interest, while simultaneously below the threshold of confidence in visualizing what those will entail.. I tend to agree with Will that an icer/mixier look for C-NNE is on the table of the weekend... But again, the D9 is red flagged and has been showing up in the EPS and GEFs with unusual coherence ... Could be a PD-model ordeal in that time span - Can we get that icy mix into interior SNE? Or is it just too much to bleed the cold that far south? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 3 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Ya’ if it’s gon’ rain I’d rather it be warm. Nobody wants 35° rain. Cold or warm nobody wants rain except those folks in Taunton. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Time to start shoveling GGEM snow. At least it looks like the next 10 days are trending better. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Time to start shoveling GGEM snow. At least it looks like the next 10 days are trending better. Its very easy to shovel...low reality content. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Can we get that icy mix into interior SNE? Or is it just too much to bleed the cold that far south? Short answer: Not impossible ... but low probability - We've obviously experienced some significant errors in handling these flat flows where open Pac waves with strong wind maxes get forced S of the Canadian lower hgts - yesterday I referred to this as 'inverse blocking' ... Whatever works, the PV or general lower heights N have a flow around the bottom ( polar jet) that prevents turning N without phasing... and the the flow is too fast to allow that... so, we end up forcing/correcting the angle of polarward turn S given time. Is this one of those ? That sort of error was more common in the mid 1990s through early 2000s... In fact, 2008 as others referenced... Don't know about recently however. Given to modeling "upgrades" ... Euro's had two and the GFS three since 2010 I think, in a time span where I don't even recall a -AO/neutral PNAP frenzy type patter. In other words, this sort of scenario may not really be tested in recent winter to be blunt. We'll have to see... If it were not for the -AO with the arguable -NAO both in play, it'd be a different discussion entirely - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 10 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Time to start shoveling GGEM snow. At least it looks like the next 10 days are trending better. congrats in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Short answer: Not impossible ... but low probability - We've obviously experienced some significant errors in handling these flat flows where open Pac waves with strong wind maxes get forced S of the Canadian lower hgts - yesterday I referred to this as 'inverse blocking' ... Whatever works, the PV or general lower heights N have a flow around the bottom ( polar jet) that prevents turning N without phasing... and the the flow is too fast to allow that... so, we end up forcing/correcting the angle of polarward turn S given time. Is this one of those ? That sort of error was more common in the mid 1990s through early 2000s... In fact, 2008 as others referenced... Don't know about recently however. Given to modeling "upgrades" ... Euro's had two and the GFS three since 2010 I think, in a time span where I don't even recall a -AO/neutral PNAP frenzy type patter. In other words, this sort of scenario may not really be tested in recent winter to be blunt. We'll have to see... If it were not for the -AO with the arguable -NAO both in play, it'd be a different discussion entirely - Like how many times would Wiz mention the word CAPE in each post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: @snowstorms....no worries. I will delete a lot of this since its OT. I switched this to the winter 20-21 thread, copying your post from about 30 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its very easy to shovel...low reality content. My 400” average remains intact on the GGEM. All joking aside though it had several gradient type events which would fit with NINA DEC and just the overall evolution is good to see and matches with what some of you have talked about. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Euro is coming in pretty flat so far 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Yeah that's a wedge you'd see at Wilimington Elementary School when Ray walks into the boy's room, type deal. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Meso low and HP north of Maine. #damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro is coming in pretty flat so far Yeah ..that's a pretty striking already - thing is ... if/when any polar air bends around the corner it's game over for warm intrusion NE of NYC without some sort of unusually powerful S anomalous firehose .. that's precariously close there - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 +1 to Will for that post about 08 yesterday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 More of a SWFE on the 12z Euro for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 We see this all he time. Heck, I remember the gtg at Clarke’s with progs of rain and warm over the weekend from a Monday lead time even doing up snowy and icy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: More of a SWFE on the 12z Euro for the weekend. Get used to that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Kind of messy for part 2. A S/W party across the CONUS. Almost wants to be amped, but flow may be a little progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Get used to that. 07/08, I'll take it all day. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Kind of messy for part 2. A S/W party across the CONUS. Almost wants to be amped, but flow may be a little progressive. I think being careful may be the course of least regret. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: 07/08, I'll take it all month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think being careful may be the course of least regret. Still needs some work for SNE, but more interesting up north for sure. Verbatim some ice into interior MA and maybe over to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 30 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Time to start shoveling GGEM snow. At least it looks like the next 10 days are trending better. I guess I get the silver medal with the second highest total, 23.2, right over me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 Just now, mreaves said: I guess I get the silver medal with the second highest total, 23.2, right over me. MPV FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 We take that Euro run all day long. Two Advisory events through day 5-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Nov 1921 repeat next Tuesday? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Icestorm next Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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