MJO812 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Ha, saw ICON and CMC. Differences as is typical this far out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, you live in Toronto.....no fan of winter weather residing in SNE should prefer a la nina March to that of el nino. I realize that there are exceptions to this. No, I definitely agree. I meant to say of late. Nino Marches are great up here for the most part too. I would gladly take a repeat of March 2007, 2005, or 2003 just to name a few. The past couple Nino Marches have been trash, i.e. 2020, 2019, 2016, 2010, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Welcome back guys 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Welcome back guys Something has to break right.....Right? Lol, who knows, but as some have said that period from the 14th though the 19th looks like we might have a chance at something. Hopefully the look continues to hold as we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 11 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: No, I definitely agree. I meant to say of late. Nino Marches are great up here for the most part too. I would gladly take a repeat of March 2007, 2005, or 2003 just to name a few. The past couple Nino Marches have been trash, i.e. 2020, 2019, 2016, 2010, etc. Well, the past two el ninos were crap.....2010 was a fluke, and 2016 was the super event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Well wintry yesterday and today and likely tomorrow. We’re likely heading back to Chicago within the next week or so....they may have a better location given the pattern unfolding over the next few weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, the past two el ninos were crap.....2010 was a fluke, and 2016 was the super event. What’s your sample size for the March nina assertion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Icon has a snow event day 7-8 as well. Different shortwave than GFS is showing, but much snowier runs today so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 GFS offering me a nice birthday present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Weakening la nina leading to a big second half...if we have a good second half, then it will be due to a SSW. There is a lag between ENSO and the atmosphere....climo dictates that la nina winters do not have big finishes. Agree with you 100%. He keeps using the Euro to push this story line, which was horrible with this Niña. It was the last to the party and kept insisting on barely a weak event. The CFS, which did a very good job is actually showing a secondary peak in 3.4 come January. Over the last month or so, the eastern ENSO regions have actually been warming and the western regions have been cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 @ORH_wxman @CoastalWx I don't have the site on me...how much did Reading coop get in March 2008 and March 2012? TIA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, the past two el ninos were crap.....2010 was a fluke, and 2016 was the super event. Well you can apply the exact same logic for 2012 then. 2012 was garbage for everyone. So, I don't see how March 2010 was a fluke, the blocking weakened, and Nino took over. The last two Nina Marches were better for areas further south like NYC. Due to stronger ENSO forcing as winter wears on, Nina Marches generally tend to be colder than Nino Marches due to Alaskan ridging. There are exceptions, you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 Just now, Snowstorms said: Well you can apply the exact same logic for 2012 then. 2012 was garbage for everyone. So, I don't see how March 2010 was a fluke, the blocking weakened, and Nino took over. The last two Nina Marches were better for areas further south like NYC. Due to stronger ENSO forcing as winter wears on, Nina Marches generally tend to be colder than Nino Marches due to Alaskan ridging. There are exceptions, you're right. Are you really trying to compare March 2012 to March 2010? I think that you need to so some serious homework, and then reengage me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 39 minutes ago, dendrite said: Not a lot of difference at the sfc...GFS still struggling with the CAD. I fully expect to be stuck in the 30s for the duration...a little IP/ZR and then a cold rain at best. We'll see what the Euro does at 12z....but I'm somewhat on the more suppressed train at the moment where the sfc high builds down. I'd expect the GFS to be the last model to see it. 12z Ukie is building the high in out ahead of the system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: We'll see what the Euro does at 12z....but I'm somewhat on the more suppressed train at the moment where the sfc high builds down. I'd expect the GFS to be the last model to see it. 12z Ukie is building the high in out ahead of the system This is going to begin our 12/07, 12/08 like run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: @ORH_wxman @CoastalWx I don't have the site on me...how much did Reading coop get in March 2008 and March 2012? TIA... 3.1" March 2008. 2.7" March 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is going to begin our 12/07, 12/08 like run. I hope....lol....I still think we're prob screwed down here for this weekend, but NNE may end up pretty wintry on this one. But we may have a couple legit threats behind this one. That blocking lingers up in the arctic, so I won't be surprised to see a general trend more favorable during that period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Are you really trying to compare March 2012 to March 2010? I think that you need to so some serious homework, and then reengage me. I'm not comparing the two. March 2012 was historic and remains in a league of its own. But March 2010 was warm too except for the southern states. Two different ENSO states. The only difference is once the blocking weakened in 2009-10, the Nino forcing took over the pattern leading to a warm March. The blocking in 2010-11, a strong Nina, weakened by late February too. But once the Nina took over most of us in the NE ended up cooler or near average. But I'm 100% sure anyone south of NYC would take a Nino over a Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 UK is CAD city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 24 minutes ago, weathafella said: What’s your sample size for the March nina assertion? Mean snowfall of 9 Mod to strong la nina events IMBY since 1957 is 7.8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Mean snowfall of 9 Mod to strong la nina events IMBY since 1957 is 7.8". Well that means it’s random. N of 9 can’t be reliably predictive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Ray, run those numbers for BOS which goes back 3 times as long allowing for a bigger N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its more predictive than picking out the 1-2 moderate to strong la nina March months that produced. No it’s equally predictive according to statistics . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: The pattern did go to shit later in March 2010, but the only reason that was not a big snow month is because the system early in the month retrograded so far to the west due to the strong block. March 2012 was just a wall-to-wall furnace. That whole winter was a furnace for all of us. You can say the exact same thing for last winter since the two winters had similar patterns. March 2020 was warm for all of us. You can run the exact same graph for the last 10 Nino's (2020, 2019, 2016, 2015, 2010, 2007, 2005, 2003, 1998 and 1995) and Nina's (2018, 2017, 2012, 2011, 2009, 2008, 2006, 2001, 2000, 1999) and tell me what you get. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: No it’s equally predictive according to statistics . The vast majority of climate data is technically statistically insignificant. I'm quite confident that you can run the data back to 1850 or whatever for Boston and mod-strong nina March will be below the general March mean snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 You guys might want to take this Enzo stuff to the Winter thread. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The pattern did go to shit later in March 2010, but the only reason that was not a big snow month is because the system early in the month retrograded so far to the west due to the strong block. March 2012 was just a wall-to-wall furnace. Maine was the slight outlier, as shown on the temp anomaly maps. March 2010 didn't get anywhere near 80 - topped out in mid 60s - but never got down lower than 11 and at my place had 28 AN days. 2012 had that incredible 6-day run of 20-28° AN but also was subzero on the 6th and had 11 days with BN temps. 2012 had 50% of average precip and 80% (14.6") of average snowfall. 2010 had 180% of average precip and 3% (0.6") of average snowfall. Maine was different because it was closer to the January retro-bomb that ate our winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not sure what your point is....are you trying to tell me that the winter of 2009-2010 wasn't any more hostile with respect to SNE snowfall than the 2011-2012 season because all winters are mild due to GW? My point was that Nina Marches are generally colder than Nino Marches due to the background ENSO state or at least they have been of late. That's all I was trying to say from the start. Snowfall is subjective because it depends on geographic location especially by March. There are exceptions but ideally you want a colder month than a warmer month. I’m not familiar with everyone’s snowfall records/averages in March. Edit: Anyhow, didn't mean to create this allusive argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I hope....lol....I still think we're prob screwed down here for this weekend, but NNE may end up pretty wintry on this one. But we may have a couple legit threats behind this one. That blocking lingers up in the arctic, so I won't be surprised to see a general trend more favorable during that period. Definitely watch D9's space - More so than the average ... GEF individual members carrying coherent signal into 80 - 70 longitudes ... with typical spread as to geography for this range - they all have something. That in itself is sufficient at this range to warrant - And as you/we've been noting - ongoing -AO probably not being assessed entirely correctly as to how it influences ...particularly when on-going PNA's neutral - the latter conceptually sprays buckshot Pac waves capable of getting things done, while gambling on polar boundary placements out ahead. One other things folks, - be advised that the pattern we are being handed by the blends and individual runs is an anomalously progressive one. "Accuracy" in timing and placement becomes premium... It's an interesting philosophical quandary of sorts...because - to me - we are above normal confidence in systems of interest, while simultaneously below the threshold of confidence in visualizing what those will entail.. I tend to agree with Will that an icer/mixier look for C-NNE is on the table of the weekend... But again, the D9 is red flagged and has been showing up in the EPS and GEFs with unusual coherence ... Could be a PD-model ordeal in that time span - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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