EastonSN+ Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 55 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'm still meh on the long range. Might be a window near mid month for 1-2 events to break right...but nothing really imminent or eye opening. Optimistic view is to hope something is timed right, but reality is to also accept it may stink. Not a fan of the EPS look. At least with a +NAO we would pop a SE ridge and warm up. This is a cold rain look for SNE. Terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Just now, EastonSN+ said: At least with a +NAO we would pop a SE ridge and warm up. This is a cold rain look for SNE. Terrible. Tough to say with that amount of detail. Overall to me is sort of lousy, but "sort of lousy" looks can sometimes break right. It's basically being on the fence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 You can see the weak low that zips across NNE on Saturday and helps warm us up Friday into Saturday. Cold air bleeds in behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 21 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: At least with a +NAO we would pop a SE ridge and warm up. This is a cold rain look for SNE. Terrible. Ya’ if it’s gon’ rain I’d rather it be warm. Nobody wants 35° rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 1-2 fell in the Berks this morning. Wasn't forecasted and isn't even showing up on radar. Must be some very localized upslope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 GFS op shows you how close it is. At least the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 4 minutes ago, RDRY said: 1-2 fell in the Berks this morning. Wasn't forecasted and isn't even showing up on radar. Must be some very localized upslope. Interesting. I have not seen a flake or drop here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 I had some snow grains around midnight, but no trace of it this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I had some snow grains around midnight, but no trace of it this AM. Wife says same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 38 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Interesting. I have not seen a flake or drop here. Still some flurries (NWS calling it "inversion" precip). Kind of funny all the focus on that big storm, with zero accumulations here. Then, nothing forecasted, and a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 59 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: If there’s going to be an icestorm ORH will be in the thick of it . Iron clad Maybe. The didn't get much ice on Jan 8-9, 1998. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Comparing 6z Euro at 90 and 0z Euro at 96, the storm in the Midwest is slightly flatter and the boundary layer is further south. This would be good for New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 10 minutes ago, tamarack said: Maybe. The didn't get much ice on Jan 8-9, 1998. The only reports from the 1998 ice storm were west of ORH, Paxton north through Ashby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: The only reports from the 1998 ice storm were west of ORH, Paxton north through Ashby. I can confirm major ice at Wachusett in that and my life literally flashing before my eyes as I lost control while skiing. Hit a patch of dirt and lit up the slope in orange from the sparks off my skis. True story lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Phin will be angry to miss that. Yeah, been a very long time since I have seen a proper ice storm. Heavy rain at 31 degrees and some dude reporting glaze on his trees in the DC suburbs is not a "major ice storm" Mid-Atlantic weenies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Sun/Mon needs to be watched for CNE/NNE right now, Just diving back into this as the so called cutter a few days back is trending flatter as we go along with enough cold air around to make it interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mothman Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 High latitudes and elevations avoid the rain this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I can confirm major ice at Wachusett in that and my life literally flashing before my eyes as I lost control while skiing. Hit a patch of dirt and lit up the slope in orange from the sparks off my skis. True story lol. Scooter streak in the ski pants? 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Scooter streak in the ski pants? Yup, the shit streak had early origins lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Ya’ if it’s gon’ rain I’d rather it be warm. Nobody wants 35° rain. there are quite a few sickos that would prefer 33 rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: That weekend deal is coming in flatter and flatter each run....the arctic does kind of support stuff trending colder with that...lot of blocking up there right now, so wouldn't be surprised to see further PV lobe pushes south. Below is the 06z EPS at 96 hours. I marked the ridges/blocks in the arctic/subarctic regions that will be important and then the PV lobe that may impact any potential for colder solutions.....we want to force that a bit further south. It has trended steadily south in the past 4 or 5 runs. I'll probably be glazing eyes over with too much verbosity as usual at some point during the next while here.... but in short, that's an ice-storm pattern big time there. - the rip/read with pearled troughs enhancing periodic confluence with that N stream confluent into a split rejoin along 40 N Lake/NE axis is basically building/science 101 in how to lay a foundation for ice-storm palaces. But, that's the snap shot rip read. It's not taking into consideration how the pattern is or isn't in process of modulating toward some other destination, either... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: There are exceptions...but odds are against it, especially with a moderate to strong peak. It depends. I'll take a Nina March over a Nino March. March 2008 was golden here with 22" as was March 2001 with 16" and March 2011 with 12". There are exceptions like Morch 2012 or March 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 GFS sharper with the s/w and rains to Maines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: Scooter streak in the ski pants? It was one of the most scariest moments of my life. Right after Sonny Bono and I think one of the Kennedy's went into a tree on skis and died. I honestly was going to fall on purpose to slow me down and risk breaking an arm or leg, so I could slow down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: GFS sharper with the s/w and rains to Maines. We rains to Maines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS sharper with the s/w and rains to Maines. 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: We rains to Maines Congrats UP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Not a lot of difference at the sfc...GFS still struggling with the CAD. I fully expect to be stuck in the 30s for the duration...a little IP/ZR and then a cold rain at best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 11 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: It depends. I'll take a Nina March over a Nino March. March 2008 was golden here with 22" as was March 2001 with 16" and March 2011 with 12". There are exceptions like Morch 2012 or March 2006. Well, you live in Toronto.....no fan of winter weather residing in SNE should prefer a la nina March to that of el nino. I realize that there are exceptions to this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Got some flakes falling now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Cmc develops a low along the front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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