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December 2020 Discussion


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5 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I am pretty optimistic for you guys for March. My NAO indicator seems to have worked at least a little bit for December, with the index at least nominally negative. I think the blend I had said -0.2 for December. It had March more negative than December.

Nino 4 has been following 2007 (but warmer) all year. If it continues to do that, you do have a strong wet signal for the Ohio Valley in February, and then a weak wet signal for New England. Should still be cold enough for a lot of snow. Nino 4 is likely to finish Dec/Jan the coldest it has been in 5-10 years, maybe more. The warm signal from a cold Nino 4 January doesn't really extend into all of New England either in February. It took until Dec/Jan but the 2007-08 La Nina did see Nino 4 eventually drop below 27.0C, which is very cold for that area, even by 1951-2010 averages. It should happen in the next six weeks. You'll know the effect has kicked in if you see a big snowstorm in say, Kentucky, in mid-January or February. 

Nino-4-cold-January.png

Also a cold signal for you guys in Spring. The correlations aren't super strong, but with Nino 4 set to run ~2C colder in the next few months compared to last year, it should have a big imprint on the patterns. We're not getting jack out here once the Spring correlations kick in, winter is less of an issue though

Nino-4-cold-winter.png

Yea, I have some hope for March, but I am not crazy about the big JFM idea. 

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On 12/6/2020 at 3:04 PM, WinterWolf said:

I was 9, and would turn 10 about 5 wks later when the Blizzard of 78 hit. That was a very good winter obviously.   The 80’s had a lot of suck..but there were some bright spots too thrown in. April of 82,  Feb of 83, March of 84 just to name a few brighter spots.  
 

Thanksgiving of 89 had a nice snowstorm.  

Funny you mention that Thanksgiving storm. We were on the Cape in Truro for Thanksgiving. (was James around then?) I remember waking up and hearing a prediction for a dusting to an inch or two. All through the day the forecasters couldn't keep up...we ended up with 17 inches! It was so surreal seeing as before that we had only been to the cape in the summer. And the april '82 I was 12 and babysitting our neighbors house. First adult responsibility and I locked the keys in the house. I trudged through 18 inches of snow and found an unlocked window to sneak in!

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That weekend deal is coming in flatter and flatter each run....the arctic does kind of support stuff trending colder with that...lot of blocking up there right now, so wouldn't be surprised to see further PV lobe pushes south.

Below is the 06z EPS at 96 hours. I marked the ridges/blocks in the arctic/subarctic regions that will be important and then the PV lobe that may impact any potential for colder solutions.....we want to force that a bit further south. It has trended steadily south in the past 4 or 5 runs.

 

Dec8_06zEPS96.png

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

That weekend deal is coming in flatter and flatter each run....the arctic does kind of support stuff trending colder with that...lot of blocking up there right now, so wouldn't be surprised to see further PV lobe pushes south.

Below is the 06z EPS at 96 hours. I marked the ridges/blocks in the arctic/subarctic regions that will be important and then the PV lobe that may impact any potential for colder solutions.....we want to force that a bit further south. It has trended steadily south in the past 4 or 5 runs.

 

Dec8_06zEPS96.png

I will be in MD, but the weekend deal on the Euro looks more like snow to ice to snow here now versus a driving rainstorm. Some sleet and ZR would definitely create a pack glacier.

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Just now, PhineasC said:

I will be in MD, but the weekend deal on the Euro looks more like snow to ice to snow here now versus a driving rainstorm. Some sleet and ZR would definitely create a pack glacier.

I fully expect NNE to be locked into the cold at the surface in this one now....the only question iswhether the cold is deep enough so that it is more snow versus more sleet/ZR.

Maybe the trend will reverse, but we've seen this movie many times. It will keep trending colder before it does the classic SWFE bump back north inside of 48 or 60 hours.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I fully expect NNE to be locked into the cold at the surface in this one now....the only question iswhether the cold is deep enough so that it is more snow versus more sleet/ZR.

Maybe the trend will reverse, but we've seen this movie many times. It will keep trending colder before it does the classic SWFE bump back north inside of 48 or 60 hours.

Yea....expect this to be the theme of December. People are expecting 50's and driving rains wondering what happened once a winter storm is imminent.

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