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December 2020 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

is southern Michigan on the good side of the gradient lol?

Can’t really tell this far out. It’s a general N/S gradient. I think it had the dividing line between normal and above normal temps really close to your area for a couple weeks. That should mean chances there anyway if it panned out like that. 

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Can’t really tell this far out. It’s a general N/S gradient. I think it had the dividing line between normal and above normal temps really close to your area for a couple weeks. That should mean chances there anyway if it panned out like that. 

Thanks. I know it will change several times anyway, but that's actually how I'd envisioned winter. Riding the gradient in a stormy winter can give us lots of snow (aka 2007-08) but be frustrating for pack lovers. Already had a taste of that this season (6.2" on season, less than 4 full days of full cover).

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Is there any chance at all of the cutter triple pointing this wee, so we don’t spend two days of 50’s and dews to N Maine

Yes it’s possible. But gonna need to see some trends tonight and tomorrow. We’ve seen the trend of the angle of approach come in flatter over the past 24-36h but it’s still not enough. Need a bigger jump. 

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5 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Pretty cool sat shot today . Look at places in W CT like Wolcott . Shows elevation where snow fell

lEhmwaU.jpg

It's funny when I look close at my town, I can pick out the individual fields (like the town park, and skyline farm) because they are the really white spots.

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36 minutes ago, RDRY said:

The 17th-18th overrunning/southern system combo on the GFS is a bit reminiscent of February 8-11 of 1995.

Did you mean 1994? 1994-95 was a terrible snow winter in SNE.   We had a big storm running over us that buried NNE in February but that was it.

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1 hour ago, SnowLover22 said:

BS that the Nina will weaken or bs on a snowy winter or both. Which one is it?

Weakening la nina leading to a big second half...if we have a good second half, then it will be due to a SSW. There is a lag between ENSO and the atmosphere....climo dictates that la nina winters do not have big finishes.

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12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Weakening la nina leading to a big second half...if we have a good second half, then it will be due to a SSW. There is a lag between ENSO and the atmosphere....climo dictates that la nina winters do not have big finishes.

1955-56.   Biggest March of my life

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I am pretty optimistic for you guys for March. My NAO indicator seems to have worked at least a little bit for December, with the index at least nominally negative. I think the blend I had said -0.2 for December. It had March more negative than December.

Nino 4 has been following 2007 (but warmer) all year. If it continues to do that, you do have a strong wet signal for the Ohio Valley in February, and then a weak wet signal for New England. Should still be cold enough for a lot of snow. Nino 4 is likely to finish Dec/Jan the coldest it has been in 5-10 years, maybe more. The warm signal from a cold Nino 4 January doesn't really extend into all of New England either in February. It took until Dec/Jan but the 2007-08 La Nina did see Nino 4 eventually drop below 27.0C, which is very cold for that area, even by 1951-2010 averages. It should happen in the next six weeks. You'll know the effect has kicked in if you see a big snowstorm in say, Kentucky, in mid-January or February. 

Nino-4-cold-January.png

Also a cold signal for you guys in Spring. The correlations aren't super strong, but with Nino 4 set to run ~2C colder in the next few months compared to last year, it should have a big imprint on the patterns. We're not getting jack out here once the Spring correlations kick in, winter is less of an issue though

Nino-4-cold-winter.png

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