December 2020 Discussion

[SnoSki14]

29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Anafrontal snow, Inverted trough snows, backlash, SNE severe weather and big wind events in the Merrimack valley.

Obviously there are times when these do in fact work out, but more often than not, they end up an artifact of modeling.

 

You can add the rogue SNE hurricane to that list too. 

[ORH_wxman]

It's not a great pattern but watch that block N of AK....that can sometimes wreak havoc on the modeling as arctic shortwaves dive down east of it and perhaps give us some colder solutions than guidance currently suggests. We've seen that plenty of times in the past....it's basically the opposite mechanism of how when there is a death vortex over AK, we often see things trend warmer the closer to verification we get.

You can see the progression of the block N of AK...it eventually retrogrades and weakens, but it is something to watch because that type of block usually biases results a bit colder. Also watch the eastern NAO stuff as well.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's not a great pattern but watch that block N of AK....that can sometimes wreak havoc on the modeling as arctic shortwaves dive down east of it and perhaps give us some colder solutions than guidance currently suggests. We've seen that plenty of times in the past....it's basically the opposite mechanism of how when there is a death vortex over AK, we often see things trend warmer the closer to verification we get.

You can see the progression of the block N of AK...it eventually retrogrades and weakens, but it is something to watch because that type of block usually biases results a bit colder. Also watch the eastern NAO stuff as well.

 

Yea, that doesn't look abysmal to me. I didn't expect December 1998 of December 1999 before the season, nor do I now.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, that doesn't look abysmal to me. I didn't expect December 1998 of December 1999 before the season, nor do I now.

It's pretty clear that Canada will have some cold....at least for most of the Dec 12-20 period. Less clear beyond that. Now if we can get some timing, then we'll certainly have a chance or two.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's pretty clear that Canada will have some cold....at least for most of the Dec 12-20 period. Less clear beyond that. Now if we can get some timing, then we'll certainly have a chance or two.

What we know is the odds of a whiff are pretty low with a pattern like this, so its all about having enough cold in the bank, which we should. This doesn't mean that it will be pretty, and it may involve some advisory 2-5" stuff to ice and rain, but its still snow.

[WinterWolf]

And sometimes (we’ve seen it happen), great patterns just don’t produce for whatever reason? Or they don’t produce what we winter enthusiasts may want.  And sometimes the not so good looking patterns produce just fine, especially when you get some random timing that benefits the area etc etc....   I think that’s where we are currently as Will just pointed out. It’s not a text book gorgeous pattern... but maybe this plain Jane gives us a couple Chances going forward?  

[Spanks45]

I told my wife after no shave November, I will continue with no shave until we shovel....hopefully it doesn't last until next winter

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I told my wife after no shave November, I will continue with no shave until we shovel....hopefully it doesn't last until next winter

That’s pretty good. I should try that. 

[Great Snow 1717]

20 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I told my wife after no shave November, I will continue with no shave until we shovel....hopefully it doesn't last until next winter

[MJO812]

[weathafella]

3 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

I've been to Winter Carnival 3 times.  The best city in North American to feel like you are not in North American.  Great walking, great food, great boutique hotels.  Please keep posting and send pics!!!

OT bit we stayed in this amazing boutique hotel in the summer of 2017 in QC.  My wife picked it out and I was skeptical but it was an amazing experience 

[klw]

12 Z GFS with the annual Grinch storm falling on Festivus this year.  It is hour 384 but in our hearts we know it will happen as it does almost every year. (Yes I know it gives me snow as shown)  We could have started the thread for this back in June had we wanted.

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, klw said:

12 Z GFS with the annual Grinch storm falling on Festivus this year.  It is hour 384 but in our hearts we know it will happen as it does almost every year. (Yes I know it gives me snow as shown)  We could have started the thread for this back in June had we wanted.

 

 

It’s not a cutter as depicted. So there’s that 

[Typhoon Tip]

The 12z GFS shows some of the headaches with progressive correction handling -

I mean, I've noticed that intense open wave, where "punching" is most apropos through the OV at 132 or so hours, has been speeding up in placement.  TT's nice "Previous" option ...clicking backward demos this  ..at least 4 clicks worth - didn't bother going back more than that as it's squarely too far into bun-time ranges ....

But, the GFS is speeding that up without actually gaining latitude - it's like it's adjusting the x-coordinate ( crucially perhaps ) toward the last decade persistent raging hard-on hemispheric velocity and really should be stretching the flow in lieu of winding things up.  

It may not mean much ..it may mean everything ..but, a flatter system doesn't erode cold as readily, and as others have noted, the -AO anchored cold in Canada seems resistant to change heading into the late mid/extended range.  

Heh...not impossible -

 

 

 

[Snowstorms]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's not a great pattern but watch that block N of AK....that can sometimes wreak havoc on the modeling as arctic shortwaves dive down east of it and perhaps give us some colder solutions than guidance currently suggests. We've seen that plenty of times in the past....it's basically the opposite mechanism of how when there is a death vortex over AK, we often see things trend warmer the closer to verification we get.

You can see the progression of the block N of AK...it eventually retrogrades and weakens, but it is something to watch because that type of block usually biases results a bit colder. Also watch the eastern NAO stuff as well.

 

I'm assuming that's the La Nina fighting to take control of the current pattern? Looks like a hybrid Aleutian ridge. Aleutian ridges are a bit too far west to allow us in the East to cash in on true arctic air as opposed to the EPO but it'll at least get the source region cold. It's way above average across Western Canada this week. It's 40F in Winnipeg today and their average high is supposed to be 18F. That block across the Ural region looks intriguing too. Didn’t Dec 08 feature a prominent North Pacific ridge?

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s not a cutter as depicted. So there’s that 

That'll be another Cleveland superbomb in a week.

[Typhoon Tip]

This GGEM solution might be a hoot if/when all that cold loading up in Ontario ...  ...uh, if it were not D9, just sayn'

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This GGEM solution might be a hoot if/when all that cold loading up in Ontario ...  ...uh, if it were not D9, just sayn'

 

That is a page right out of the Dec 2007 playbook.

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is a page right out of the Dec 2007 playbook.

That would be a fun event. Even have a CAD sig in the isobars on the d10 GGEM.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is a page right out of the Dec 2007 playbook.

Almost looks like 12/16/07 with that high location. Maybe shove it southeast just a shade.

[WinterWolf]

24 minutes ago, klw said:

12 Z GFS with the annual Grinch storm falling on Festivus this year.  It is hour 384 but in our hearts we know it will happen as it does almost every year. (Yes I know it gives me snow as shown)  We could have started the thread for this back in June had we wanted.

 

 

957mb lol..it’ll be gone next run..so no worries. 

[UnitedWx]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is a page right out of the Dec 2007 playbook.

IIRC..and I probably don't, weren't there several systems that looked to be rain days out but the -AO helped keep just enough cold air in place? I need to find my old snowplowing logbook, its all in there

[Hazey]

This lack of cold air is really going to hurt. We need an artic dump to shake things up.

[40/70 Benchmark]

44 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Almost looks like 12/16/07 with that high location. Maybe shove it southeast just a shade.

I was thinking the same thing.

[ORH_wxman]

36 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

IIRC..and I probably don't, weren't there several systems that looked to be rain days out but the -AO helped keep just enough cold air in place? I need to find my old snowplowing logbook, its all in there

We saw this in Dec 2008....here is the 5-6 day forecast for 12/19/08...the last image was how it turned out. Doesn't alays work out like that of course. That was 12 years ago....but even now the models have a lot of toruble in Nina with blocking up near AK.

 

 

 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We saw this in Dec 2008....here is the 5-6 day forecast for 12/19/08...the last image was how it turned out. Doesn't alays work out like that of course. That was 12 years ago....but even now the models have a lot of toruble in Nina with blocking up near AK.

 

 

 

Ugh. I remember living through that one at PSU and it being a nasty ice event. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was thinking the same thing.

See ...I don't think the pattern's as bad as merely 'not having a big deal to gawk cinema over' - ...  just speaking in general here -

I mean, just utilizing the GEFs index as a guide may come with it's own limitations and risks therein ...but, the PNA is neutral - not demonstratively negative in the individual members, or in the very tightly concerted curve at CPC as I'm sure folks can see for themselves.. - not a novel observation pointing that out..But, since we've had spent 10 days robustly positive prior to the neutrality of the curve...and it doesn't actually go neggie, that's like Newtonian there in that objects in motion will stay in said motion until acted upon by a force sufficient to change their trajectory - 

The PNA --> relay into N/A may sort of vestigial maintain some of the trafficking ... and I think some of these weird solutions are trying to hint that way - ... I love synergistic emergence - it's my new obsession. Hahha... I know I know...

But, with the AO tending to remain negative and the NAO ... well, I think that part of its' overrated for now anywho ... It's not a bad appeal from an teleconnector stand point to eb -AO with a neutral PNA driven PNAP underneath... 

Ice storms have began that way for one.. We could end up split flow ..? Hey - which can be MARvelous overproducing patterns for a myriad of reason...etc...   It's not all doom - not that anyone thinks so..  Just sayn' 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

That would be a fun event. Even have a CAD sig in the isobars on the d10 GGEM.

I know ... to the less experienced they think that's a raging E wind everywhere - noooo way man ... that's a magnificent burier jet sig there...talking 35 kt N, 900 mb ... - 6 C dp cryo hose funneling east of the cordillera ... 

I mean, not saying it's happenin' or nothin' ...but it's still fun as a pass-time to surmise based upon these "conductors" of imagination's symphony - 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

See ...I don't think the pattern's as bad as merely 'not having a big deal to gawk cinema over' - ...  just speaking in general here -

I mean, just utilizing the GEFs index as a guide may come with it's own limitations and risks therein ...but, the PNA is neutral - not demonstratively negative in the individual members, or in the very tightly concerted curve at CPC as I'm sure folks can see for themselves.. - not a novel observation pointing that out..But, since we've had spent 10 days robustly positive prior to the neutrality of the curve...and it doesn't actually go neggie, that's like Newtonian there in that objects in motion will stay in said motion until acted upon by a force sufficient to change - 

The PNA --> relay into N/A may sort of vestigial maintain some of the trafficking ... and I think some of these weird solutions are trying to hint that way - ... I love synergistic emergence - it's my new obsession. Hahha... I know I know...

But, with the AO tending to remain negative and the NAO ... well, I think that part of its' overrated for now anywho ... It's not a bad appeal from an teleconnector stand point to eb -AO with a neutral PNA driven PNAP underneath... 

Ice storms have began that way for one.. We could end up split flow ..? Hey - which can be MARvelous overproducing patterns for a myriad of reason...etc...   It's not all doom - not that anyone thinks so..  Just sayn' 

This is a really messy map below (96 hours on EPS and 120 hours respectively)...to agree with your point. I don't think we can write off even the weekend event as a total lost cause. Particularly for NNE. We'd need more help in SNE for obvious reasons, but you can see what is going on there....a block in the WPO region (building and rolling over into the EPO domain) with a pretty soft AO/NAO....almost a "ridge bridge" forming there. You also have split flow out west. Add it all up, and that's the type of look where you can get corrections to colder outcomes. If not enough in time to help this weekend, perhaps the event behind that one.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We saw this in Dec 2008....here is the 5-6 day forecast for 12/19/08...the last image was how it turned out. Doesn't alays work out like that of course. That was 12 years ago....but even now the models have a lot of toruble in Nina with blocking up near AK.

 

 

 

I expect a similar outcome here.