December 2020 Discussion

[Whineminster]

38 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Covid ruined it for this winter, but not enough of us visit the best snow town in eastern NA-Quebec City

Do they get that much snow? Or is it just so cold they keep pack.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

I think we’ll have our chances...in SNE.  

Agree.

[Heisy]

This was the ukie at 144 hours, really good setup imo,  it looks way better than the euro did at the same time frame and the euro was relatively close..could definitely imagine a low developing behind the initial wave if we saw beyond here...spacing has to be perfect and I’m a bit worried about the fast flow and any west coast shortwaves rushing things behind this...

(Animation taken from another forum)

[Hazey]

Damn that storm on Tuesday is tantalizing close for Leo and I. Just need to nudge that a bit west. Long shot but still a bit of time for a favourable correction.


#NovaScotiaStrong

[natedizel]

2 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

Covid ruined it for this winter, but not enough of us visit the best snow town in eastern NA-Quebec City

Covid ruined everything this year. From my Rammstein concert to everyone's freedom to live how they want and like. Hopefully vaccine saves us or we man up and deal with it 

[Snowstorms]

1 hour ago, Whineminster said:

Do they get that much snow? Or is it just so cold they keep pack.

Quebec city averages 120" a year. They got 220" back in 07-08 lol. 

[weathafella]

2 hours ago, Whineminster said:

Do they get that much snow? Or is it just so cold they keep pack.

Think about it...all those lows bombing through the maritimes, going up over us, or clippers blowing up in NNE....all give quebec nice snow.  It’s a snowy place!

[Heisy]

2nd run in a row showing ridging into Greenland on the GFS. Looks like a classic SWFE on the day 9-10 range too

[Heisy]

Waaaay out in time, but an example how you guys can still cash in this pattern if that blocking is real. Zonal flow for the most part but just enough cold air is forced south with the Greenland ridge

 

[MJO812]

CMC tries to get a storm going along the front just like the Euro did. It also shows another storm at 240. Active run.

[Heisy]

Would need a nice Anafront type deal on that day 7 thing. 

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Would need a nice Anafront type deal on that day 7 thing. 

Lol....isn’t that among the fraud 5?

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Would need a nice Anafront type deal on that day 7 thing. 

CMC and Euro shows it but it rarely works out

[Heisy]

Ukie looks good, nice energy behind the main front... and it worked in 2015! (I think that was the year)

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Wentzadelphia said:

2nd run in a row showing ridging into Greenland on the GFS. Looks like a classic SWFE on the day 9-10 range too

Guidance is going to waffle...that is what guidance does. Just gotta trust your gut and preseason work...and both tell me we do okay this month.

Maybe I will be wrong...it happened alot the past couple of years.

We'll see.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Lol....isn’t that among the fraud 5?

Yes.

[masonwoods]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes.

Regarding ENSO: If Nino 3.4 reverts back into weak LaNina territory by Jan, what does that mean for later Winter in New England?

[Mothman]

If one decides to go ahead and dig a little deeper than just "playing the numbers" of a statistically-likely warm forecast, the last several runs of the american model depict nonstop cutters to the west of this region, i.e. the midwest and western New York, and several of those are all rain even for Toledo. I've not looked at the Euro, but I imagine it is singing a similar melody. 

The models are not to be trusted, they say.....maybe we'll get a miracle. I don't think this winter will be as balmy as the last couple, but I do think that these small scale weather trends reflect a large change that will have to be accepted sooner rather than later. 

A peaceful day to you all!

[Damage In Tolland]

Moths everywhere?

[Baroclinic Zone]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Moths everywhere?

Few, but nothing like the past.  They've been largely controlled thru the introduction of a parasitic fly.

[mahk_webstah]

37 minutes ago, Mothman said:

If one decides to go ahead and dig a little deeper than just "playing the numbers" of a statistically-likely warm forecast, the last several runs of the american model depict nonstop cutters to the west of this region, i.e. the midwest and western New York, and several of those are all rain even for Toledo. I've not looked at the Euro, but I imagine it is singing a similar melody. 

The models are not to be trusted, they say.....maybe we'll get a miracle. I don't think this winter will be as balmy as the last couple, but I do think that these small scale weather trends reflect a large change that will have to be accepted sooner rather than later. 

A peaceful day to you all!

All we need is a little bit of blocking to our north northeast to force swfe or Miller Bs. If we get that bit of blocking it will show up in these modeled forecasts but a little to the events.  Maybe we start to see that aft this weekend.  Truthfully, I’m kind of expecting that.

[Mothman]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

All we need is a little bit of blocking to our north northeast to force swfe or Miller Bs. If we get that bit of blocking it will show up in these modeled forecasts but a little to the events.  Maybe we start to see that aft this weekend.  Truthfully, I’m kind of expecting that.

Would love to see it! Models have been all time bad. I think we have yet to see all the factors that will play into this winters weather, and I can’t complain about the dustings so far...some Decembers you can’t even get that.

[QCwx]

11 hours ago, Whineminster said:

Do they get that much snow? Or is it just so cold they keep pack.

We keep the snow pack, and it's building throughout the winter. We do get rains/FZRN even in midwinter, due to cutters to travel to our NW, but temperatures rarely rise above 40F due to cold damming , thanks to the Appalachians and the Laurentian Mountains keeping the cold in the lower levels.

We do not get the huge snow storns that the Maritimes or even coastal New Englands get, I guess that's because we're too far away from the ocean.

2007-08 was epic, the snow depth reached most roof levels, making it impossible to see the houses from the street in the city. In August 2008, there were still traces of snow in the lots where they dump the snow that was plowed from the street. In the mountains north of us, there was a layer of 7 feet of snow on the ground.

[JC-CT]

9 hours ago, weathafella said:

Lol....isn’t that among the fraud 5?

 

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes.

Now I'm curious what are the other 4? Backend snow? James' OES? NYC white christmas?

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, masonwoods said:

Regarding ENSO: If Nino 3.4 reverts back into weak LaNina territory by Jan, what does that mean for later Winter in New England?

I don't think it means anything for winter, given the lag that exists between ENSO and the atmosphere.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Mothman said:

If one decides to go ahead and dig a little deeper than just "playing the numbers" of a statistically-likely warm forecast, the last several runs of the american model depict nonstop cutters to the west of this region, i.e. the midwest and western New York, and several of those are all rain even for Toledo. I've not looked at the Euro, but I imagine it is singing a similar melody. 

The models are not to be trusted, they say.....maybe we'll get a miracle. I don't think this winter will be as balmy as the last couple, but I do think that these small scale weather trends reflect a large change that will have to be accepted sooner rather than later. 

A peaceful day to you all!

The very same models that are now implying a warm December were emphatically signalling otherwise a mere several days ago....and this was before they were all very warm previously before that. Unstable to say the least. This is not about "accepting" anything, at least with me...I am anticipating a mild winter with slightly below average snowfall, however, I do feel as though December will be more wintry than guidance currently suggests.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

 

Now I'm curious what are the other 4? Backend snow? James' OES? NYC white christmas?

Anafrontal snow, Inverted trough snows, backlash, SNE severe weather and big wind events in the Merrimack valley.

Obviously there are times when these do in fact work out, but more often than not, they end up an artifact of modeling.

 

[WinterWolf]

51 minutes ago, QCwx said:

We keep the snow pack, and it's building throughout the winter. We do get rains/FZRN even in midwinter, due to cutters to travel to our NW, but temperatures rarely rise above 40F due to cold damming , thanks to the Appalachians and the Laurentian Mountains keeping the cold in the lower levels.

We do not get the huge snow storns that the Maritimes or even coastal New Englands get, I guess that's because we're too far away from the ocean.

2007-08 was epic, the snow depth reached most roof levels, making it impossible to see the houses from the street in the city. In August 2008, there were still traces of snow in the lots where they dump the snow that was plowed from the street. In the mountains north of us, there was a layer of 7 feet of snow on the ground.

Been up that way and through Quebec City and then over/through the Laurentians quite a few times, to go sledding in Jonquere/Chicoutimi area, now called Saugenay City I believe.  Gorgeous and very wintry area for sure. 

[mahk_webstah]

59 minutes ago, QCwx said:

We keep the snow pack, and it's building throughout the winter. We do get rains/FZRN even in midwinter, due to cutters to travel to our NW, but temperatures rarely rise above 40F due to cold damming , thanks to the Appalachians and the Laurentian Mountains keeping the cold in the lower levels.

We do not get the huge snow storns that the Maritimes or even coastal New Englands get, I guess that's because we're too far away from the ocean.

2007-08 was epic, the snow depth reached most roof levels, making it impossible to see the houses from the street in the city. In August 2008, there were still traces of snow in the lots where they dump the snow that was plowed from the street. In the mountains north of us, there was a layer of 7 feet of snow on the ground.

I've been to Winter Carnival 3 times.  The best city in North American to feel like you are not in North American.  Great walking, great food, great boutique hotels.  Please keep posting and send pics!!!

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The very same models that are not implying a warm December were emphatically signalling otherwise a mere several days ago....and this was before they were all very warm previously before that. Unstable to say the least. This is not about "accepting" anything, at least with me...I am anticipating a mild winter with slightly below average snowfall, however, I do feel as though December will be more wintry than guidance currently suggestes.

This.  Some folks live and die with each op run...that is a lesson in futility, and not the way to go through the winter...at least not for me.  And even the ensembles have been erratic at times too.  
 

They’re gonna waffle, as you stated that’s what models do. Climo is heading in our favor now, let’s see how things play out.  At least That’s how I feel now.