December 2020 Discussion

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

And there was also support for (the pattern)getting good now or very shortly...that changed fast too.  3 wks away is a long time. 

We actually have a pretty stout EPO ridge this week/weekend but we get a cutter with it (most likely). Shows the risk of EPO ridges at times. 

Theres probably a window behind the cutter to get something. 

[TalcottWx]

OT... But just a reminder... If you haven't joined the subforum Facebook group and are interested... Here you go.. 

It's just a back up if the forum ever undergoes maintenance or the website has issues during events

https://www.facebook.com/groups/Amwxsne/?ref=share

[WinterWolf]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

We actually have a pretty stout EPO ridge this week/weekend but we get a cutter with it (most likely). Shows the risk of EPO ridges at times. 

Theres probably a window behind the cutter to get something. 

Yup...it’s all a gamble.  
 

I’m not worried about the pig setting up shop all winter.  If some want to be worried about some snapshot 3 wks into the future, we’ll that’s up to them.  We’ll have our chances going forward...and climo is gaining for us now also. 

[mahk_webstah]

34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it should help at least keep some cold nearby. It’s going to be above average for that period but that look still gives a chance for something unlike the more classic Death Star pattern. 

 

I think late Dec 2007 was very good in NNE, yes?  I didn't move here until the following year.  Late December with cold air nearby is a good bet for many of us.  I think that 2007-08 winter didn't feature a lot of big storms, but light and moderate ones were frequent.  I've learned not to like some of the patterns that the MA and SNE like.

[Go Kart Mozart]

2 hours ago, JC-CT said:

I say that being a child of the 80s and I have no idea if CT ever had full season packs in the 70s.

76-77.  Pack from Thanksgiving onward, maybe a few brief gaps.  The thing is, we never had a lot of snow on the ground, but it was insanely cold that winter.  I can remember walking to my junior high school by crossing the ice on the mighty Saugatuck.  The Saugatuck in Westport is a tidal estuary, so normally it's a suicidal crossing.  But in 76-77 you could have driven a car across.  I believe Chesapeake Bay froze solid that year.

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Christmas looks toasty 

I mean, I'm not a met but doesn't that imply some chances with systems coming under the trough and getting forced south by th blocking in  the north atlantic?   wouldn't that give us chances,  though it is clearly not a perfect pattern.

[Go Kart Mozart]

Keep your eyes on the GOM/SE coast, after the cutter:

[WinterWolf]

45 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

So true. As a kid of 8,  the blizzard of 78 was the storm that focused my interest in weather.. then had to live through most of the 80s 

I was 9, and would turn 10 about 5 wks later when the Blizzard of 78 hit. That was a very good winter obviously.   The 80’s had a lot of suck..but there were some bright spots too thrown in. April of 82,  Feb of 83, March of 84 just to name a few brighter spots.  
 

Thanksgiving of 89 had a nice snowstorm.  

[Great Snow 1717]

5 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

76-77.  Pack from Thanksgiving onward, maybe a few brief gaps.  The thing is, we never had a lot of snow on the ground, but it was insanely cold that winter.

A great winter. 

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

76-77.  Pack from Thanksgiving onward, maybe a few brief gaps.  The thing is, we never had a lot of snow on the ground, but it was insanely cold that winter.  I can remember walking to my junior high school by crossing the ice on the mighty Saugatuck.  The Saugatuck in Westport is a tidal estuary, so normally it's a suicidal crossing.  But in 76-77 you could have driven a car across.  I believe Chesapeake Bay froze solid that year.

Mid to late 70’s were known for almost wire to wire pack. That’s what I remember. You never didn’t have pack 

[Go Kart Mozart]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I was 9, and would turn 10 about 5 wks later when the Blizzard of 78 hit. That was a very good winter obviously.   The 80’s had a lot of suck..but there were some bright spots too thrown in. April of 82,  Feb of 83, March of 84 just to name a few brighter spots. 

78 was my freshman year at college, so I missed those two great storms, but no complaints, I was in SBN for the Cleveland Super Bomb.

I became weather-aware in the late 60s, and here is what I remember of double digit snow storms in SWCT (Westport):

• Lindsay storm
• Xmas night 69, we hit 10" when the occluded front crossed us, that went on to be VT's biggest ever, I believe.
• Two in 78, which I missed.
• April 82
• February 83
• Super Storm of 93

Things changed after that, and double digit storms became common faire for the next 25 years.

[Allsnow]

29 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yup...it’s all a gamble.  
 

I’m not worried about the pig setting up shop all winter.  If some want to be worried about some snapshot 3 wks into the future, we’ll that’s up to them.  We’ll have our chances going forward...and climo is gaining for us now also. 

The pig isn’t in Ak. It’s still in Canada so it protects them from getting flooded with pac puke. If that would to happen you can write off the following two weeks IMO. Not saying I expect that

[Allsnow]

38 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

just curious, are eps to 360hr on any free site?

@bluewave I believe has a site where you can view it for free. 

[kdxken]

5 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yup... we still need the rain here... so bring on the cutters.

What is it with rain and you people from Taunton?

[Heisy]

4 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

78 was my freshman year at college, so I missed those two great storms, but no complaints, I was in SBN for the Cleveland Super Bomb.

I became weather-aware in the late 60s, and here is what I remember of double digit snow storms in SWCT (Westport):

• Lindsay storm
• Xmas night 69, we hit 10" when the occluded front crossed us, that went on to be VT's biggest ever, I believe.
• Two in 78, which I missed.
• April 82
• February 83
• Super Storm of 93

Things changed after that, and double digit storms became common faire for the next 25 years.

That’s the thing. People seem to complain a lot these days, especially in philly, but in the last 2 decades you can’t really doubt we’ve been spoiled with major events....

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The pig isn’t in Ak. It’s still in Canada so it protects them from getting flooded with pac puke. If that would to happen you can write off the following two weeks IMO. Not saying I expect that

I think we’ll have our chances...in SNE.  

[ORH_wxman]

26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Mid to late 70’s were known for almost wire to wire pack. That’s what I remember. You never didn’t have pack 

The only winter in the mid/late 1970s that came close where you were is prob 76-77 but even that winter had most of December with no pack after the late November snow was torched away by a cutter. 

Ditto ‘77-78 but even less close. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

I had almost wire to wire pack last winter.  I think two days in January around the 18th broke that

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I think we’ll have our chances...in SNE.  

All I’m saying is it looks hostile around that timeframe. The mjo forcing is bad and the -AAM keeps the Niña look. I don’t think it’s a surprise that we are getting more of a Niña look for late December. TBD how bad it gets. As long as you keep the vortex in Canada you just need to buckle the flow. I’m not trying to steal your snow 

[Go Kart Mozart]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The only winter in the mid/late 1970s that came close where you were is prob 76-77 but even that winter had most of December with no pack after the late November snow was torched away by a cutter. 

Ditto ‘77-78 but even less close. 

In 77, I came home for Christmas break, and Westport was not yet on the scoreboard...0" to date.  Meanwhile, SBN was at 54" when I left, and ended at 180" for the season.  I can remember my sophmore year getting 100" in SBN, and thinking...this winter sucks!

[ORH_wxman]

17 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I had almost wire to wire pack last winter.  I think two days in January around the 18th broke that

Probably the ugliest above average pack duration winter of all time up there. I wonder how many days it was a crusty 2 or 3”. 

 

[JC-CT]

1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Keep your eyes on the GOM/SE coast, after the cutter:

Yeah but it needs some breathing room. Easily possible at this range

[HoarfrostHubb]

32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Probably the ugliest above average pack duration winter of all time up there. I wonder how many days it was a crusty 2 or 3”. 

 

A bunch for sure.  It was very strange

[MJO812]

Gfs has a trough in the east on 18z while it had a ridge in the east in the long range 

[SJonesWX]

3 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

I think late Dec 2007 was very good in NNE, yes?  I didn't move here until the following year.  Late December with cold air nearby is a good bet for many of us.  I think that 2007-08 winter didn't feature a lot of big storms, but light and moderate ones were frequent.  I've learned not to like some of the patterns that the MA and SNE like.

you would have liked Dec 2007. no real big storms, just SWFE after SWFE. It seemed like we were getting 6-7” every 3-4 days.

[Typhoon Tip]

Going from an under performance into a zonal/progressive appeal that'll likely average abv normal as the base-line... probably is a wrong rub for many in here.  lol.. not rubbing it in; it is what it is.

But, my experience is that these sort of modeled looks don't last - they tend to precede an emergence one way or the other. Intuitively that makes sense..The atmosphere is more proficient when if forms pattern - and this thing agreed upon by the bevy of operationals... being non-committal suggestive of like -PNAP/+PNAP in oscillation ... doesn't represent that. 

I think with the AO trying to average neg ...and the PNA arguably edging positive ... it "could" be a reload black-out period where patience is required.

That's the only 'objective optimism' ..otherwise, on the complexion surface it's not fun, no -  ... not going to candy coat that.  But again...it's not a stable look - that's a morality victory.

[MJO812]

 The vortex  has been getting attacked and it looks like it will continue.  Hopefully that means great news for us soon.

[mahk_webstah]

46 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

you would have liked Dec 2007. no real big storms, just SWFE after SWFE. It seemed like we were getting 6-7” every 3-4 days.

Greatest pack year ever eh?  When we moved up here March 31 there was still 24 inches of snow in the yard. I think it got close to 50 inches on the level.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just gimme a QPF event within 3.5 hours drive time w a low tracking East of Hudson valley and that will work 

[mahk_webstah]

Covid ruined it for this winter, but not enough of us visit the best snow town in eastern NA-Quebec City