December 2020 Discussion

[CoastalWx]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

the best kind!

Still can lead to a little SE ridging as a true -NAO is closer to Davis Straits. However, it helps pin the PV on our side.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Still can lead to a little SE ridging as a true -NAO is closer to Davis Straits. However, it helps pin the PV on our side.

NAO east showed up a lot in my analog composites.

[Typhoon Tip]

21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

SSW coming up?

What/how WSI package do you subscribe too for all these cool extra things?

Have WSI model lab from school but that just has a few things. 

mmm ... mixed ideas.   

Statistically, there are diametric signals - like... the QBO is now four months positive and gaining strength - at least in last check in the 30 hPa level, ..or about mid depth along it's vertical tidal journey, ... it was over 10 m/s in the westerly ( positive) phase, and given the previous 3 months, probably continues to rise. 

That is against the SSW statistics but ... I don't know what the qualifications are honestly?  I don't know if that limitation (statistically) like kicks in at 5, 10 ... 15 or 20 m/s... Or, what level..I mean the QBO really terms deeper in the atmosphere before it's momentum washes out and then it starts anew from the other direction - etc..etc... But, 30 is mid depth, and looking at all QBO's ..it's nearing moderate strength so heh - 

That's a

b, we are in a pretty fantastic solar minimum.  ... having said that, deliberately just to mock me, God threw this at us:   "CME MISSES EARTH: A CME launched into space by a major solar flare on Nov. 29th has missed Earth. This is hardly a surprise. The blast site was located behind the sun's eastern limb; at most, a glancing blow was possible. Auroras watchers can take solice in the fact that direct hits will surely come in the months ahead as Solar Cycle 25 continues to intensify. It's just a matter of time. Aurora alerts: SMS Text..."

he's such a dyck - 

anyway, excluding a Carrington Event swooping down just in time to really give us a cure for the Pandemic ... we are in fact in a solar minimum over the preceding several months of summer,...allowing reduced UVM penetration into the polar domain,... where by theoretically, ozone has increased residence for avoiding being electromagnetically broken down ... ( UV light does that to ozone).  

Increased ozone is a thermal trap ... such that as planetary waves terminate at high altitudes/latitudes ... ( WAA termination )... the heat is dumped into the PV where the ozone absorbs and viola -...flashes a warm bubble... that then penetrates down due to normal planetary mechanics of the vortex... Interacts with the tropopause...increases the stability .. .PV breaks down, blocking ensues ...  -AO

So, we have a bad QBO and a good solar ...  offsetting - 

Dice?  ...I dunno 

I'll also point out though...that look there .. "kidney beaning " of the vortex ...wouldn't be related to SSW - it can.. but not in this case.  The entire SSW phenomenon --> AO forcing is a huge temporal ..protracted affair. It's like a 20 day gestation.  Warm node appears...starts propagating down...it takes 10 days ...then another week to start seeing AO response.  There has been no antecedent warm flashing events in the stratospheric over the poles - unless someone has some extra-double top secret data that hides reality -

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am thinking  more Maine, but we'll see. I expect a lot of systems like that this season in which its a race for them to develop. This is why Maine should clean up. I will get some of them, but not this one IMO.

certainly don't disagree

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Still can lead to a little SE ridging as a true -NAO is closer to Davis Straits. However, it helps pin the PV on our side.

yeah and that SE ridge I feel like buckers things up b/c it shifts the trough axis west and we get these huggers or inland runners. 

[weatherwiz]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mmm ... mixed ideas.   

Statistically, there are diametric signals - like... the QBO is now four months positive and gaining strength - at least in last check in the 30 hPa level, ..or about mid depth along it's vertical tidal journey, ... it was over 10 m/s in the westerly ( positive) phase, and given the previous 3 months, probably continues to rise. 

That is against the SSW statistics but ... I don't know what the qualifications are honestly?  I don't know if that limitation (statistically) like kicks in at 5, 10 ... 15 or 20 m/s... Or, what level..I mean the QBO really terms deeper in the atmosphere before it's momentum washes out and then it starts anew from the other direction - etc..etc... But, 30 is mid depth, and looking at all QBO's ..it's nearing moderate strength so heh - 

That's a

b, we are in a pretty fantastic solar minimum.  ... having said that, deliberately just to mock me, God threw this at us:   "CME MISSES EARTH: A CME launched into space by a major solar flare on Nov. 29th has missed Earth. This is hardly a surprise. The blast site was located behind the sun's eastern limb; at most, a glancing blow was possible. Auroras watchers can take solice in the fact that direct hits will surely come in the months ahead as Solar Cycle 25 continues to intensify. It's just a matter of time. Aurora alerts: SMS Text..."

he's such a dyck - 

anyway, excluding a Carrington Event swooping down just in time to really give us a cure for the Pandemic ... we are in fact in a solar minimum over the preceding several months of summer,...allowing reduced UVM penetration into the polar domain,... where by theoretically, ozone has increased residence for avoiding being electromagnetically broken down ... ( UV light does that to ozone).  

Increased ozone is a thermal trap ... such that as planetary waves terminate at high altitudes/latitudes ... ( WAA termination )... the heat is dumped into the PV where the ozone absorbs and viola -...flashes a warm bubble... that then penetrates down due to normal planetary mechanics of the vortex... Interacts with the tropopause...increases the stability .. .PV breaks down, blocking ensues ...  -AO

So, we have a bad QBO and a good solar ...  offsetting - 

Dice?  ...I dunno 

The other big player here is QBO structure...I wish Sam Lillo still posted here but he did some amazing work with (I am pretty certain he developed this) the MQI. The research showed strong correlation to structure/SSW potential and influences on the stratosphere and upper troposphere. 

Speaking of ozone...I've wanted to look into this but is it possible all that smoke from the wildfires this summer/fall could play a big factor into the stratosphere and how it evolves...like doesn't smoke impact ozone production? 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

the best kind!

West is best.

[mahk_webstah]

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

More of an east based -NAO...ridge poking into eastern Greenland.

I think that is better for more of us, as opposed to those overwhelming Greenland blocks that shove out everything too far south for  us up here.

[Damage In Tolland]

24 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

If it does happen I don't think it will be as intense as shown for these areas...it would be at the tail beginning of an organizing CCB. but given the thermal boundary we will be dealing with fronto should be pretty sick. This could do real well in northeast MA/southern NH.

This is a longitude storm. We should see west do better. NNE in general should do well but for CNE and especially SNE you’ll want to be west 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The other big player here is QBO structure...I wish Sam Lillo still posted here but he did some amazing work with (I am pretty certain he developed this) the MQI. The research showed strong correlation to structure/SSW potential and influences on the stratosphere and upper troposphere. 

Speaking of ozone...I've wanted to look into this but is it possible all that smoke from the wildfires this summer/fall could play a big factor into the stratosphere and how it evolves...like doesn't smoke impact ozone production? 

 

Opposite impact from what looks to evolve, though...it strengthens the PV, which is believed to be what happened last season. Assassinated many outlooks.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is a longitude storm. We should see west do better. NNE in general should do well but for CNE and especially SNE you’ll want to be west 

There are two competing elements....sure, interior elevations stand the best chance at having a colder boundary layer to support snow, but NE locales have a greater likelihood of achieving the dynamics to overcome a marginal boundary layer. 

My guess is its mainly a NNE deal...best of both worlds.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is a longitude storm. We should see west do better. NNE in general should do well but for CNE and especially SNE you’ll want to be west 

Lol, we don’t even know if this thing happens for anybody just yet...at least in SNE, it could go out to sea.
 

Way Too early for who does better or worse. Could be just a cold rain for most still. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

If I had to pick a spot for some accumulation in SNE, its the N ORH hills....no shock.

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

West is best.

for NAO?

I thought we wanted east-based -NAO? With west-based -NAO you run the risk of above-average heights ticking New England which is why if you look at some -NAO composites parts of Maine actually see above-average temperatures. West based also keeps the brunt of the colder airmass into the upper-Midwest with a storm track west of us. 

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Opposite impact from what looks to evolve, though...it strengthens the PV, which is believed to be what happened last season. Assassinated many outlooks.

gotcha...thanks or this information!

ughhh one of these days I can get back into this stuff. 

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There are two competing elements....sure, interior elevations stand the best chance at having a colder boundary layer to support snow, but NE locales have a greater likelihood of achieving the dynamics to overcome a marginal boundary layer. 

My guess is its mainly a NNE deal...best of both worlds.

Haha I know .. it's so funny -  ..it's like after all peregrinations and brilliant insights have avered ... gee, it snows more up north - who woulda thunk

[40/70 Benchmark]

NAM en route back to earth.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

NAM en route back to earth.

We got a new thread for that threat

[leo2000]

46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

More of an east based -NAO...ridge poking into eastern Greenland.

Hmm seems the EPS 12Z is heading in the wrong direction it was showing cold around this time period yesterday and has backed off of it. 

 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

Hmm seems the EPS 12Z is heading in the wrong direction it was showing cold around this time period yesterday and has backed off of it. 

 

Well that’s it then. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Well that’s it then. 

[dryslot]

Its over.

[weatherwiz]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well that’s it then. 

Seems to me like that's catching the "transition period" and is a bit biased towards that. 

[weathafella]

That’s Leo’s 2nd try.

[Hoth]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well that’s it then. 

Time to install.

[MJOatleast7]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There has been no antecedent warm flashing events in the stratospheric over the poles - unless someone has some extra-double top secret data that hides reality -

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Nice winter appeal today. Having our third snow shower of the day now.   

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Nice winter appeal today. Having our third snow shower of the day now.   

Any nudity?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

40 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Any nudity?

Partial...

[TheMainer]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am thinking  more Maine, but we'll see. I expect a lot of systems like that this season in which its a race for them to develop. This is why Maine should clean up. I will get some of them, but not this one IMO.

I'm hoping based on guidance this will be my scene again right about new years day 20 miles south of Greenville Maine with over 2 feet of pack on the ground, can't wait to get back in the groomer.

 

[Ginx snewx]

8 hours ago, TheMainer said:

I'm hoping based on guidance this will be my scene again right about new years day 20 miles south of Greenville Maine with over 2 feet of pack on the ground, can't wait to get back in the groomer.

 

Nice

[dryslot]

15 hours ago, TheMainer said:

I'm hoping based on guidance this will be my scene again right about new years day 20 miles south of Greenville Maine with over 2 feet of pack on the ground, can't wait to get back in the groomer.

 

And i want to be first tracks out right to the handlebar after.