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December 2020 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Hope you are feeling better Ginx

The run to run model consistency makes me feel good all over

One day at a time Dave, thanks. That run is pretty cool and in the windshield wash zone now. So its a 975 up the Hudson to a 975 BM slider. We zone in day by day

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You know ...there may be a fascinating story-line evolving with this particular "winter" storm - ... 

Usually, it comes down to storm track as to whether x or a location gets it, and what ... 

This?  

We may nail down the track guidance surprisingly well ...and still have to now-cast our way through ( specifically ...) whether dynamics succeed in flipping over to snow, and that's a damn peculiar and uneasy metric to have to rely on the model accuracy for I'll tell ya - ...

I mean, we've seen supposed paltry ( modeled ) systems go over the parachutes at 38...

We've seen CCB heads "unjustly" stay cat paws while level 3 green rad slabs away midst 35 F 

I can't recall ..I think it was five years ago 6 years ago Feb 2014 ...but there was a coastal with the Euro had a nice CCB head at 33 F and it stayed rain - in fact I think it busted the model by doing so...  

Anyway, this may end up a unique metrical challenge for NWS Box if they have to decide on Adv/warn or nill based more solely on thermodynamic accuracy

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Looks earlier than all other models. Ideal run for SNE ORH west

Yeah but it's been later and later on each euro run for the past 3-4 runs. At some point the trend will stop. Hopefully it goes one more tick and then stops, lol.

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