December 2020 Discussion

[ORH_wxman]

IF we end up getting another system redevelop along the frontal boundary just offshore with that deep trough around Dec 3 or Dec 4, then it's possible we could see something in first week of December, but I'd put that at a long shot right now.

[Ginx snewx]

Newfoundland with a 2 footer' 60 mph winds expected tonight

[mreaves]

52 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Kevin is in your head..

He's in your head, in your head. 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

That storm on Monday looks like a real stemwinder cutting way west. Screaming soueaster 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

That storm on Monday looks like a real stemwinder cutting way west. Screaming soueaster 

I'm betting it trends more progressive.

[CoastalWx]

Don’t mind a stemmer flipper though. Yanks some cold behind it. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Don’t mind a stemmer flipper though. Yanks some cold behind it. 

Yea, I couldn't care less what it does....just stating what I think.

[CoastalWx]

When the 12z GEFS finish, go on TT or whatever your favorite site is, to view 500mb anomalies in the northern hemi. As you loop it, notice how the trough in AK and GOAK slowly retros and allows the ridging to sort of contract west and help gradually bring colder air into the US.

[weathafella]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

When the 12z GEFS finish, go on TT or whatever your favorite site is, to view 500mb anomalies in the northern hemi. As you loop it, notice how the trough in AK and GOAK slowly retros and allows the ridging to sort of contract west and help gradually bring colder air into the US.

You could see it clearly on last nights eps.  Since it’s an hour earlier where I’m staying I peruse it before going to bed.  Often home too since I tend not to get up before 10–11.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, weathafella said:

You could see it clearly on last nights eps.  Since it’s an hour earlier where I’m staying I peruse it before going to bed.  Often home too since I tend not to get up before 10–11.

Yeah that too. We'll see...think we need patience like Ray said, but I don't have any complaints with that look this early in the game.

[ORH_wxman]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Don’t mind a stemmer flipper though. Yanks some cold behind it. 

 

28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm betting it trends more progressive.

I've been thinking more progressive too for the last couple days, though the 12z models want to stemwind it more aggressively again. I don't mind if that ends up the solution though because it will actually probably give us a better chance of something developing on the backside of that as another shortwave dives in....maybe steal an event in the first week fo December. Low probability, but possible.

[greenmtnwx]

Fact is things are starting to break right in the longer range. Just the fact that we've had such a warm November and odds favor a cooler regime flop (patterns usually last a month or so) at just the right time into mid-December is a good thing. Heights look to rise across the continental divide into Canada and in the North Atlantic. Will it be rocking, who knows. But it certainly looks at least in my estimation to be a better than average 500mb setup as we move into second week of December. It should favor building a better cold source in SE Canada and transport into the east coast. That usually will produce.

 

[CoastalWx]

Euro is pretty amped. South Bend birch bender there. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Let’s really ramp up one of our strongest screamers on record. We’ve had some memorable ones in that timeframe . Several monsters screamers in early and mid 90’s . I recall one that had widespread 65-70mph gusts 

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

I've been thinking more progressive too for the last couple days, though the 12z models want to stemwind it more aggressively again. I don't mind if that ends up the solution though because it will actually probably give us a better chance of something developing on the backside of that as another shortwave dives in....maybe steal an event in the first week fo December. Low probability, but possible.

Yea, I have no issue with a Detroit Demolition......bring it on.

[dryslot]

Its day 10 on the OP euro but that one looks like it could have a shot if it sticks around on the model.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Its day 10 on the OP euro but that one looks like it could have a shot if it sticks around on the model.

I would be absolutely stunned if we make it to 12/15 without another plowable event for the Boston area. I'm not really sweating it...

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Its day 10 on the OP euro but that one looks like it could have a shot if it sticks around on the model.

Unfortunately if the WAR ends up being strong it'll be the Midwest that scores here. 

Still I'm liking the trends we're seeing. Ensembles are pretty good and actually push ridging further north as we progress in December. 

I'm stunned we're entering a strong Nina with this look. Very odd. 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

When the 12z GEFS finish, go on TT or whatever your favorite site is, to view 500mb anomalies in the northern hemi. As you loop it, notice how the trough in AK and GOAK slowly retros and allows the ridging to sort of contract west and help gradually bring colder air into the US.

Eps doing the same 

[Ginx snewx]

34 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Its day 10 on the OP euro but that one looks like it could have a shot if it sticks around on the model.

 

[ORH_wxman]

What's nice is the EPS are resisting rolling the PNA ridge over like on some previous runs, so if that is correct, then we could definitely have some chances in the 2nd week of December...maybe something slightly sooner, though for now, I'd bet against that.

[greenmtnwx]

Those are some helluva looks on the EPS.

[Allsnow]

Just now, greenmtnwx said:

Those are some helluva looks on the EPS.

 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

That would certainly hold some merit going forward.

[greenmtnwx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

What's nice is the EPS are resisting rolling the PNA ridge over like on some previous runs, so if that is correct, then we could definitely have some chances in the 2nd week of December...maybe something slightly sooner, though for now, I'd bet against that.

I agree. The tendency with these PNA ridge out west the last couple of years has been for them to roll right over into the Ohio Valley and be short-lived. Guidance has this sticking around a little longer it would appear, somewhat anchored buy a slower pacific flow and higher heights in north atlantic.

[Allsnow]

Just keeps getting better. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

That is something right out of the modoki el nino December playbook.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

I agree. The tendency with these PNA ridge out west the last couple of years has been for them to roll right over into the Ohio Valley and be short-lived. Guidance has this sticking around a little longer it would appear, somewhat anchored buy a slower pacific flow and higher heights in north atlantic.

The Aleutian low holds pretty firm which keeps the PNA ridge in place...sort of just reloads instead of rolling over....it's a pretty stable setup if you can keep those two pieces in place. Hopefully that prodces some threats after 12/5-12/6 or so.

[weathafella]

Time for us to come back to sne....hopefully next week.

[greenmtnwx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The Aleutian low holds pretty firm which keeps the PNA ridge in place...sort of just reloads instead of rolling over....it's a pretty stable setup if you can keep those two pieces in place. Hopefully that prodces some threats after 12/5-12/6 or so.

Yes, if you get that Aleutian low far enough west to dive that trough into Hawaii you get the responding ridge into W. Canada. Hook that up with some relatively higher heights in the NAtl. and you could be in business.