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December 2020 Discussion


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1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah, I’m all set with the storms that snow down. To Atlanta on the west side while it rains here and the rest of eastern New England 

AEMATT!

It’s so early in the season that I won’t be too upset if it panned out like the NAM shows. In a month, I’ll be more annoyed. 

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wouldn't be a bad solution for winter enthusiast in later innings *IF* that capture is more proficient, because that's probably a frame away from a slow down or even stall while that wind max curls under.   The low does seem to ride across the jet axis ... and ends up on the left entrance/mid stream region of the mlv wind max..  That's what happens during capture scenarios.  Here it's going through the motions but the movie ends at 84 hours so don't know what came next - lol   ...Anyway, once lows get caught in that region of the trough, they tend to slow down as captures do - .  Anyway, pretending for a moment that a slightly more proficient undercutting wind max does in fact take place, the whole column probably flashes to snow as that's typically when the rain snow line does that rapid collapse SE  - right when that happens. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Revenge of runnawayiceberg against all the E MA peeps whole have been stealing his snow for years.

 

Dec2_12zNAMclown.png

He literally has dreams of this. I could see this solution coming up and then he's crossing out lists of people to kill in EMASS, like Steve Buscemi did on Billy Madison. 

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This statement oughta lassou some enthusiasts... 

     ...as far as I'm aware, the NAM has a NW bias - particularly beyond 36 hours ... - with western Atlantic/near-by coastal cyclogenesis scenarios.  

Assuming it's even right about the rapid deepening to and likely beneath 980ness of this thing going by Boston Light/Logan like that... a notion more up the Islands/arm of the Cape fits a plausible correction - 

Which concomitantly means that it's probably a flipping to a colder profile scenario in the interior eastern CT/NW RI, sooner -

To say nothing of the fact that it is entirely f'ing ludicrous to spend this much time on any NAM solution much beyond 30 hours in the first place -

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This statement oughta lassou some enthusiasts... 

     ...as far as I'm aware, the NAM has a NW bias - particularly beyond 36 hours ... - with western Atlantic/near-by coastal cyclogenesis scenarios.  

Assuming it's even right about the rapid deepening to and likely beneath 980ness of this thing going by Boston Light/Logan like that... a notion more up the Islands/arm of the Cape fits a plausible correction - 

Which concomitantly means that it's probably a flipping to a colder profile scenario in the interior eastern CT/NW RI, sooner -

To say nothing of the fact that it is entirely f'ing ludicrous to spend this much time on any NAM solution much beyond 30 hours in the first place -

Yeah I don't think anyone is actually taking this solution that seriously....all one has to do is look at the last 3-4 model runs of any piece of guidance to see how much flip-flopping is going on.

 

I do agree with you that it could be too warm given that type of dynamic solution....I feel like the atmosphere is basically imploding over BID into Buzzards Bay and PYM....that prob collapses the S+ almost to BOS in that scenario....even a model like the NAM prob couldn't resolve that type of mico-nuke.

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’ll take my 15.5” and run! Lol. 

 

Kind of like Feb 2010..when it was a full on blizzard in NYC...and everything Northeast was pouring rain.  Except this gets more of western SNE  as depicted.  
 

Very low probability of that..NAM is tripping as usual.  Nonetheless entertaining. 

I was thinking of that and/or the Millenium storm, super lite version.

 

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I don't know what to make of it.  Looks like it's about to cut over my head...Might be making a stop in Rutland if this keeps up, lol

I wouldn't make any plans off that. Hell if we still have disagreement at 12z, I wouldn't make any decision yet.

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