Typhoon Tip Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 starting to remind me of Feb 2015 ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: starting to remind me of Feb 2015 ... Care to elaborate a tad..doesn’t have to be “war and peace” but you know. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Care to elaborate a tad..doesn’t have to be “war and peace” but you know. Stable-looking wave that puts a piece of the PV over us....one major difference I would contend here is that there is a huge NAO block there....which was not present in 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Stable-looking wave that puts a piece of the PV over us....one major difference I would contend here is that there is a huge NAO block there....which was not present in 2015. Does the block increase opportunities for clippers and East Coast cyclogenesis at lower latitudes versus 2015 ? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Stable-looking wave that puts a piece of the PV over us....one major difference I would contend here is that there is a huge NAO block there....which was not present in 2015. Thanks for the explanation. I would assume that block adds even a lil more intrigue to the mix...would it be safe to assume that from that snapshot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Stable-looking wave that puts a piece of the PV over us....one major difference I would contend here is that there is a huge NAO block there....which was not present in 2015. Yeah gotta hope we see some consistency with that look from the 6z GfS because that’s a damn nice looking block. Models are going to vary though a lot until they get a good hold in this next event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Just now, frd said: Does the block increase opportunities for clippers and East Coast cyclogenesis at lower latitudes versus 2015 ? Yeah that type of NAO block would be better for the Mid-Atlantic than a 2015 pattern without the block. That's pretty stout though and way out in la-la land on an OP run....so probably not happening like that. But there have been a -NAO signal on the ensembles the last day or so. So something to watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2020 Author Share Posted December 2, 2020 4 hours ago, It's Always Sunny said: Tough break for SNEers with this weekend's upcoming storm. Ridging out west is usually welcomed but in my personal opinion it's almost too much (amplified). It's to the point where it breaks anticyclonically and "pinches off" the mid level low currently over TX Panhandle, preventing it to dig further south which is what needs to happen at this point to get any sort of favorable track to get that cold air to fill in NW of the surface low. I was looking even beyond that and around Dec.13-14th timeframe another massive low develops but it's behind the remnants of a deteriorated Rex Block which slides east and gives ya'll a cutter. You'll need the umbrella more than the shovel. I'm not completely throwing in the towel on these two events for SNE yet but definitely concerned about the synoptic setup. I may end up with more snow than some of you up there Good to know that you aren't completely throwing in the towel on the day 13 event. Christ, am I relieved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2020 Author Share Posted December 2, 2020 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: 00z EPS was a nice overall mean if you smooth out the super amped runs with the wide right runs. Somehow I don't think it happens like a middle of the road thing... it either seems weak and right, or very wound up and left. I would take .7" and run, theoretically speaking, but I agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 12z Nam way different at hour 51... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah that type of NAO block would be better for the Mid-Atlantic than a 2015 pattern without the block. That's pretty stout though and way out in la-la land on an OP run....so probably not happening like that. But there have been a -NAO signal on the ensembles the last day or so. So something to watch. Thanks, with wave breaking and some comments from Paul Rodney I believe about an eventual block forming in the NAO domain certainly something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Stable-looking wave that puts a piece of the PV over us....one major difference I would contend here is that there is a huge NAO block there....which was not present in 2015. You forgot one other contention ... ... I had just set my first cup of coffee down and it was the first thing I happened to see lol ... but yeah, taken with a grain of salt/assault/sardonics... The stable deep heights is pretty amazing there - which is not a statement prediction .. it is what it is in the extended GFS overnight. As far as the NAO ...yeah, it's a west based -SD sure ...but I don't know/think that is really a suppression look there. The spacing is too broad... I'd almost contend that the actual nodal distance in the coupled SPV to ridge is fine, but the SPV is just too strong/deep. It would probably be difficult to engineer anything bigger than nickols when the mlv wind is too strong for S/W to differentiate - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supernovice Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Haven't we a seen a general trend- due to the infamous fast flow-for almost all of these to trend weaker sauce as we approach them? I get there will be super wound up systems that buck the trend but isn't that the way to hedge for now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: 6z maybe cheers you up? And why are you looking at op runs that far out? It's an improvement, no doubt. My last post was referring to the EPS but in terms of the OP, usually look at that 5+ days out for trends if anything and when it shows storms already cutting into Detroit, usually a good indicator that it will cut west at some sort of degree unless the EPS is showing completely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2020 Author Share Posted December 2, 2020 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah that type of NAO block would be better for the Mid-Atlantic than a 2015 pattern without the block. That's pretty stout though and way out in la-la land on an OP run....so probably not happening like that. But there have been a -NAO signal on the ensembles the last day or so. So something to watch. There is going to be an NAO this month....it was pretty convincing even in the analog data from the outlook, but I think you are correct to question the intensity. I agree that we don't want a huge block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 NAM is going to suck some in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 The 06z NAM run didn't even have the southern bowling ball, This run will nuke though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Yes sir. Track so far looks about a perfect a balance you can get for this storm. Colder confluence push, obviously the NAM though, but a nice trend towards euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: NAM is going to suck some in. It is going to thread the needle for interior SNE this run. Prob a huge CCB flashing things to S+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NAM is going to suck some in. Its not bad for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Wow lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 "Christina..." 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 That is a nuke for western MA and CT. Dam. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2020 Author Share Posted December 2, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That is a nuke for western MA and CT. Dam. Hope it trends east or west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Western areas of CT and MA even down to NYC looked to get smoked at the end of the run, ha ha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Western areas of CT and MA even down to NYC looked to get smoked at the end of the run, ha ha Areas just west of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: "Christina..." Hold me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Lock it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 That is a hell of a bomb. It has srfc wind vectors practically pointing into the low center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NAM is going to suck some in. Yeah saw that - lol... - It's interesting that this is still so variant < 5 days. I mean ... our expectations should be reasonable - okay... but I don't think 84 to 96 before go time in the era of PITA-FLops and quantum processing, satellite electromagnetic thermal residence detection/fluid momentum transfer sampling .. .that it is really too much to ask for the 06z G F'n S not dumping any event at all. Wow on that... while the ECM is rippin Cat 2 Nor'easter into Worcester... Frankly - the GGEM of all runs seems like a blended path of least regret but - just when we bite... there's always another option magically emerging to screw that up too - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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