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December 2020 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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11 minutes ago, FRWEATHA said:
Would love to see a repeat of this storm. Very impactful and memorable storm down here. Wind stayed N and NNW avoiding any changeover. 

https://www.nytimes.com/1981/12/07/us/unpredicted-storm-brings-new-england-up-to-2-feet-of-snow.html

My memory was that winter was good overall here and great for CNE and NNE. Had the early April blizzard too.
 

Sent from my iPhone

That is the one that gave my area 18" and ORH like 5".

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jesus... just when we're ready to pull the trigger on tossing accolades at the GFS ...it immediately puts out a cycle that looks like they detonated an a-bomb on the mother board of the Cray stack

Firstly, it's not going to success in evacuating that intense N/stream arced flow over Ontario  just in convenient time to take that stupid thing that far NW like that...  too much mass displacement - .. 

It's almost like they deliberate parameterized the GFS not to phase - ..it's progressive bias just kills it...

I saw the NAM and thought well...there's the Euro nod ...then the GFS seems to purposefully do odd whole-scale things to avoid it lol

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32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is the one that gave my area 18" and ORH like 5".

No, you’re thinking of 12/29/76.

12/5-6/81 gave ORH like 10-11”. E MA was the jackpot though for sure. Just not quite the obscene gradient as the ‘76 storm. 

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No, you’re thinking of 12/29/76.

12/5-6/81 gave ORH like 10-11”. E MA was the jackpot though for sure. Just not quite the obscene gradient as the ‘76 storm. 

What was the Enso state the 81-82 winter?? I know you have written about 75-76 as being similar to this year.

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Just now, PhineasC said:

Another terrible run. Amazing how quickly the models turn gold into garbage. 

This one on the 5th is more of a thread the needle with a marginal air mass in place, I would prefer the follow up wave on the 7/8th with a slightly better air mass if we had a choice.

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Just now, PhineasC said:

West enough to rain on all of us followed by out to sea sounds about right. Any chance 12/7 turns into a blizzard for Norfolk? That would just feel right. 

The most likely outcome as it stands, Lets get this to trend east some so at least the NW areas up here can salvage something.

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4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

West enough to rain on all of us followed by out to sea sounds about right. Any chance 12/7 turns into a blizzard for Norfolk? That would just feel right. 

At least you’re prob getting good upslope behind the 12/5 system. More favorable look than the trash this current system will give. 

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

I would be wary still of the euro being overamped at this range as it seems to be consistently the last 5 years.  It was insanely overamped with tomorrow's evolution of this very system over OK/TX 3 days ago and has since gone the other way.  

We will see if the others cave to it tonight. 

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