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December 2020 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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Just now, CoastalWx said:

For these parts, everything was garbage no mater the track really. We second week.

Yeah...CP in SNE has almost no shot...interior SNE has a faint shot if things line up perfectly....NNE has a real shot, but still there could be issues if the Euro solution happens.

I'm pretty skeptical of the Euro solution though.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

For these parts, everything was garbage no mater the track really. We second week.

Yea, I couldn't care less. This run just means we endure more erotic se wind bedtime stories from Kev, and more magic marker scribbling below an incoherent rambling about CAPE, from Wiz.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah...CP in SNE has almost no shot...interior SNE has a faint shot if things line up perfectly....NNE has a real shot, but still there could be issues if the Euro solution happens.

I'm pretty skeptical of the Euro solution though.

We're all hoping it's way too wrapped

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah...CP in SNE has almost no shot...interior SNE has a faint shot if things line up perfectly....NNE has a real shot, but still there could be issues if the Euro solution happens.

I'm pretty skeptical of the Euro solution though.

Yea, I'll take the under on phasing with respect to this run, but also the under on SNE snowfall , regardless.

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Just now, stormtracker said:

We're all hoping it's way too wrapped

It phased these two shortwaves....which no other run has been doing. Probably overly aggressive. Euro seems to like to dive the northern stream too much at times...Tip often talks about this bias, but it would be relevant here.

 

Dec1_ECMWFh5_72.png

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It's true Will but ... 72 hours ...hmm... 

That's getting kind of shallow - usually it's around the temporal seam of D4.5 into 6 where we see it correct toward less N-S curvature appeal and so forth... This seems to be either exacting its bias at an usually short window, or... it's onto something ? 

I don't know - I'm starting to get rattled by "the king" at this point - even if it is right about this solution ( say - ) ...the last 4 cycles seems like it's put out 3.5 different ideas :arrowhead:   ...at some point a liar is just a liar.  It's spraying solution and picking one - we already have guidance that does that with eclat - it's called the Crazy "Unkle" ...  I mean is it guidance or "miss"guidance -

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Merry Christmas the Sh$$ter was full. 

 

The new GEFS is starting to see a *potential* sudden stratospheric warming event within the next 10 days. As the North Pacific pattern starts to feature some blocking (-EPO) its going to doing some serious work on the #PolarVortex. This is something to watch closely. #natgas
 
 
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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's true Will but ... 72 hours ...hmm... 

That's getting kind of shallow - usually it's around the temporal seam of D4.5 into 6 where we see it correct toward less N-S curvature appeal and so forth... This is seems to be either exacting its bias at an usually short window, or... it's onto something ? 

I don't know - I'm starting to get rattled by "the king" at this point - even if it is right about this solution ( say - ) ...the last 4 cycles seems like it's put out 3.5 different runs :arrowhead:

Yup... the King has left the throne a while back... the king is dead...long live the king    

Fast flow killin us

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2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yup... the King has left the throne a while back... the king is dead...long live the king    

Fast flow killin us

Heh ...who knows if that's why but ...  whatever the cause, I used to hedge beyond D5 but once crossing inside that range ...it was dependably 70 or 80% Euro with some spicing modulated in from other guidance. 

Now?  I don't want to actually cook shit soup so I'm forced to change that m.o.

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