CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Pickles and The Pope. Sounds like a spotlight documentary from The Boston Globe. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 well... one thing that 300 era of this GFS' deep field, fuzzy optical horizon of the known Universe idea has going for it, it'll be deeper into the -AO ...assuming it really lasts that long. And, sets up conveyors over on our side of the hemisphere. It seems what's happening between this D3-6 ...versus the 5-9... then onward into the 9+ range is a gradual cooling of the hemisphere while the same storm frequency sort of is maintained? Seems/looks like a 3 or so day average periodicity between Colorado/Miller A hybrids ( that may B too ) while we slowly stack cold within reach over the lower Canadian Shield... I think that's sort of the consensus ... Ray's been all over that part of the month and given ( at least per - ) the GEFs mass-field/index behavior that seems like we have the best nexus of actually having cold air available to these "drought corrections" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2020 Author Share Posted December 1, 2020 I don't mean to impugn @jbenedet's efforts, either. He is a good met. Just trying humorously express my disagreement. It is def. possible for this to end up snow for interior SNE, but I'm not sure how one can portray that as the most likely outcome attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 7 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: I thought the WPC map looked very close and they had a high in a very good position. We hope. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2020 Author Share Posted December 1, 2020 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: well... one thing that 300 era of this GFS' deep field, fuzzy optical horizon of the known Universe idea has going for it, it'll be deeper into the -AO ...assuming it really lasts that long. And, sets up conveyors over on our side of the hemisphere. It seems what's happening between this D3-6 ...versus the 5-9... then onward into the 9+ range is a gradual cooling of the hemisphere while the same storm frequency sort of is maintained? Seems/looks like a 3 or so day average periodicity between Colorado/Miller A hybrids ( that may B too ) while we slowly stack cold within reach over the lower Canadian Shield... I think that's sort of the consensus ... Ray's been all over that part of the month and given ( at least per - ) the GEFs mass-field/index behavior that seems like we have the best nexus of actually having cold air available to these "drought corrections" Yea, no issue with this assessment. I expect rapid fire significant threats on ole' man winter's assembly line 2 weeks from now. Buts its going to be a process, and just don't think we are there yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Putting gas in the Celica now just in case 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2020 Author Share Posted December 1, 2020 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Putting gas in the Celica now just in case Ha, I had a celica for 9 years...just got rid of it a year ago. Loved it, but not suitable for fam life....AKA, wife held me at gunpoint to part ways with it when the first little rager was born. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Ha, I had a celica for 9 years...just got rid of it a year ago. Loved it, but not suitable for fam life....AKA, wife held me at gunpoint to part ways with it when the first little rager was born. 1995 Caravan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 12z Ukie is a Randolph Roof Collapser. Not quite enough for interior SNE. 2nd best model! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2020 Author Share Posted December 1, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: 1995 Caravan? No, 2012 Lexus caravan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 I also wonder about the EPO domain... Does anyone care to post or perhaps comment on the EPS' index/outlook ?? I don't care to spend money on WeatherBELL or whatever because I hate monety and economics and want Humanity to fail because of that greed-based social construct - but I digress... Kidding, but the American's stopped doing GEF- based index calculations for the WPO ..NP/EPO arc of the Pacific because of lack of funding... I'm curious because the AO falls to ~ - 2SD then appears over at CPC to then modulate to -1/-.5 before possibly falling to -2 again ending week 2... Meanwhile, the PNA appears to fall off it's perch and tries to neutralize if not go neggie out there... Typically when the AO is negative and the PNA is negative, the EPO shows blocking tendencies with a Pac jet undercutting... I don't know if the EPO is reflecting a blocking chance.. The operational GFS doesn't really appear very interested in loading height anomalies over the Alaskan sector so... The EPO can also emerge rather abruptly ...not as often/stochastic as the NAO,...no, but anyway... -AO sustaining while the PNA slumps could be an indication that the EPO may block a bit mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: I also wonder about the EPO domain... Does anyone care to post or perhaps comment on the EPS' index/outlook ?? I don't care to spend money on WeatherBELL or whatever because I hate monety and economics and want Humanity to fail because of that greed-based social construct - but I digress... Kidding, but the American's stopped doing GEF- based index calculations for the WPO ..NP/EPO arc of the Pacific because of lack of funding... I'm curious because the AO falls to ~ - 2SD then appears over at CPC to then modulate to -1/-.5 before possibly falling to -2 again ending week 2... Meanwhile, the PNA appears to fall off it's perch and tries to neutralize if not go neggie out there... Typically when the AO is negative and the PNA is negative, the EPO showing blocking tendencies with a Pac jet undercutting... I don't know if the EPO is reflecting a blocking chance.. The operational GFS doesn't really appear very interested in loading height anomalies over the Alaskan sector so... The EPO can also emerge rather abruptly ...not as often/stochastic as the NAO,...no, but anyway... -AO sustaining while the PNA slumps could be an indication that the EPO may block a bit mid month. Don't have EPO stuff, you want a snap shot at hr 360 or a graph of the tellies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Euro op is going to inject more srn stream energy. Shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Lol, the Euro is going to phase the southern stream with the *first* northern stream shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Looks like wherever it tracks, will be a biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2020 Author Share Posted December 1, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Lol, the Euro is going to phase the southern stream with the *first* northern stream shortwave. Congrats, Syracuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 3.5 days out, and it's made changes like it's the JMA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Rains to Randolph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 HV special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 The little nuke that shouldn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Don't have EPO stuff, you want a snap shot at hr 360 or a graph of the tellies? welp ... can't hurt thanks... I mean something is better than nuttin' I just don't understand why there isn't more sense of urgency or just interest in getting f'ing funding to those indices, as the weather tends to move from the west ... toward the east last I checked, and the Pacific indices are in fact an implciation that moves ... west to f'ing east! It's really bafflingly asinine ...even for a Governmental operation that is beyond the pail incompetent boobery to maintain the NAO and dump the EPO calculations - someone needs to get fired bad... Hopefully this new administration in-coming ...with it's apparent at least modicum of respect for science and intelligence will send 'em a couple bucks to so they can turn on the servers - I mean...it's not even like there's a team of grad students, red-eyed and starving in a Dickensian workhouse calculating those f'n indexes every night - it's all automated... So what in the f* is the CDC saying when they lost funding ? Pushing a button ?? stop a third-world country why don't ya! - heh that sounds like a conversation stopper that attempts to offer not room for probing into other reasons - I don't know I'm babbling/... anyway, sure - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Congrats, Syracuse. Not far off....prob like SLK this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 BGM blaster. At least the meth labs in the srn tier are snow covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Rains to Randolph. Stupid Euro. It always shits in the punch bowl. Every damn time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: welp ... can't hurt thanks... I mean something is better than nuttin' I just don't understand why there isn't more sense of urgency or just interest in 'getting f'ing funding' as the weather tends to move from the west ... toward the east last I checked, and the Pacific indices are in fact, west and move east given time ... It's really bafflingly asinine ...even for a Governmental operation that is beyond the pale incompetent boobery to maintain the NAO and dump the EPO calculations - someone needs to get fired bad... Hopefully this new administration in-coming ...with it's apparent at least modicum of respect for science and intelligence will send 'em a couple bucks to so they can turn on the servers - I mean...it's not even like there's a team of grad students, red-eyed and starving in a Dickensian workhouse calculating those f'n indexes every night - it's all automated... So what in the f* is the CDC saying when they lost funding ? Pushing a button ?? stop a third-world country why don't ya! - heh that sounds like a conversation stopper that attempts to offer not room for probing into other reasons - I don't know I'm babbling/... anyway, sure - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah RE: the bolded.....we need to infuse northern stream into this in order to crash the thicknesses enough to make this matter for snow. So it's definitely a "thread-the-needle" system. Leaving the southern stream behind in the southwest and focusing on the 2nd northern stream shortwave for 12/7-8 turned out to be more useful like yesterday's 12z Euro....but it seems we're trending away from that now as the southern stream is ejecting and we're back to the 12/5 system which is tougher and probably causes too much interference for 12/7-8 should that shortwave even try to dig enough. So we're left with trying to phase the first northern stream shortwave with the southern stream for 12/5....all while not "accidentally" tracking this too far west at the same time. Euro went with the bolded part. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 PF won't like this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2020 Author Share Posted December 1, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Not far off....prob like SLK this run. Wolfie can title the thread "Pope's Read-Headed Step-Rainer". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Euro looks kinda big here...still scared I whiff or rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: Stupid Euro. It always shits in the punch bowl. Every damn time. Throw another 1-3" of rain there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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