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December 2020 Discussion


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well... one thing that 300 era of this GFS' deep field, fuzzy optical horizon of the known Universe idea has going for it, it'll be deeper into the -AO  ...assuming it really lasts that long.  And, sets up conveyors over on our side of the hemisphere.  

It seems what's happening between this D3-6 ...versus the 5-9... then onward into the 9+ range is a gradual cooling of the hemisphere while the same storm frequency sort of is maintained? 

Seems/looks like a 3 or so day average periodicity between Colorado/Miller A hybrids ( that may B too ) while we slowly stack cold within reach over the lower Canadian Shield... 

I think that's sort of the consensus ... Ray's been all over that part of the month and given ( at least per - ) the GEFs mass-field/index behavior that seems like we have the best nexus of actually having cold air available to these "drought corrections" 

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9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

well... one thing that 300 era of this GFS' deep field, fuzzy optical horizon of the known Universe idea has going for it, it'll be deeper into the -AO  ...assuming it really lasts that long.  And, sets up conveyors over on our side of the hemisphere.  

It seems what's happening between this D3-6 ...versus the 5-9... then onward into the 9+ range is a gradual cooling of the hemisphere while the same storm frequency sort of is maintained? 

Seems/looks like a 3 or so day average periodicity between Colorado/Miller A hybrids ( that may B too ) while we slowly stack cold within reach over the lower Canadian Shield... 

I think that's sort of the consensus ... Ray's been all over that part of the month and given ( at least per - ) the GEFs mass-field/index behavior that seems like we have the best nexus of actually having cold air available to these "drought corrections" 

Yea, no issue with this assessment. I expect rapid fire significant threats on ole' man winter's assembly line 2 weeks from now. Buts its going to be a process, and just don't think we are there yet.

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I also wonder about the EPO domain... 

Does anyone care to post or perhaps comment on the EPS' index/outlook ??    I don't care to spend money on WeatherBELL or whatever because I hate monety and economics and want Humanity to fail because of that greed-based social construct - but I digress...   

Kidding, but the American's stopped doing GEF- based index calculations for the WPO ..NP/EPO arc of the Pacific because of lack of funding... I'm curious because the AO falls to ~ - 2SD then appears over at CPC to then modulate to -1/-.5 before possibly falling to -2 again ending week 2...  Meanwhile, the PNA appears to fall off it's perch and tries to neutralize if not go neggie out there... Typically when the AO is negative and the PNA is negative, the EPO shows blocking tendencies with a Pac jet undercutting...   

I don't know if the EPO is reflecting a blocking chance.. The operational GFS doesn't really appear very interested in loading height anomalies over the Alaskan sector so...  The EPO can also emerge rather abruptly ...not as often/stochastic as the NAO,...no, but anyway...  -AO sustaining while the PNA slumps could be an indication that the EPO may block a bit mid month.

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I also wonder about the EPO domain... 

Does anyone care to post or perhaps comment on the EPS' index/outlook ??    I don't care to spend money on WeatherBELL or whatever because I hate monety and economics and want Humanity to fail because of that greed-based social construct - but I digress...   

Kidding, but the American's stopped doing GEF- based index calculations for the WPO ..NP/EPO arc of the Pacific because of lack of funding... I'm curious because the AO falls to ~ - 2SD then appears over at CPC to then modulate to -1/-.5 before possibly falling to -2 again ending week 2...  Meanwhile, the PNA appears to fall off it's perch and tries to neutralize if not go neggie out there... Typically when the AO is negative and the PNA is negative, the EPO showing blocking tendencies with a Pac jet undercutting...   

I don't know if the EPO is reflecting a blocking chance.. The operational GFS doesn't really appear very interested in loading height anomalies over the Alaskan sector so...  The EPO can also emerge rather abruptly ...not as often/stochastic as the NAO,...no, but anyway...  -AO sustaining while the PNA slumps could be an indication that the EPO may block a bit mid month.

Don't have EPO stuff, you want a snap shot at hr 360 or a graph of the tellies?

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Don't have EPO stuff, you want a snap shot at hr 360 or a graph of the tellies?

welp ... can't hurt  :)  thanks...  I mean something is better than nuttin' 

I just don't understand why there isn't more sense of urgency or just interest in getting f'ing funding to those indices, as the weather tends to move from the west ... toward the east last I checked, and the Pacific indices are in fact an implciation that moves ... west to f'ing east!  

It's really bafflingly asinine ...even for a Governmental operation that is beyond the pail incompetent boobery to maintain the NAO and dump the EPO calculations - 

someone needs to get fired bad... Hopefully this new administration in-coming ...with it's apparent at least modicum of respect for science and intelligence will send 'em a couple bucks to so they can turn on the servers - I mean...it's not even like there's a team of grad students, red-eyed and starving in a Dickensian workhouse calculating those f'n indexes every night - it's all automated... So what in the f* is the CDC saying when they lost funding ?   Pushing a button ??  stop a third-world country why don't ya!   - heh that sounds like a conversation stopper that attempts to offer not room for probing into other reasons - I don't know I'm babbling/...  

anyway, sure -

 

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

welp ... can't hurt  :)  thanks...  I mean something is better than nuttin' 

I just don't understand why there isn't more sense of urgency or just interest in 'getting f'ing funding' as the weather tends to move from the west ... toward the east last I checked, and the Pacific indices are in fact, west and move east given time ...  It's really bafflingly asinine ...even for a Governmental operation that is beyond the pale incompetent boobery to maintain the NAO and dump the EPO calculations - 

someone needs to get fired bad... Hopefully this new administration in-coming ...with it's apparent at least modicum of respect for science and intelligence will send 'em a couple bucks to so they can turn on the servers - I mean...it's not even like there's a team of grad students, red-eyed and starving in a Dickensian workhouse calculating those f'n indexes every night - it's all automated... So what in the f* is the CDC saying when they lost funding ?   Pushing a button ??  stop a third-world country why don't ya!   - heh that sounds like a conversation stopper that attempts to offer not room for probing into other reasons - I don't know I'm babbling/...  

anyway, sure -

 

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah RE: the bolded.....we need to infuse northern stream into this in order to crash the thicknesses enough to make this matter for snow. So it's definitely a "thread-the-needle" system.

Leaving the southern stream behind in the southwest and focusing on the 2nd northern stream shortwave for 12/7-8 turned out to be more useful like yesterday's 12z Euro....but it seems we're trending away from that now as the southern stream is ejecting and we're back to the 12/5 system which is tougher and probably causes too much interference for 12/7-8 should that shortwave even try to dig enough.

So we're left with trying to phase the first northern stream shortwave with the southern stream for 12/5....all while not "accidentally" tracking this too far west at the same time.

Euro went with the bolded part.

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