CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Euro will probably fold with its bias of burying energy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I was just going to say that....known bias. Exactly, It seems to delay these the southern stream S/W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Euro will probably fold with its bias of burying energy. Its not your grandads euro anymore ha ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Just that fact its not going up the UP of MI gives us something to talk about though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: Its not your grandads euro anymore ha ha. Maybe the nerds with regression analysis on their spread sheets say it doesn't have that bias, but I still see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Finally one to track 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2020 Author Share Posted December 1, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Finally one to track Winter Kev is back as of 12/1....Kevins in seasons. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Just that fact its not going up the UP of MI gives us something to talk about though. Yes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe the nerds with regression analysis on their spread sheets say it doesn't have that bias, but I still see it. Probably the same nerds who say the UKMET is the “second best model.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2020 Author Share Posted December 1, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: Probably the same nerds who say the UKMET is the “second best model.” It was actually the best with regard to the tropics this past season. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Finally one to track If it doesn’t revert back to the 7th-8th deal...we’ll only be tracking rain for SNE on pretty much what the GFS and Canadian showed for the 5th-6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Yes! This would make quite the mess to clean up but well worth it, I need to get on the board with something other then a couple traces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 54 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’ve been around on the boards longer than you’ve been alive son. Cmon man... I'm 49 in 2 days. Your kind.of acting like a child if you are old as you say you are. Smarten up, mature up, and be an example to the younger crew on here ( simce you are older tham most you should have some wisdom ). 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: It was actually the best with regard to the tropics this past season. In the far upper reaches of the atmosphere it is top-notch for sure. I could see the Ukie doing well with wound-up lows. Sort of like when you needed a model showing a coastal coming north you would break out the NOGAPS and CRAS. The Ukie loves taking monster lows off the coast and slamming them into Portugal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 You can see the GGEM has a little bit of a better synoptic setup than the GFS up in Quebec....little high trying to feed down and entrained just enough cold air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Looks like a soaker this weekend.... which is going to muck up any chance at something early next week. Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 I am banking on hour 330 of this morning's GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Winter Kev is back as of 12/1....Kevins in seasons. Yup. Only 3 short months. And we’re already wasting some of month 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 300 gfs !!!!!!!! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2020 Author Share Posted December 1, 2020 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: In the far upper reaches of the atmosphere it is top-notch for sure. I could see the Ukie doing well with wound-up lows. Sort of like when you needed a model showing a coastal coming north you would break out the NOGAPS and CRAS. The Ukie loves taking monster lows off the coast and slamming them into Portugal. I totally get what you mean...it seems to arrive at its good verification score via mean of crazy uncle extremes more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 12z GFS coming around to “reasonable” but still looks too progressive over eastern CONUS. Doesn’t reflect a -NAO/-AO (unless of course there is a false signal, which I see as unlikely at this point). Slower, deeper, and further south is how I expect this to correct in future runs (with subtlety of course)... I still think this evolves more to a Miller B look, with very dynamic cyclogenesis close to the BM. Either way, very excited to finally have a big storm potential to watch with serious interest. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 55 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Nah, I got close in VT. I'll still never forgive Zwyts....I implored him to chase Nemo....he didn't think it was gonna happen. That’s the one I remember, that would’ve been the one to chase! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 If this evolves to a moderate snow threat , the thread needs to have the “pope” in the title . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, jbenedet said: 12z GFS coming around to “reasonable” but still looks too progressive over eastern CONUS. Doesn’t reflect a -NAO/-AO (unless of course there is a false signal, which I see as unlikely at this point). Slower, deeper, and further south is how I expect this to correct in future runs (with subtlety of course)... I still think this evolves more to a Miller B look, with very dynamic cyclogenesis close to the BM. Either way, very excited to finally have a big storm potential to watch with serious interest. We preach .. we Pope. She’s coming 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: If this evolves to a moderate snow threat , the thread needs to have the “pope” in the title . Absolutely. He was mentioning the possibility days ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 12z Ukie is a Randolph Roof Collapser. Not quite enough for interior SNE. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 19 minutes ago, jbenedet said: 12z GFS coming around to “reasonable” but still looks too progressive over eastern CONUS. Doesn’t reflect a -NAO/-AO (unless of course there is a false signal, which I see as unlikely at this point). Slower, deeper, and further south is how I expect this to correct in future runs (with subtlety of course)... I still think this evolves more to a Miller B look, with very dynamic cyclogenesis close to the BM. Either way, very excited to finally have a big storm potential to watch with serious interest. In the 1990s through about 2004 or '05 ... one could count on the over-under flopping negative enough in these marginal late mid range modeled setups, where the thermal layout looked like +2 with those 0C hole punches on colorful charts? - lol... Nowadays, as I opined half tongue in cheek a few days ago ...it seems more and more the flop direction tends to positive by crucial decimals and we miss out. I also get what you mean by the -AO .... that plus the +PNA really should "slow things down" a little, but I also think those indices battle with the speedy hemisphere thing that kicked in about 10 year ago and has gone on to set commercial airline ground speed records routinely every winter since... I think one flight, LGA to Hethro ...I think it was 3 hr and 51 minutes but don't quote me... maybe it 5 and change...but, but the plane was said to be doing sound speed relative to surface due to 200 kts sustain laminar flow and they had to open the throttle to maintain lift... wow. Anyway, I also wonder if the 'west' vs 'east' NAO orientation modulates things - in fact we know it does...how much or how little ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2020 Author Share Posted December 1, 2020 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Absolutely. He was mentioning the possibility days ago. If it rains, can we title the thread "Scooter, ORH, 40/70, Dryslot, Et al? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 12z Ukie is a Randolph Roof Collapser. Not quite enough for interior SNE. Even closer here, Maybe the HP is underplayed here over QUE? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Even closer here, Maybe the HP is underplayed here over QUE? I thought the WPC map looked very close and they had a high in a very good position. We hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now