40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2020 Author Share Posted November 30, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Just toughens you up. You should ship baby Bryce up to Blue Hill to protect the lad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 26 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Exactly. The cmc had this idea last night which is what the euro shows now. Models are having an extremely extremely tough time on how much energy gets left behind on the southern stream and how far south the northern branch drops. I swear each run every model is changing drastically Yup ... and, like we said last night ... probably have to go on and off with these peregrinations for a couple days, too - I mean don't be shocked if say ...12z tomorrow we're back to that separate weirdness again... The 00z, 06z. and 12z operational GFS runs all have definitively different ideas on how to handle the flow coming off the NE Pac over the PNA evolving arced flow up over the NW Terr. of Canada and really...everything that happens on the 7/8th of Dec is going to come down to that being handled right and uh...heh, we aren't really there yet. Some of that mechanics is plausibly even based upon enhancements as the sourcing is deep oceanic basin regional... That's another thing about this PNA ..the flow is rather flat for numbers as large as CPC ( GEFs -based)... It may be adding to model discontinuity - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You should ship baby Bryce up to Blue Hill to protect the lad Axe going through bathroom door and wife crying like The Shining. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Slow up on solace ... not solis. I'll take a quantum of solis please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Euro doing cmc like things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: That would be darn wintry verbatim if that occurred. Talking near mid month. Looks like a bit of a reshuffle in between the 10th-12th. Something models have pick up on as the ridge retrogrades off the west coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Just toughens you up. Foot of cement in TAN.... wet flakes on the windshield in Plymouth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: No split, just a little jab. Yeah. Usually means a shot of artic air is coming into states. We don’t need a split to sustained winter. 13/14 was filled with jabs to the Pv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Foot of cement in TAN.... wet flakes on the windshield in Plymouth? You'd be in the catpaw zone when up rt 140 the porches are collapsing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2020 Author Share Posted November 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yeah. Usually means a shot of artic air is coming into states. We don’t need a split to sustained winter. 13/14 was filled with jabs to the Pv The safest route is little jabs TBH....the stakes are higher with a split/wholesale displacement. It needs to evolve correctly or one region can get screwed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 EPS looking like the GEFS. Nice ridge axis kissing the coast of western NAMR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Looks like a good run. I am a bit fringed but it has time to expand and look better here too. Models are all over the place during that period so no sense in getting married to any one solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: EPS looking like the GEFS. Nice ridge axis kissing the coast of western NAMR. A good modeling day. We’ll probably be home by Sunday before heading back here at some point fairly soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Nice eye candy for mby on the 12z Euro. Most likely as good as it will get and it will be all downhill from here, lol. Not getting invested in this, as I remember ly when we had all those 7-8 day potentials only to see them disappear by day 4. A winter to forget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The safest route is little jabs TBH....the stakes are higher with a split/wholesale displacement. It needs to evolve correctly or one region can get screwed. Absolutely. 13/14 was filled with jabs on a weak Pv we never had a SSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 I didn't like the look Euro run ' as is ' but ... may still be molding the clay on that Dec 6 thru 10 period of time ... If I had to anthropomorphize the Euro model,... you got a panel member that's sort of holding back while sending in a placeholder ...biding time while it continues to analyze how/why to either go full in, or pull full out - it sees the possibility but isn't convinced ... I don't like the D5 to D6 transition there ...that appears like the model's doing the over curved deepening it biases at that temporal boundary ... I mean a little - there are worse examples of it doing that than this run... but it does seem to get a total structure there from less input on the previous day(5) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Axe going through bathroom door and wife crying like The Shining. Melt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 The storm on the 5th, Now is the 7-8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS looking like the GEFS. Nice ridge axis kissing the coast of western NAMR. Really nice dprog/dT again on the heights in the Yukon/AK region. Looks like the 12z GEFS was real...at leats real enough for other guidance to see it. We'll see if it actually continues on future runs. Good trend today though at 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 You know what's nice? Seeing fantasy storms showing up in the models. Last year was so bad I didn't even have those straws to grasp at. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: The storm on the 5th, Now is the 7-8th. It's really a different shortwave that produces the 12/7-8 storm than produces 12/5 (or formerly produced it if we're talking Euro/GFS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 11 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Absolutely. 13/14 was filled with jabs on a weak Pv we never had a SSW. One could almost argue there was in the spring though ...mid to late March in 2014 ... which, yeah, for the purposes of present context doesn't help the winter of 2013-2014, huh ? lol just sayn' 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: It's really a different shortwave that produces the 12/7-8 storm that produces 12/5 (or formerly produced it if we're talking Euro/GFS) Yes, The 5th kind of is just a weak wave that moves offshore, I was more referring to a system of impact has changed from the 5th to the 7/8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Hoth said: You know what's nice? Seeing fantasy storms showing up in the models. Last year was so bad I didn't even have those straws to grasp at. ha, the flip side of that coin says, ' Last year was so good in model performance, they were never fooled by the bad pattern' 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: One could almost argue there was in the spring though ...mid to late March in 2014 ... which, yeah, for the purposes of present context doesn't help the winter of 2013-2014, huh ? lol just sayn' I remember March 14 was real cold/dry. We had MJO phases 5/6 (cold in March) and a lobe of the Pv sat over Maine. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: ha, the flip side of that coin says, ' Last year was so good in model performance, they were never fooled by the bad pattern' lol, you make a valid point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Pretty hard to dunk on this look right now on the EPS. This is the evolution after the 12/7-8 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I didn't like the look Euro run ' as is ' but ... may still be molding the clay on that Dec 6 thru 10 period of time ... If I had to anthropomorphize the Euro model,... you got a panel member that's sort of holding back while sending in a placeholder ...biding time while it continues to analyze how/why to either go full in, or pull full out - it sees the possibility but isn't convinced ... I don't like the D5 to D6 transition there ...that appears like the model's doing the over curved deepening it biases at that temporal boundary ... I mean a little - there are worse examples of it doing that than this run... but it does seem to get a total structure there from less input on the previous day(5) I like this description. In my years of looking at the wx models I’ve always been torn on whether each model run should be viewed as a separate entity or if trends actually exist, and like you just said I’ve always this feeling sometimes they’re almost trying balance things even though I couldn’t put my finger on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Hard not to like that EPS look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2020 Author Share Posted November 30, 2020 31 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I didn't like the look Euro run ' as is ' but ... may still be molding the clay on that Dec 6 thru 10 period of time ... If I had to anthropomorphize the Euro model,... you got a panel member that's sort of holding back while sending in a placeholder ...biding time while it continues to analyze how/why to either go full in, or pull full out - it sees the possibility but isn't convinced ... I don't like the D5 to D6 transition there ...that appears like the model's doing the over curved deepening it biases at that temporal boundary ... I mean a little - there are worse examples of it doing that than this run... but it does seem to get a total structure there from less input on the previous day(5) That is the case quite often with the inverted troughs...usually in attempt to reconcile past robust solutions with the realization that the system would either miss, or not materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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