December 2020 Discussion

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

agreed...I think winter forecasting is pretty much voodoo at this point (could be due to the changing background climate making analogs almost useless, probably why Bastardi is wrong 99.9% of the time these days). I see countless forecasts every year that end up wrong or revised over and over again to make them look "better" and when they do end up getting them close to being right, it is usually for the wrong reasons. We get snow in October and April/May (Tip did call the October snow well in advance, kudos). Nino's and Nina's don't even act like the normal events of the past...I love the tracking aspect of weather, regardless of rain or snow...

I agree. That is why I don't touch the original product once it is issued. Any updates or revisions are made independent of the graded product. 

[Chrisrotary12]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hopefully we can grab a bootleg NAO to salavage medicority, and name it Can Newton.

After 20 years of great to amazing quarterback play, watching Newton play QB hurts my brain. He's so bad. It's like having 15 KUs in 20 years and then ratters for a decade. (I know KUs don't make a season, but they certainly help).

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Has anybody ever seen the extended GEFS out to 35 days? LOL...I don't think the met community cares one bit for that. What a shame, all that money wasted on that project...can think of many other areas where it could have been spent more wisely. 

They are a joke at day 7...lets extend it another 4 weeks lol.

[CoastalWx]

I don't see why there has been so much doom and gloom last few days. Other than the typical weenie banter, can someone point me to a big red flag? What is pointing to a ratter? What's wrong with near avg snow in December? I don't see an obvious feature showing me that we are in for a crap month.  Trust me, I always tend to look for problems down the road...but nothing really stands out. I do think we may need patience into mid month (that does not mean we can't sneak something), but I don't see anything that makes me want to throw my laptop into the Atlantic. 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

This is encouraging to see. Certainly good to have to prevent a pig anyways. The 50mb vortex getting some jabs.

 

 

 

The vortex is positioned nicely to get cold down here, unlike last year. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don't see why there has been so much doom and gloom last few days. Other than the typical weenie banter, can someone point me to a big red flag? What is pointing to a ratter? What's wrong with near avg snow in December? I don't see an obvious feature showing me that we are in for a crap month.  Trust me, I always tend to look for problems down the road...but nothing really stands out. I do think we may need patience into mid month (that does not mean we can't sneak something), but I don't see anything that makes me want to throw my laptop into the Atlantic. 

Agreed.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I don't see why there has been so much doom and gloom last few days. Other than the typical weenie banter, can someone point me to a big red flag? What is pointing to a ratter? What's wrong with near avg snow in December? I don't see an obvious feature showing me that we are in for a crap month.  Trust me, I always tend to look for problems down the road...but nothing really stands out. I do think we may need patience into mid month (that does not mean we can't sneak something), but I don't see anything that makes me want to throw my laptop into the Atlantic. 

There's been some awful takes in here. I don't see a reversion to the AK pig pattern at all. It doesn't mean we are going to definitely get snow, but we have a legit chance for events unlike when a pig pattern where the chances are remote.

There's a lot of either deliberate trolling or just ignorance gong on here.....maybe we should break it down:

Late November/first few days of Dec: AK pig pattern/torch....little chance for snow outside of upslope areas

Dec 5 - Dec 15ish: +PNA/El Nino flavor pattern....legit chance for snow, especially from about 12/7 onward. Still a bit mild early on but getting colder as Canada starts to reload...esp by the 10th.

Post-Dec 15th: Transition to more typical December La Nina? Could start rebuilding the Aleutian ridge. It looks pretty poleward though on early extended guidance. No sign of AK pig. More likely to see overrunning/SW flow events in this pattern vs coastals. But quick hitting coastals/redevelopers do still happen (see 12/25/17) This is obviously pretty far out, so it could change...maybe the El Nino look hangs on a bit longer than guidance shows (ala Dec 1975). We just don't know until we get closer.

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's been some awful takes in here. I don't see a reversion to the AK pig pattern at all. It doesn't mean we are going to definitely get snow, but we have a legit chance for events unlike when a pig pattern where the chances are remote.

There's a lot of either deliberate trolling or just ignorance gong on here.....maybe we should break it down:

Late November/first few days of Dec: AK pig pattern/torch....little chance for snow outside of upslope areas

Dec 5 - Dec 15ish: +PNA/El Nino flavor pattern....legit chance for snow, especially from about 12/7 onward. Still a bit mild early on but getting colder as Canada starts to reload...esp by the 10th.

Post-Dec 15th: Transition to more typical December La Nina? Could start rebuilding the Aleutian ridge. It looks pretty poleward though on early extended guidance. No sign of AK pig. More likely to see overrunning/SW flow events in this pattern vs coastals. But quick hitting coastals/redevelopers do still happen (see 12/25/17) This is obviously pretty far out, so it could change...maybe the El Nino look hangs on a bit longer than guidance shows (ala Dec 1975). We just don't know until we get closer.

Yeah, eps was more of a -epo pattern with overrunning/quick hitting stuff. The GEFS have the -epo along with -+pna which would provide a higher ceiling. 
 

Hopefully we get a compromise between the two. 

[WinterWolf]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don't see why there has been so much doom and gloom last few days. Other than the typical weenie banter, can someone point me to a big red flag? What is pointing to a ratter? What's wrong with near avg snow in December? I don't see an obvious feature showing me that we are in for a crap month.  Trust me, I always tend to look for problems down the road...but nothing really stands out. I do think we may need patience into mid month (that does not mean we can't sneak something), but I don't see anything that makes me want to throw my laptop into the Atlantic. 

Thank you for this. Great post! 

[Damage In Tolland]

I don’t think that’s fair to insinuate deliberate trolling and/ or ignorance because some folks are concerned about a very brief winter interlude , before return to awful. Especially when they’ve given sound met reasoning. If they’re trolling to troll , that’s one thing. But I’ve posted why I have concerns about a deep winter month after the 8th. And like we’ve said, we hope we are wrong .

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The vortex is positioned nicely to get cold down here, unlike last year. 

Tough to envision anything other than at least a decent gradient pattern within about a week of that frame.

[Snowcrazed71]

Thats why it is smart to focus on the here and now. Forecasting out beyond 2 weeks is somewhat futile. Too much of that on here..... Brings out all the cliff jumpers ( and it doesn't help with the antagonizers as well ). Sometimes the forum is a Shit show ( and I don't mean everyone, only a certain few )  lets track away and just ignore the naysayers. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's been some awful takes in here. I don't see a reversion to the AK pig pattern at all. It doesn't mean we are going to definitely get snow, but we have a legit chance for events unlike when a pig pattern where the chances are remote.

There's a lot of either deliberate trolling or just ignorance gong on here.....maybe we should break it down:

Late November/first few days of Dec: AK pig pattern/torch....little chance for snow outside of upslope areas

Dec 5 - Dec 15ish: +PNA/El Nino flavor pattern....legit chance for snow, especially from about 12/7 onward. Still a bit mild early on but getting colder as Canada starts to reload...esp by the 10th.

Post-Dec 15th: Transition to more typical December La Nina? Could start rebuilding the Aleutian ridge. It looks pretty poleward though on early extended guidance. No sign of AK pig. More likely to see overrunning/SW flow events in this pattern vs coastals. But quick hitting coastals/redevelopers do still happen (see 12/25/17) This is obviously pretty far out, so it could change...maybe the El Nino look hangs on a bit longer than guidance shows (ala Dec 1975). We just don't know until we get closer.

Yea, all I meant by more la nina. Obviously more prone to a Grincher than before that sets in, but I do not see Dec 2011 la nina....I am talking Dec 2007/2008 la nina.

[CoastalWx]

12z GFS is a beast just offshore on the weekend. 

[Allsnow]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Tough to envision anything other than at least a decent gradient pattern within about a week of that frame.

We are definitely going to get more of a Niña pattern for the second half of the month. With the eps look, I definitely could see that typical Niña snow gradient. We will have cold around with chances. I just hope we can keep the southeast ridge at bay, selfishly for my location. I would much rather be in Sne then nj for this lol. 

[mahk_webstah]

This sounds like a good stretch coming.  We  are perhaps gunshy given the last couple of winter forecasting  challenges, and the frequently bad outcomes for us.  But this kind of pattern seems like one that has enough cold air, a decent  amount of activity, so likely things will show up, then back off  and then come back strong.  Also maybe we get one  of those little surprises from a wave the slides quicly across  underneath us and gives us 2-4 instead of  some  flurries.  Or maybe we start to see models trend a bit colder, snowier as we get closer in this sort of set up.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t think that’s fair to insinuate deliberate trolling and/ or ignorance because some folks are concerned about a very brief winter interlude , before return to awful. Especially when they’ve given sound met reasoning. If they’re trolling to troll , that’s one thing. But I’ve posted why I have concerns about a deep winter month after the 8th. And like we’ve said, we hope we are wrong .

This is a very reasonable post. I would just say that there are no signs of a return of the pig this month, so maybe tone done the use of the word "awful"...at least through New Years..

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

12z GFS is a beast just offshore on the weekend. 

 

[Amped]

CMC looks nothing like the gfs at 120.  It just has one big bowling ball over the MS valley.  Has no intention of splitting it like the GFS

[weathafella]

Gradient patterns are my all time favorite.  If you’re on the good side it’s paradise.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Gradient patterns are my all time favorite.  If you’re on the good side it’s paradise.

Leon!  

[CoastalWx]

13-14 had some moments too. It also had pack assassination. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

13-14 had some moments too. It also had pack assassination. 

13-14 and 93-94 are two of the most overrated winters for me, personally. Largest event between them was like 8-9".

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, Amped said:

CMC looks nothing like the gfs at 120.  It just has one big bowling ball over the MS valley.  Has no intention of splitting it like the GFS

CMC just had an interior blizzard at 00z. All over the place.

[Torch Tiger]

I'll take last winters gradient pattern, that was ideal.

[Amped]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

CMC just had an interior blizzard at 00z. All over the place.

I'll take it over the wonky GFS 3 piece vortex split that's trending west every run.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Amped said:

I'll take it over the wonky GFS 3 piece vortex split that's trending west every run.

I meant guidance in general. I haven't been following this closely because its unlikely to result in snow for Methuen, MA.

[tiger_deF]

7 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

I'll take last winters gradient pattern, that was ideal.

When barely any precipitation falls the entire winter on a good chunk of NE, gradients mean jack 

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I meant guidance in general. I haven't been following this closely because its unlikely to result in snow for Methuen, MA.

Guidance is all over. GEFS looks like the have two camps. Timing differences with the s/w's.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t think that’s fair to insinuate deliberate trolling and/ or ignorance because some folks are concerned about a very brief winter interlude , before return to awful. Especially when they’ve given sound met reasoning. If they’re trolling to troll , that’s one thing. But I’ve posted why I have concerns about a deep winter month after the 8th. And like we’ve said, we hope we are wrong .

Agree.