40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2020 Author Share Posted November 30, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: I was just having fun. It may get a little more gradient, but we'll have money in the bank then. There is no pig. Yea, that is my feeling.....we transition from Dec 2009 to Dec 2007/2008, and eventually January 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Once you all realize that it doesn't snow anymore. You will all be much happier. Like the Patriots, we had a good run for a couple decades. Sure it'll snow occasionally just like the Pats will win a few games, but it's over for a while. Get used to it. (grabs bottle of whiskey at 9am). 1 1 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, that is my feeling.....we transition from Dec 2009 to Dec 2007/2008, and eventually January 2008. And how were those snow wise?(years mentioned) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2020 Author Share Posted November 30, 2020 Just now, Chrisrotary12 said: Once you all realize that it doesn't snow anymore. You will all be much happier. Like the Patriots, we had a good run for a couple decades. Sure it'll snow occasionally just like the Pats will win a few games, but it's over for a while. Get used to it. (grabs bottle of whiskey at 9am). Hopefully we can grab a bootleg NAO to salavage medicority, and name it Can Newton. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2020 Author Share Posted November 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, 512high said: And how were those snow wise?(years mentioned) It means a snowy month of December...targeted interior and high elevations of SNE first half, then north and northeast SNE second half. January transitions to more huggers and cutters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 May have to watch 12/7. Some hints on guidance from that and not as voodoo as this weekends deal or lack thereof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2020 Author Share Posted November 30, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: May have to watch 12/7. Some hints on guidance from that and not as voodoo as this weekends deal or lack thereof. Yea, it wouldn't take a miracle, but unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 This is encouraging to see. Certainly good to have to prevent a pig anyways. The 50mb vortex getting some jabs. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 FWIW 10mb gets quite a punch too, but may as well as the folks at the ISS what the temperature is out that way. I don't look that high typically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 We haven’t even started winter and Ray is already forecasting the grinch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This is encouraging to see. Certainly good to have to prevent a pig anyways. The 50mb vortex getting some jabs. Yep...you can see it at the H5 level a little bit too....look at the height trends N of the AK in the 11-15 loop....lot of rising heights up there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We haven’t even started winter and Ray is already forecasting the grinch. You can forecast a grinch every year....just assume it will happen until you get close enough to rule it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yep...you can see it at the H5 level a little bit too....look at the height trends N of the AK in the 11-15 loop....lot of rising heights up there. Yeah seems to be some connection WRT height as you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Disagree? Looks more la ninaish, but my guess is the arctic will determine whether its more gradient or gave yard. 07-08 gradient up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Scott ... I think - depending on one's tech ... - this weekend is more than mere 'voodoo' Tho I am not entirely certain what you mean by that? I think it means plausible but unlikely ?? Either way, I don't get to see the EPS -based index derivatives, so taken fwiw ... my assessment is purely GEFs oriented. That said, this weekend has some spotential for significant storminess ..100 or so hrs .. is already part of the same "correcting" circulation medium. Not talking a major event or anything though for that D4.5 range but ... it's like we are rolling with weighted dice more favorably from now through Dec 10 because imm blw - ...Yes to the latter. Whether that is another inland cordillera runner, or PD redux or an asteroid impact ... just sayn' an active pattern. This is actually hugely signaled really by the 2-week declination of the AO/NAO ...apparently moving in a coupled fashion, landing on the top of the total +2.5 SD PNA correction that frankly doesn't really immediately collapse out there at the end of week two but merely is concertedly slumping off ... That could emerge more positive in the member blend. The long of the short on all that is ... that a negatively differentiating polar index that is armed by the NAO as being a cold delivery source, with an H.A. signal ( at mid latitudes ...) with the PNA in tandem is, in my mind, more substantial than mere plausible already underway so ... mm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2020 Author Share Posted November 30, 2020 23 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We haven’t even started winter and Ray is already forecasting the grinch. Well, both 2007 and 2008 had one....on the brighter side, maybe we can push it back since that type of gradient pattern may set up a bit later in the month, than those years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, both 2007 and 2008 had one....on the brighter side, maybe we can push it back since that type of gradient pattern may set up a bit later in the month, than those years. Order me up 12/13 - 12/16/07 centered over 12/24 -12/27/20 please. TIA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, both 2007 and 2008 had one....on the brighter side, maybe we can push it back since that type of gradient pattern may set up a bit later in the month, than those years. 2 week winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2020 Author Share Posted November 30, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 2 week winter? Maybe for you...I should squeeze a month. March is a wildcard. I could see a return of blocking and/or PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Break out the shorts on Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 At this point, Who cares what comes after...enjoy what you can, while you can. Things will change anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2020 Author Share Posted November 30, 2020 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Break out the shorts on Christmas That is what I was reading, but that is probably referring more to the Pacific. Obviously the PNA won't last....a lot will depend on the arctic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Maybe for you...I should squeeze a month. March is a wildcard. I could see a return of blocking and/or PNA. That’s exciting...I have my sled standing back and standing by. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 We always knew it was going to be a warm and wet winter, not sure why everyone is so surprised. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That’s exciting...I have my sled standing back and standing by. And last year was supposed to be a great winter...I wouldn’t be buying into any one idea completely at this point..but that’s just my opinion based on the past ideas. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 37 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Scott ... I think - depending on one's tech ... - this weekend is more than mere 'voodoo' Tho I am not entirely certain what you mean by that? I think it means plausible but unlikely ?? Either way, I don't get to see the EPS -based index derivatives, so taken fwiw ... my assessment is purely GEFs oriented. That said, this weekend has some spotential for significant storminess ..100 or so hrs .. is already part of the same "correcting" circulation medium. Not talking a major event or anything though for that D4.5 range but ... it's like we are rolling with weighted dice more favorably from now through Dec 10 because imm blw - ...Yes to the latter. Whether that is another inland cordillera runner, or PD redux or an asteroid impact ... just sayn' an active pattern. This is actually hugely signaled really by the 2-week declination of the AO/NAO ...apparently moving in a coupled fashion, landing on the top of the total +2.5 SD PNA correction that frankly doesn't really immediately collapse out there at the end of week two but merely is concertedly slumping off ... That could emerge more positive in the member blend. The long of the short on all that is ... that a negatively differentiating polar index that is armed by the NAO as being a cold delivery source, with an H.A. signal ( at mid latitudes ...) with the PNA in tandem is, in my mind, more substantial than mere plausible already underway so ... mm... I just meant that I think the potential for anything interesting this weekend is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Break out the shorts on Christmas I said last week that second half of the month looked to be heading to more Nina look. But that doesn't mean shorts on Christmas. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2020 Author Share Posted November 30, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: I said last week that second half of the month looked to be heading to more Nina look. But that doesn't mean shorts on Christmas. Well, for him it may. Doesn't mean that we won't still be shoveling lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: At this point, Who cares what comes after...enjoy what you can, while you can. Things will change anyway. agreed...I think winter forecasting is pretty much voodoo at this point (could be due to the changing background climate making analogs almost useless, probably why Bastardi is wrong 99.9% of the time these days). I see countless forecasts every year that end up wrong or revised over and over again to make them look "better" and when they do end up getting them close to being right, it is usually for the wrong reasons. We get snow in October and April/May (Tip did call the October snow well in advance, kudos). Nino's and Nina's don't even act like the normal events of the past...I love the tracking aspect of weather, regardless of rain or snow... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Has anybody ever seen the extended GEFS out to 35 days? LOL...I don't think the met community cares one bit for that. What a shame, all that money wasted on that project...can think of many other areas where it could have been spent more wisely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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