Baroclinic Zone Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The thing is, ensembles nailed this hideous end of November into early December pattern. Hasn’t been a surprise. I’m just glad that the pattern clearly shows a break and changes after first week of Dec. we’ve had many a winter where it sticks around and then you are screwed. What’s hideous about it? Warm and intermittent rains. Perfect for November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: What’s hideous about it? Warm and intermittent rains. Perfect for November. This may come as a surprise to you but not everybody loves rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 Just now, kdxken said: This may come as a surprise to you but not everybody loves rain. It’s November, expecting snowstorms is analogous to expecting a Category 3 hurricane to hit in May. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: It’s November, expecting snowstorms is analogous to expecting a Category 3 hurricane to hit in May. No desire or expectations for snow. I just f****** hate rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 12 minutes ago, qg_omega said: It shows a 5 to at most 10 day break before reverting to what we have now ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 Latest GFS makes up for the Maine snow deficit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 1 minute ago, kdxken said: No desire or expectations for snow. I just f****** hate rain. Yep clear and cold is fine too. Warmish rain in November is miserable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 9 minutes ago, kdxken said: No desire or expectations for snow. I just f****** hate rain. You should move to the southwest. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The thing is, ensembles nailed this hideous end of November into early December pattern. Hasn’t been a surprise. I’m just glad that the pattern clearly shows a break and changes after first week of Dec. we’ve had many a winter where it sticks around and then you are screwed. Yes, but .. the worry and look is it’s starting to show a look mid and especially later month if what we’re in now. That has been my worry all along and now some longer range stuff is starting to show that. I got accused of trolling and my honest to God gut was that exact scenario . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 Lots of train wrecks today. Let’s get to next weekend and see if at least CNE and NNE see the light at the end of the tunnel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yes, but .. the worry and look is it’s starting to show a look mid and especially later month if what we’re in now. That has been my worry all along and now some longer range stuff is starting to show that. I got accused of trolling and my honest to God gut was that exact scenario . WTF are you guys talking about? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 34 minutes ago, qg_omega said: It shows a 5 to at most 10 day break before reverting to what we have now No it doesn’t. Link? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 21 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Latest GFS makes up for the Maine snow deficit. . Its a borderline system with not much cold around for that one on the 5th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: WTF are you guys talking about? Seemed like way out was starting to lose the +PNA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Seemed like way out was starting to lose the +PNA 384? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 28 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Latest GFS makes up for the Maine snow deficit. That was a serviceable run through Day 10. Lots of mess-scale snow chances in the upslope areas. I feel like any snow we get in the next 7-10 days though is going to be of that nature over synoptic snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That was a serviceable run through Day 10. Lots of mess-scale snow chances in the upslope areas. I feel like any snow we get in the next 7-10 days though is going to be of that nature over synoptic snow. Yeah, looks like after we get rid of this POS thing late Tuesday we had back into a decent light snow every few days look at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 384? No the EPS. I don’t use the FV3’s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That was a serviceable run through Day 10. Lots of mess-scale snow chances in the upslope areas. I feel like any snow we get in the next 7-10 days though is going to be of that nature over synoptic snow. 10-15 and snow making temps gets us some serviceable terrain and in the glades Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 Took a 125 mile ride through the Whites today. Beautiful day with the Franconia and Presidentials range snow covered above 2500 feet or so. Hit the snow line at the top of the Kanc. Rivers still running low. Lots of hunters and hikers out. Anyone else use weatherbell? Seems like it is running really slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 54 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: No it doesn’t. Link? I think they are talking about the MJO going into phases 4-6 and the Strong La Nina base state. But there is a lot of uncertainty there. The same statistical algorithm that weeks ago projected the upcoming wild pattern in the eastern US now projects this for the end of December. (Shown is 200 hPa height anomalies, red positive). ( Courtesy of Paul Roundy on Twitter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: J Spin will eventually stop giving Phin daily affirmations and pick me up posts . If we see a few “Red Rum ..Red Rum” posts when he returns from MD to a green yard at the overlook ..we will worry. Poor Phin; he did point out he’s been sort of traumatized because he’d been shut out of substantial snows in the Mid Atlantic for the past season or two? We’ve just been trying to keep him apprised that the current pace of snowfall around here has been pretty average. Sure there are seasons where the snowpack sets in by early or mid-November, but the average outside the high elevations is more near the end of the month or beginning of December. Snows should be returning around here in the Wednesday timeframe anyway based on the forecast. He should definitely make sure those driveway markers are up at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: No the EPS. I don’t use the FV3’s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Just now, weathafella said: Yeah.. you can see the beginnings of it there. I hope it’s wrong . It def could be. I’m just worried . That’s all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah.. you can see the beginnings of it there. I hope it’s wrong . It def could be. I’m just worried . That’s all I’m very worried it’s only a 5 to 7 day period that has potential before we revert to our current base state 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Kevin and Nikolai. Marriage made in heaven 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Just now, weathafella said: Kevin and Nikolai. Marriage made in heaven Jer.. my man. I truly hope you’re right about a big middle of month on thru the end. Just super gunshy this year . Gut instinct tells me not to invest in these big ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Anyone averring declarations over next weekend's system should be advised - The entire N-stream and pattern morphology subtended beneath just got shredded of the previous continuity, over the last two cycles ... it started to unravel 00z and really it's blown apart worse in most guidance all day. You don't know what is coming at us next weekend ... All the while, the GEFs still honking a concerted PNA arc heading toward D10 - for all we know this is model black out nonsense... .... I don't buy the Euro sell beyond 90 hours anywhere east of the Rockies ... The cohesive singular vortex idea that was suppose to dump in..then wait on the N/stream for the 'ally 'oop' phase, has gotten obliterated compared to previous cycles .. Hate to say but smacks as Miami rule rearing it's ugly head ... heights in the south ...kill yeah when they are planetary anchored, even subtly anomalously high, and not merely rolling out ahead... What happens? the velocities physically increases as that thing dumps in ~ 72 hours and as such ... tears it open and meat shears it to entrails.. ... The Euro tries to maintain cohesion beyond D5 but that's probably 4-d conservatism ... and the GFS wonders off with a faux Dec 2005 redux but only at 500 mb .. ugh... It's amess... Agreed with the previous Met poster that the 850 mb thermal layout is odd everywhere - .... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 9 minutes ago, J.Spin said: Poor Phin; he did point out he’s been sort of traumatized because he’d been shut out of substantial snows in the Mid Atlantic for the past season or two? We’ve just been trying to keep him apprised that the current pace of snowfall around here has been pretty average. Sure there are seasons where the snowpack sets in by early or mid-November, but the average outside the high elevations is more near the end of the month or beginning of December. Snows should be returning around here in the Wednesday timeframe anyway based on the forecast. He should definitely make sure those driveway markers are up at this point. We’ve been basically shut out of any snow since 2016 in MD. And that whole winter sucked outside the HECS. Basically it never snows there unless it’s 2-3 feet in a single storm every 7-10 years. 3-5/4-6 storms are very rare. It’s all boom or bust now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Anyone averring declarations over next weekend's system should be advised - The entire N-stream and pattern morphology subtended beneath just got shredded from previous continuity, over the last two cycles ... it started to unravel 00z and really it's blown apart worse .... I don't buy the Euro sell beyond 90 hours anywhere east of the Rockies ... The cohesive singular vortex idea that was suppose to dump in..then wait on the N/stream has gotten obliterated compared to previous cycles .. Hate to say but smacks as Miami rule rearing it's ugly head ... heights in the south ...kill yeah when then are planetary anchored and not merely rolling out ahead... What happens? the velocities physically increase as that thing dumps in ~ 72 hours and as such ... tears it open and meat shears it entrails.. ... The Euro tries to maintain cohesion beyond D5 but that's probably 4-d conservatism ... and the GFS wonders off with a faux Dec 2005 redux but only at 500 mb .. ugh... It's amess... Agreed with the previous Met poster that the 850 mb thermal layout is odd everywhere - .... Yeah next weekend def looks a bit different than even the 00z cycle and a lot different than yesterday’s 12z cycle. Still a tough ask for snow with the antecedent airmass but if things break perfectly you can’t rule it out. That change we’ve seen is step one in completing the Hail Mary. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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