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December 2020 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Posts like Walt’s this morning are perfect. They offer optimism backed by science, but also leave room that the outcome may not be exactly as desired. It shows both sides abs how how both outcomes can happen and at 5 days out have equal weight. Right now there’s a very chance of snow up north and ice in SNE away from coast. There’s also a chance things trend less wintry and he laid that out nicely. It shouldn’t be look for negatives and what could go wrong . It should be opposite of that, but mention it as an option .

Here’s a perfect example .. offer positives, acknowledge negatives 

With science 

42 minutes ago, wdrag said:

At 120 hours... I think we have time to see a weaker low in the eastern Great Lakes, more of a development on wfront near or s of I80 for ice I-84.  I will say this, it appears to me the GGEM is slightly colder...ever so, and it and the GFS are on board with 1-3" of rain. Additionally, the GFS is a bit colder.  Does not take much to keep colder air in for ice, high terrain I84.  Right now, I'll go with the preponderance of guidance-forum sentiment but I think, unless the EC reverts to it's previous days of 12/24-25 scenario, that the more wintry options have opened up for I84, certainly more than we had yesterday and prior. I am not discounting the northern stream weakening eastward out of the Ohio Valley forcing the occlusion s of LI. It is winter and not every storm is going to be wet.  You'll have more info prior to me as I've got to go offline for a while. From my perspective, the fact that the GFS has some ice along I84 is significant since the GFS BL is not very good as compared to the eventual NAM and RGEM incorporations tomorrow and beyond. Noting WPC is waiting on on it's D4-6 winter weather, which means they too are a little more concerned than previously for the interior ne. Here is their updated D4-6 QPF from 14z, with no input from the 12z cycle.  So not gospel but I think a decent idea.

Screen Shot 2020-12-27 at 10.44.20 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-12-27 at 10.44.37 AM.png

 

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2 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Usually a Scooter melt is a sign of good things to come.

Calling out weenies and melts are different. This is just trying to get people to understand, but the force of snow is strong. I get it.  The true melts occurred already on Christmas from some. 

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1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Just got to Laconia . People here seem to be pretty aggressive as I see a few folks out on Ice.

Church Landing at Mills falls . In between holidays , amazing (silly) rates for this place 

Love Meredith! Spent many a summer trips at Churches Landing with my family when I was younger.... also took a ride in a Meredith police car and had a brief stay at the police station as well, ah the memories 

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38 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Very true story. Providence Civic Center. Fleetwood Mac. I walked backstage, walked into their dressing room, sat down next to Stevie Nick's like I belonged there. Casually eventually got up and left. No one said a word about me being there. They were warming up their voices. Good lord she was even hotter in person.Coolest thing I ever did.

Great story.  But Did you talk to her at all? Like “Hi Stevie,  I’m Steve.”   


I mean You both have the same name pretty much too. 

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49 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Very true story. Providence Civic Center. Fleetwood Mac. I walked backstage, walked into their dressing room, sat down next to Stevie Nick's like I belonged there. Casually eventually got up and left. No one said a word about me being there. They were warming up their voices. Good lord she was even hotter in person.Coolest thing I ever did.

That is a classic story!  “Just go in and act like you belong”. It worked!

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

You keep it real most all of the time(I certainly appreciate that).

Although, I think at times, you take your frustration with the pattern out on the other folks, that are just talking about modeling that shows a colder idea. And then you disguise your negative frustration as being objective, and keeping it real, when modeling is clearly trending away from the big warm cutter idea.  That seems to be your defense mechanism at times, and it seems to be happening to a degree now.  I don’t think anybody is expecting a big frozen event in SNE yet.  At least they shouldn’t be.  
 

Just my observation that I’ve seen you do this on occasion.  Doesn’t make you a bad MET,  just human.   And Don't worry about the die hard weenies...they’re on their own.  They’ll learn the hard way.  

Deep thoughts from WinterWolf,  Psychiatrist 

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37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Calling out weenies and melts are different. This is just trying to get people to understand, but the force of snow is strong. I get it.  The true melts occurred already on Christmas from some. 

I think many people had melts in their mind, that they did not express here on the forum, and now they have transferred their meltiness to you as if you are the only one melting.  It's a Classic Sigmund Freud set up to shift their own reaction to someone else.

I am at one with my melts...I become the melt and make no apologies for it. 

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12 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That is a classic story!  “Just go in and act like you belong”. Ot worked!

Yeah ... like that Signer that slipped on stage next to Obama back in '13 ... and was completely mimicking how to sign-language for the hearing impaired and of course... since so few in attendance actually need or require that assistance, pretty much the whole press conference went down with this guy 'faking'  The one or two deaf people are looking around scratching their head - I guess it would be the equivalent of us hearing this:   " [0y89yh  because -> AHFDHF  when -8-87077- no sire fah;fhhhfd;sdh;f  why! "      Lol, like, there's some language in there somewhere, you know -

man... that's like the funniest thing ever... If the guy wasn't a quack  ... I mean was that like a streaker at a ball game.  I wonder where that clown came from. It's not that far fetched to imagine a drunk college kid doing that on a goof or dare - hahaha

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7 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

I think many people had melts in their mind, that they did not express here on the forum, and now they have transferred their meltiness to you as if you are the only one melting.  It's a Classic Sigmund Freud set up to shift their own reaction to someone else.

I am at one with my melts...I become the melt and make no apologies for it. 

He melted in classic Scooter style, took it out on non met forum members, its how he rolls.

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

He melted in classic Scooter style, took it out on non met forum members, its how he rolls.

I think he hit the nail on the head. People want to melt, but don't know how to express it. Here comes Scooter dropping reality grenades and lash out on the poor met. I'm just telling it as I see it. If we get snow and Ice to 84 like Kevin claims...I'll be the first to post he was right. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I think hit the nail on the head. People want to melt, but don't know how to express it. Here comes Scooter dropping reality grenades and lash out on the poor met. I'm just telling it as I see it. If we get snow and Ice to 84 like Kevin claims...I'll be the first to post he was right. 

Well to be clear/fair, he was posting Walt’s explanation.  Walt was the guy talking about the 84 potential.  

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