CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro ensembles are kind of a mess....not very cold, but there is a chance if things line up perfect. You can see the PNA ridge which has been there all along, but the plethora of waves to the east are kind screwing with the solutions. I agree with you that the stemwinder cutoff in the lakes is unlikely. Looks like we have a wave train before things shift around later in the 11-15 day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 heh... you know guys - we may never get a idealized pattern construct out of the next 45 days anyway - we may have to deal with working out chicken salad out of chicken shit - but I'd take the EPS look and run with it if I were a winter enthusiast faced with the previous - That looks like home grown marginal cold sufficiency to me to be honest - or within range...and those waves could easily morph into a repeat storm scenario... Have to remember, these correction periods are always a problem in the guidance ...at the thresholds of mode changes. you know this ...for the general consumer - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 No surprise, weeklies are a big change. Week 3 has more of a +PNA with Davis Straits ridge. Week 4 tries to get some lower heights into AK again, but ridging into the SW US and leftover ridging off Labrador. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: heh... you know guys - we may never get a idealized pattern construct out of the next 45 days anyway - we may have to deal with working out chicken salad out of chicken shit - but I'd take the EPS look and run with it if I were a winter enthusiast faced with the previous - That looks like home grown marginal cold sufficiency to me to be honest - or within range...and those waves could easily morph into a repeat storm scenario... Have to remember, these correction periods are always a problem in the guidance ...at the thresholds of mode changes. you know this ...for the general consumer - The pattern does get better as Scott said beyond that...it's still not "great", but you'll note how the low heights/vortex has retrograded from AK/Bering Strait back into eastern Siberia/Kamchatka....into a Aleutian Low/+PNA/neutralish EPO pattern. But we'll see...that's at the end of the run once again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 why are we getting a nino pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2020 Author Share Posted November 23, 2020 That doesn't look bad...especially week 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2020 Author Share Posted November 23, 2020 I knew all of the bridge jumping over December was BS. Just let it play out... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 11 minutes ago, forkyfork said: why are we getting a nino pattern I said the same. I certainly did not expect that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2020 Author Share Posted November 23, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: I said the same. I certainly did not expect that. The NAO help isn't a surprise to me, but I did not expect PNA in December....that would be a welcome addition. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: heh... you know guys - we may never get a idealized pattern construct out of the next 45 days anyway - we may have to deal with working out chicken salad out of chicken shit - but I'd take the EPS look and run with it if I were a winter enthusiast faced with the previous - That looks like home grown marginal cold sufficiency to me to be honest - or within range...and those waves could easily morph into a repeat storm scenario... Have to remember, these correction periods are always a problem in the guidance ...at the thresholds of mode changes. you know this ...for the general consumer - We like marginal. Means icy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 K, manual relo of this post - lol: "..At that range (360) ? (EPS mean) mm I'd say that's pretty amped frankly - usually by then entropy has taken over and we end up in the annular look, such that even smaller 'formulaic' structures should be of interest if they are capable of cutting through the morass of a spaghetti layout and still have that signal - In any case, I bet there are a handful of members that are pretty tall in the west... even if there are those that are flatter, too Edit, sure if this is Dec in nature move it - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 23 minutes ago, forkyfork said: why are we getting a nino pattern Yeah it's weird. Hard to find other moderate Ninas (or stronger) that show this behavior. As I mentioned earlier, 1975-1976 did have a similar pattern that lasted quite a while, but I don't know of any others that weren't weak (like '95-'96) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 Don't get me started ... lol - ... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2020 Author Share Posted November 23, 2020 50 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Don't get me started ... lol - ... Does the reason begin with an "H", and end with an "L"...? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 Looks like snows coming 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: The pattern does get better as Scott said beyond that...it's still not "great", but you'll note how the low heights/vortex has retrograded from AK/Bering Strait back into eastern Siberia/Kamchatka....into a Aleutian Low/+PNA/neutralish EPO pattern. But we'll see...that's at the end of the run once again. Yeah, looks like we start to cool Canada at the end of the run. That’s a pretty abrupt change on the weeklies for the first half of December. Last Friday it pretty much a Niña pattern for the month of December 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 maybe we oughta call these "rhino" patterns ... when the Nina is like the ass-end of a dead rhino .. .it looks like a Nino 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 Marginal cold for SNE means I should be good to go up here. Warm/wet and cold/dry patterns suck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 8 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Marginal cold for SNE means I should be good to go up here. Warm/wet and cold/dry patterns suck. You won't get the full NNE experience until it finally gets cold enough and then all the sudden the storms start exiting stage right in a suppressed pattern of "Congrats south of the Pike". 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 8 minutes ago, powderfreak said: You won't get the full NNE experience until it finally gets cold enough and then all the sudden the storms start exiting stage right in a suppressed pattern of "Congrats south of the Pike". Hopefully we don’t go right from this shit pattern to that heartbreak pattern. A string of strong coastals in the Gulf of Maine with temps in the 20s would be nice first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 34 minutes ago, powderfreak said: You won't get the full NNE experience until it finally gets cold enough and then all the sudden the storms start exiting stage right in a suppressed pattern of "Congrats south of the Pike". You and Phin praying for the ARW model cores to be right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You and Phin praying for the ARW model cores to be right. I’ll show him the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: I’ll show him the good stuff. We’re past that I’m sure. Not to say that can’t happen, but that stretch of virtually 3 seasons where you guys were fringed, probably won’t be repeated for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We’re past that I’m sure. Not to say that can’t happen, but that stretch of virtually 3 seasons where you guys were fringed, probably won’t be repeated for awhile. I just remember Eyewall moving from North Carolina to BTV... and then BTV didn't record a single warning criteria snowstorm at the airport for two full winters, lol. Hopefully Phin brings NNE better luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 37 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I just remember Eyewall moving from North Carolina to BTV... and then BTV didn't record a single warning criteria snowstorm at the airport for two full winters, lol. Hopefully Phin brings NNE better luck. Meanwhile scooter had like 8 warning events and a couple of 20 inchers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Meanwhile scooter had like 8 warning events and a couple of 20 inchers. A dark time in our NNE snow history. Like 2010 in SNE watching some in mid-Atlantic rack up 80-100" on the season. It was pretty much that season's absurdity (south) and heartbreak (north), set just a bit further to the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: You won't get the full NNE experience until it finally gets cold enough and then all the sudden the storms start exiting stage right in a suppressed pattern of "Congrats south of the Pike". oh yes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: I just remember Eyewall moving from North Carolina to BTV... and then BTV didn't record a single warning criteria snowstorm at the airport for two full winters, lol. Hopefully Phin brings NNE better luck. We won't wait as long to kick phin to the curb as we did with eyewall if winter doesn't produce, Shorter trip back to the MA region, Ha ha. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: We won't wait as long to kick phin to the curb as we did with eyewall if winter doesn't produce, Shorter trip back to the MA region, Ha ha. We’ll “watch” his place for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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