MJO812 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: To be fair, it looked better a week ago. We might just be cancelling most of January for no reason. We go through this all the time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Beers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Cancelling January is just as bad as locking in 2011 at this point. Guidance isn't consistent at all right now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 50 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Um you told me no 10 11 coming. Of course with Jan 11 not starting to Jan 11 I assumed you had some science behind that 48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ginxy, for Christ sake....Jan '11? Yes, I'll toss that like a Cam Newton pick-6. But, that doesn't mean January is tossed. Tossing Jan means it's skunked. I'm not there yet. I'm tossing one of the most epic January's to happen. This is what we get when the weather sucks, Hate to see it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Yeah...no question ( Scott ) it was better oh.. 8 days back. We had the 29th, and it looked good, ..based upon the relative slowing of the 70 N band ...giving the hemisphere an implied cyclonic gist - that's an intrinsic constructive wave interference pattern as a canvas ..blah blah. what happens - ... every cycle since has been further and further from that same complexion. It's like we've seen three patterns: that one... then the shit in between, now there is a new semblance emerging perhaps last night into this morning.. Less conventional or 'mainstay' model types unraveling the multi stream phased look. I tell you one thing that's under the radar in all this.. That big Lakes cut and warm intrusion event over Xmas .. those types of cyclones have a climate signal for preceding -NAOs... It is interesting that the runs 8 days ago seem to suggest one - only to fail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 51 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well some tell it how it is. Some continue with the voodoo. Yep. Some think the Atlantic is greater then the pac. You’re 100% correct 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: This is what we get when the weather sucks, Hate to see it. This forum is whack lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: We might just be cancelling most of January for no reason. We go through this all the time. Well I haven't seen anyone with credibility, cancelling January. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yep. Some this the Atlantic is greater then the pac. You’re 100% correct PNA and EPO is more important than the AO and NAO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: This forum is whack lol That’s terrible for NW Maine at this juncture, I’m usually riding up there NYE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yep. Some think the Atlantic is greater then the pac. You’re 100% correct 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: PNA and EPO is more important than the AO and NAO What were the indices on this date guys? Jan 13 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: That’s terrible for NW Maine at this juncture, I’m usually riding up there NYE. Yea terrible but I was basically talking to SNE weenies along with our apparent NYC imports 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yea terrible but I was basically talking to SNE weenies along with our apparent NYC imports NY is a different planet, Literally and figuratively to try to compare to here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 A true davis strait block will trump a shitty PAC, but a garbage N ATL ridge won't. So it all depends on where it sets up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: This forum is whack lol EPO/Machias payback for 2014-15? I'm also skeptical about those low depths along the Frontier area from Jackman to St.-Pamphile, especially since the Allagash corridor a few dozen miles east is credited with 2-3 times as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: A true davis strait block will trump a shitty PAC, but a garbage N ATL ridge won't. So it all depends on where it sets up. Blocking east of Greenland sucks move it west into Greenland boom. Patience grasshoppers 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: What were the indices on this date guys? Jan 13 2011 That's actually a decent PAC, look at that AK ridging. It's a classic massive poleward Aleutian ridge...-EPO/-PNA/-NAO pattern. The NAO is crucial there though for avoiding some cutters, but the PAC is keeping a lot of cold in Canada there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: This forum is whack lol Brutal for Pit2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 The cold being centered on the wrong side of the pole is not good. We need EPO to seed Canada 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: To be fair, it looked better a week ago. 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Here is the other problem. Note the massive anomalies near Davis Straits. You'd think big block right? But look at the curvature of the height lines. Some subtle anticyclonic turning, but for those anomalies...you would expect more of a stout, deep ridge there....even in a smoothed out mean. I think the puke Pacific look is just pumping warm air into the normally cold parts of that area in Canada. The result are heights that are probably biased high due to warm temp anomalies vs actually a giant ridge. The temp anomalies are near +20F. I don't doubt there are members with a ridge in the Davis Straits, but perhaps don't be fooled by those massive anomalies, as that may be more of a result of Pacific puke air. And this 354 hr prog may look better a week from now, too, as far as the Pacific is concerned. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 The cold being centered on the wrong side of the pole is not good. We need EPO to seed Canada Summed up in concise words and years of experience.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Wow buffalo webcam. Snowing pretty good. https://firstwebcam.com/live-webcams/buffalo-new-york-elmwood-avenue-mr-pizza If it wasn’t for stupid Christmas I would have been near Buffalo right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 I know it’s the NAM at 84 hour but it does look like it’s about disjoint energy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 6 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: I know it’s the NAM at 84 hour but it does look like it’s about disjoint energy Disjoint energy?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 44 minutes ago, tamarack said: EPO/Machias payback for 2014-15? I'm also skeptical about those low depths along the Frontier area from Jackman to St.-Pamphile, especially since the Allagash corridor a few dozen miles east is credited with 2-3 times as much. Nice snowstorm in the Eastern Maine areas today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 29 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: And this 354 hr prog may look better a week from now, too, as far as the Pacific is concerned. Your missing my point. All these people talking massive -NAO are being head faked by warm temps making these heights look like a big block. It's not much of a ridge at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 35 minutes ago, weathafella said: The cold being centered on the wrong side of the pole is not good. We need EPO to seed Canada Its coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Para gfs for the possible storm on the 4th 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Your missing my point. All these people talking massive -NAO are being head faked by warm temps making these heights look like a big block. It's not much of a ridge at all. My point was that the 354 hr prog you highlighted could look a lot different a week from now, that's all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Its January climo averages you are looking to compare against with anomalies if looking at 850 or 2 m temps. Plenty of room. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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