Typhoon Tip Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro did change a lot aloft though. It definitely made a step toward the less phased scenario even if t didn’t come all the way there. It wouldn’t take a whole lot more to bring the wintry scenarios into play. Check out 108h today vs 120h on the 00z run...notice up in Canada you see today’s run having a bunch of energy sheared out north of Lake Superior...that also causes the main trough to the south to become more elongated and positive tilted Lol, I think I've been agreeing with you over the last hour and didn't see your's/anyone else's posts.. I was just commenting that the GFS made a siggy whole scale change ...and I suspect we may be on the verge of just outright changing the landscape of that period of time... Dec 30 - ...I dunno the 4th... and it's not clear to me that whatever happens in there isn't multi staged, too... I could see this getting into a lull between type ordeal - ... These flat +PNAP flows that are fast... Really, the last thing was an anomaly relative to that to be honest. Almost consider this uncharted waters - I'd also encourage the tele user to pay attention to those annotations I made earlier - the AO/NAO are almost unusable presently at CPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Yeah the faster flow in Canada is definitely something to cheer for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Euro is atrocious with a trough in the west. Time for a nap. Ate too much. Be back later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro is atrocious with a trough in the west. Time for a nap. Ate too much. Be back later. take your time 1 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Hey if it doesn’t snow here can always watch webcams where it is. Just looked at a couple of live cams from Buffalo and Watertown. Just pounding there. Be better watching it outside our windows but always happy to see someone getting it good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Maybe some nice outside weather? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: If I have 30” of snow otg by 2/2 we will build statues of you. Look forward to seeing them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2020 Author Share Posted December 26, 2020 26 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yep and it’s real warm for our neck of the woods in the metro area too...upper 50’s May as well be 80, at this point. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: We have been. Yea flip flops every LR model run, solid science Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Wow buffalo webcam. Snowing pretty good. https://firstwebcam.com/live-webcams/buffalo-new-york-elmwood-avenue-mr-pizza 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Yea flip flops every LR model run, solid science ? We've said for days it's been getting worse on the guidance. The cutter occurred with 2 weeks notice. The Pacific has always sucked, and the Atlantic for the time being, has ridging where it is not favorable. Why would anyone give false hope and lie about what is coming? The next couple of weeks look rather unfavorable for anything due to all those circumstances. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: ? We've said for days it's been getting worse on the guidance. The cutter occurred with 2 weeks notice. The Pacific has always sucked, and the Atlantic for the time being, has ridging where it is not favorable. Why would anyone give false hope and lie about what is coming? The next couple of weeks look rather unfavorable for anything due to all those circumstances. Might as well cancel winter then if things look unfavorable for next couple of weeks. I guess the AO and NAO doesn't mean shit since the pattern looks like trash. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Might as well cancel winter then if things look unfavorable for next couple of weeks. I guess the AO and NAO doesn't mean shit since the pattern looks like trash. It's all about where the anomalies are located. I hate those effing charts, because they don't tell the story. I never ever look at those. I need to see the H5 anomalies. Also, way too early to cancel. People are losing their shit because of the Grinch storm. Some of the interior already has 2 small snow events this month with a 10-15" storm in between. Well over their December snow climo. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Might as well cancel winter then if things look unfavorable for next couple of weeks. I guess the AO and NAO doesn't mean shit since the pattern looks like trash. Pacific is the cold water faucet. Atlantic is the drain. We need some cold running from the Pacific to get caught in the slow drain of the Atlantic. Unfortunately the slow Atlantic drain is draining warm water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: ? We've said for days it's been getting worse on the guidance. The cutter occurred with 2 weeks notice. The Pacific has always sucked, and the Atlantic for the time being, has ridging where it is not favorable. Why would anyone give false hope and lie about what is coming? The next couple of weeks look rather unfavorable for anything due to all those circumstances. You tossed the entire month of Jan this morning lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It's all about where the anomalies are located. I hate those effing charts, because they don't tell the story. I never ever look at those. I need to see the H5 anomalies. Also, way too early to cancel. People are losing their shit because of the Grinch storm. Some of the interior already has 2 small snow events this month with a 10-15" storm in between. Well over their December snow climo. He is above normal snow currently and nyc is at 10. Plenty of winter left. It just looks hostile for a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You tossed the entire month of Jan this morning lol Where? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Things wouldn't be so dire if we hadn't lost our complete packs. Bare ground coming into Jan doesn't make for happy weenies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Where? Um you told me no 10 11 coming. Of course with Jan 11 not starting to Jan 11 I assumed you had some science behind that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Just now, 78Blizzard said: Things wouldn't be so dire if we hadn't lost our complete packs. Bare ground coming into Jan doesn't make for happy weenies. Its the same year after year in here, ground goes bare after a foot of snow let the melts begin. Never fails Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Um you told me no 10 11 coming. Of course with Jan 11 not starting to Jan 11 I assumed you had some science behind that Ginxy, for Christ sake....Jan '11? Yes, I'll toss that like a Cam Newton pick-6. But, that doesn't mean January is tossed. Tossing Jan means it's skunked. I'm not there yet. I'm tossing one of the most epic January's to happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 1 minute ago, REH said: Oops. Well some tell it how it is. Some continue with the voodoo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ginxy, for Christ sake....Jan '11? Yes, I'll toss that like a Cam Newton pick-6. But, that doesn't mean January is tossed. Tossing Jan means it's skunked. I'm not there yet. I'm tossing one of the most epic January's to happen. Well with a retrograding block, AO dropping to record levels, disturbed vortex I happen to think the potential for slow moving cold systems increase each week in Jan. Let the chips falls where the may. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Well with a retrograding block, AO dropping to record levels, disturbed vortex I happen to think the potential for slow moving cold systems increase each week in Jan. Let the chips falls where the may. I'm not arguing later in the month...Perhaps that happens. But the first week...maybe even first half looks pretty nasty IMO. Maybe the NNE interior can make a run if that block does move more to the west. It doesn't mean we can't see snow, but when I look at the nrn hemi....I sure don't get the snowy vibes for SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: I'm not arguing later in the month...Perhaps that happens. But the first week...maybe even first half looks pretty nasty IMO. Maybe the NNE interior can make a run if that block does move more to the west. It doesn't mean we can't see snow, but when I look at the nrn hemi....I sure don't get the snowy vibes for SNE. Like I said starting in week 2 the vibe in here changes. The day to day melts are great. Shit already people who fell hook line and sinker for 168 hr progs are like wait things have shifted a bit today. So very typical 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Here is the other problem. Note the massive anomalies near Davis Straits. You'd think big block right? But look at the curvature of the height lines. Some subtle anticyclonic turning, but for those anomalies...you would expect more of a stout, deep ridge there....even in a smoothed out mean. I think the puke Pacific look is just pumping warm air into the normally cold parts of that area in Canada. The result are heights that are probably biased high due to warm temp anomalies vs actually a giant ridge. The temp anomalies are near +20F. I don't doubt there are members with a ridge in the Davis Straits, but perhaps don't be fooled by those massive anomalies, as that may be more of a result of Pacific puke air. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 5 minutes ago, REH said: Everyone is welcome to share their opinions. I am sure you have been wrong in the past. Weather forecasting is a very humbling business Yes, and I always admit that. But my job is to also not hide from something unfavorable and just spread optimism that is borderline inaccurate. I love snow as much as anyone, but the next two weeks look tough. I don't know what else to say. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yes, and I always admit that. But my job is to also not hide from something unfavorable and just spread optimism that is borderline inaccurate. I love snow as much as anyone, but the next two weeks look tough. I don't know what else to say. It’s because DT said last week end of December looked epic, weenies are detached from reality now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 5 minutes ago, qg_omega said: It’s because DT said last week end of December looked epic, weenies are detached from reality now He was hyping the end of this month into January with a good pattern. To be fair , it wasn't only him. People thought this negative NAO and AO pattern was going to produce a great pattern. Even people mentioned 2011. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 To be fair, it looked better a week ago. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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