December 2020 Discussion

[powderfreak]

40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Phin is melting too. Hate to see it.

To be fair everyone told him it would be like living in the Chugach Range of Alaska for snow.  But it’s still New England lol.

[jbenedet]

The teleconnections make a significant flip next week, and looks like tomorrow’s cutter will prove to be key in developing the blocking for next weekend’s event.

odd to see the euro so warm given UL trough over Eastern conus in early December...at least it’s seeing the significant blocking much more than the GFS. 

Almost as though you need to overlay the blocking of the 12z euro with the temps of the 12z GFS to get a good idea of what’s coming next weekend...

[CoastalWx]

Next weekend is Zzzzzzz. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I see this as a successive transition. IOW, we aren't done with cutters or messy events. I just think it will take awhile. It finally looks like the second week and beyond are more favorable, but I hope people don't expect something on 12/8, or the start of the second week, especially SNE. 

I fully expect some bad tracks even during good stretches this season.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, jbenedet said:

The teleconnections make a significant flip next week, and looks like tomorrow’s cutter will prove to be key in developing the blocking for next weekend’s event.

odd to see the euro so warm given UL trough over Eastern conus one early December...at least it’s seeing the significant blocking much more than the GFS. 
 

Almost as though you need to overlay the blocking of the 12z euro and the temps of the 12z GFS to get a good idea of what’s coming next weekend...

So your saying you think there will be significant model changes coming as the modeling figures out the blocking and trough orientation? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Next weekend is Zzzzzzz. 

Yea, that is a given. Next weekend has alway been WMH.

[jbenedet]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

So your saying you think there will be significant model changes coming as the modeling figures out the blocking and trough orientation? 

Yes many changes still coming. And I don’t think model accuracy will increase stepwise until tomorrow’s event is somewhat in the rearview...

[STILL N OF PIKE]

 J Spin will eventually stop giving Phin daily affirmations and pick me up posts . If we see a few “Red Rum ..Red Rum” posts when he returns from MD to a green yard at the overlook  ..we will worry 

 

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The teleconnections make a significant flip next week, and looks like tomorrow’s cutter will prove to be key in developing the blocking for next weekend’s event.

odd to see the euro so warm given UL trough over Eastern conus in early December...at least it’s seeing the significant blocking much more than the GFS. 

Maybe global warming?  I think another met was opining about how warm it was despite low heights last night.

<duck and run>

[WinterWolf]

Just now, jbenedet said:

Yes many changes still coming. And I don’t think model accuracy will increase stepwise until tomorrow’s event is somewhat in the rearview...

The Pope has spoken.  
 

Thanks for the response. 

[jbenedet]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Next weekend is Zzzzzzz. 

That’s pretty funny. Best chance, by far, at SECS since April, but let’s “zzzz” at day 6

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, that is a given. Next weekend has alway been WMH.

Yep. I’d watch next weekend if I was in a northern greens hamlet or some other typical upslope place that can do well on a CCB changeover with W or NW winds.... but down here we’ll need to hit triple 7s like twice in a row to get something significant out of it in terms of snow. 

Still some disagreement on exactly how the pattern shakes out after 12/5. GEFS and GGEM ensembles are still more amped out west, though they’ve converged some since last week. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

That’s pretty funny. Best chance, by far, at SECS since April, but let’s “zzzz” at day 6

Don't hold your breath.

[qg_omega]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

That’s pretty funny. Best chance, by far, at SECS since April, but let’s “zzzz” at day 6

There is no cold, you talking LES or Upslope?  

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

There is no cold, you talking LES or Upslope?  

 

There should be cold if the teleconnections are correct with the AO going negative 

[jbenedet]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Don't hold your breath.

Don’t take out of context. I’m not calling for a SECS. Is what I said statistically invalid? Even if odds are 5% at the moment, that’s much higher than during the window I mentioned. Only point I’m making. Most of the big players are on the field...at least there’s that...

[Damage In Tolland]

What a mess. Ugh 

[jbenedet]

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Maybe global warming?  I think another met was opining about how warm it was despite low heights last night.

<duck and run>

Nice prod. I think western Canada is warm due to Flow over Eastern pacific. But -NAO/-AO means we should be able to tap cold from Arctic to our north and rely less on CP from the west/north west which is skunked from the pacific....

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Don’t take out of context. I’m not calling for a SECS. Is what I said statistically invalid? Even if odds are 5% at the moment, that’s much higher than during the window I mentioned. Only point I’m making. Most of the big players are on the field...at least there’s that...

You can make that assumption by looking at h5 on the euro.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, jbenedet said:

Nice prod. I think western Canada is warm due to Flow over Eastern pacific. But -NAO/-AO means we should be able to tap cold from Arctic to our north and rely less on CP from the west/north west which is skunked from the pacific....

Exactly.

[jbenedet]

A big storm here will likely be a disturbance that doesn’t blow up until offshore. The Miller A look initially being advertised on guidance unlikely in my view. I think a very dynamic Miller B is most likely...

[qg_omega]

Looks like a bad angle of the cold combined with AGW

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

A big storm here will likely be a disturbance that doesn’t blow up until offshore. The Miller A look initially being advertised on guidance unlikely in my view. I think a very dynamic Miller B is most likely...

I think this is valid for the season in general. 

[Damage In Tolland]

I recall it was after Dec 5th , then after the 8th. Then overrunning then an ensemble compromise  .Now it’s into mid month. At some point something has to change 

[CoastalWx]

Yeah prior to 1950 maybe this would be a 40F rain instead of 41.5F. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I recall it was after Dec 5th , then after the 8th. Then overrunning then an ensemble compromise  .Now it’s into mid month. At some point something has to change 

It changes after the 5th, so that is correct. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I recall it was after Dec 5th , then after the 8th. Then overrunning then an ensemble compromise  .Now it’s into mid month. At some point something has to change 

It's always been after the 10th for Will, Scott and myself.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It changes after the 5th, so that is correct. 

Changes, yea...snow after the 10th.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It changes after the 5th, so that is correct. 

Ok ! 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Changes, yea...snow after the 10th.

Right, but to the human version of Santa's Little Helper in Tolland.....changes after the 5th must equal snow, in his ears.