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December 2020 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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23 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

What a f’n vacation week disaster for ski areas.  
You are not really fixing this with a night or two of snow making.

Hopefully, if we do get a cutter next week, it’s not an absolute torch like this one.

No safe pond ice between here and Caribou and probably not much ice at all. 

Bad as it gets for winter recreation. Not sure what we’ll do with the kids for the next 10 days; can only do so many puzzles.

I guess the silver lining is that the lack of significant ice kept this from being more of a flooding disaster for some areas.

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On 12/23/2020 at 2:10 PM, CoastalWx said:

This looks a lot better than last year did at this time.  Not even close. Sure maybe we roll snake eyes, but this isn’t last year. 
 

I already enjoy this year better. A great Halloween and a big snow with no Ptype issues. A win.

Snakes wrapped around our necks, our eyes popped out of heads 

On 12/23/2020 at 2:10 PM, weathafella said:

I think the pack hangs on.

Def drunk 

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9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps looks alot better than the gefs

Even the GEFS isn’t exactly a shutout type pattern.  All 3 of the ensembles GEFS GPS EPS suggest there’s a period day 8-12 or so where things briefly look bad before more ridging looks to occur out west with the low going back towards the Aleutians 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lol I know. Just joshing. Just so tough to stomach nothing to look forward to . Literally not a winter event until maybe the one you mentioned at day 14

And some of our Chicago relatives booked a place in the LES part of MI for the next 5 days.   I went from bragging to begging in a week.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Pacific is and always will be king. Also yea, SSW are always overhyped. It’s the same shit year after year from the long range voodoo mets. There is a physical response from these and it’s true, but so many times this phenomenon is dry humped to a meteorological stub 

Whatever happened to the original space weather guy....Jim-can’t remember his last name.   15 years ago no one paid attention.   Is forecasting improved knowing this stuff?   

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pacific is and always will be king. Also yea, SSW are always overhyped. It’s the same shit year after year from the long range voodoo mets. There is a physical response from these and it’s true, but so many times this phenomenon is dry humped to a meteorological stub 

We are sort of due for a good one.  Last good one was what?  January 2012?  It didn’t impact us but feels like ages since a fairly effective SSW occurred.  

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1 hour ago, Fozz said:

Is there any good climatological reason why early January has usually been such an unimpressive time for storms for most of the last 20 years? Even worse than December. Of course 2011 and 2014 were exceptions, but more often than not the first half of January has been a lame period ever since the turn of the century.

Prob just coincidence. Up here, in addition to 2011/2014, we had a monster on 1/4/18 that whiffed down in DC/BWI. We had a pretty good one on 1/7-8/17 too...and actually one of the few good storms that hit New England in 2010 that whiffed the mid-Atlantic happened on a retro job from Jan 1-3, 2010. Tamarack up in Maine loves to curse that storm as the end of that winter up there. 

Hopefully we score another good one  this winter. 

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When you wipe out snow literally to the Laurentian shield like this one did ..( I never thought that would actually verify last week when I jokingly said it) you just know not to expect much from the winter. I mean every ski resort in NY state closed.. I’m sure most in SNE shut and I don’t know about VT, NH and ME. This one was a top cutter . The NYE one looks identical. How are they going to recover? 

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10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Whatever happened to the original space weather guy....Jim-can’t remember his last name.   15 years ago no one paid attention.   Is forecasting improved knowing this stuff?   

Jim Hughes. Don’t think i ever saw him after about 2008 or 2009. Hopefully he didn’t pass and just went elsewhere. 

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20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When you wipe out snow literally to the Laurentian shield like this one did ..( I never thought that would actually verify last week when I jokingly said it) you just know not to expect much from the winter. I mean every ski resort in NY state closed.. I’m sure most in SNE shut and I don’t know about VT, NH and ME. This one was a top cutter . The NYE one looks identical. How are they going to recover? 

I felt better about this storm when I checked out what was going on with it in eastern Canada. Total shitshow way north of the border. We missed this one by thousands of miles. LOL

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4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I felt better about this storm when I checked out what was going on with it in eastern Canada. Total shitshow way north of the border. We missed this one by thousands of miles. LOL

Did you lose it all? It’s one thing in SNE to lose it , but for a place like Dendy and you in CAD land to lose 35-40” is mind boggling 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Did you lose it all? It’s one thing in SNE to lose it , but for a place like Dendy and you in CAD land to lose 35-40” is mind boggling 

I lost it all. I didn't have 40 inches OTG. About 12" here north of the Presidentials. Some of the pictures from central VT and NH are heart-breaking. Beautiful thick packs with straight edge shovel and snowblower lines on the walkways wiped out overnight.

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37 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When you wipe out snow literally to the Laurentian shield like this one did ..( I never thought that would actually verify last week when I jokingly said it) you just know not to expect much from the winter. I mean every ski resort in NY state closed.. I’m sure most in SNE shut and I don’t know about VT, NH and ME. This one was a top cutter . The NYE one looks identical. How are they going to recover? 

Awful.

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just see a dangerous trend appearing now that the blocking has set up in the wrong spot and the cutters are raining down. People have lost all sound, rationale hope in this pattern, so now it's up to the SSW to "shake things up". Big fricking mistake IMO.

I think your odds are better if you get rid of the blocking, and just pop an EPO or PNA ridge.

The blocking has evolved into an extension of the WAR

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43 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Prob just coincidence. Up here, in addition to 2011/2014, we had a monster on 1/4/18 that whiffed down in DC/BWI. We had a pretty good one on 1/7-8/17 too...and actually one of the few good storms that hit New England in 2010 that whiffed the mid-Atlantic happened on a retro job from Jan 1-3, 2010. Tamarack up in Maine loves to curse that storm as the end of that winter up there. 

Hopefully we score another good one  this winter. 

Of the 4 "winter" months here, January has had the fewest storms of 10"+ with only 5 (DFM have 8,10.12, respectively) but 3 of those 5 have come during the month's 1st 5 days.  SSS

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Good news is that it should die out over the next month.

Give me la nina gradient over this shit.

I’d take the North Atlantic ridging with Feb climo wavelengths over a typical Feb La Niña gradient which often porks us.

But who knows, maybe we get neither pattern and it’s a nice +PNA which is the best in February  

 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I’d take the North Atlantic ridging with Feb climo wavelengths over a typical Feb La Niña gradient which often porks us.

But who knows, maybe we get neither pattern and it’s a nice +PNA which is the best in February  

 

Well, I think that is what you're going to get IMO, so make the best of it.

I'm open to anything since everything has porked me.

 

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not even saying winter is over, January should be okay. But this epic pattern looks tenuous, and I don't want to hear the "SSW will shake things up" BS.

 

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Seems like a lot of folks are punting January on December 25th...

 

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