December 2020 Discussion

[SnowHole413]

It’s over folks, come back next year 

[ORH_wxman]

29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Those SSW events are the biggest politics in seasonal forecasting...if they work out, but it doesn't snow...then there is a perfectly valid scientific reason why the PV went to the other side of the globe. Everybody wins..if they don't work out, just make some BS up and toss the word propagate in the explanation and you're golden.

Lol this is pretty funny. Not a bad analogy either. The SSW should be an accession to your Fraud Five. Like an honorable mention. 

 

[dendrite]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol this is pretty funny. Not a bad analogy either. The SSW should be an accession to your Fraud Five. Like an honorable mention. 

 

6th amendment

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol this is pretty funny. Not a bad analogy either. The SSW should be an accession to your Fraud Five. Like an honorable mention. 

 

I just see a dangerous trend appearing now that the blocking has set up in the wrong spot and the cutters are raining down. People have lost all sound, rationale hope in this pattern, so now it's up to the SSW to "shake things up". Big fricking mistake IMO.

I think your odds are better if you get rid of the blocking, and just pop an EPO or PNA ridge.

[PhineasC]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just see a dangerous trend appearing now that the blocking has set up in the wrong spot and the cutters are raining down. People have lost all sound, rationale hope in this pattern, so now it's up to the SSW to "shake things up". Big fricking mistake IMO.

I just want it drier with some upslope and FROPAs. That's all. Hopefully New Years is truly the last of these cutters.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, leo2000 said:

The Major SSW is coming hopefully it can shake things up before the Middle of the Month. As the lag is not really long after it happens. 

You’re just repeating the hype from the weenie mets on twitter. Literally every winter from November through March they scream about the massive SSWs and SPV splits that are coming. Snake oil salesmen. Fact is, despite what these clowns say, SSWs and SPV splits don’t automatically mean a huge arctic cold and snow dump into the eastern US. In fact, it may just benefit Eurasia and do nothing here, as has been the case numerous times in the past. But they have everyone fooled to believe that every SSW or SPV split event is going to turn the east coast into an arctic tundra. Most of the time they are wrong in predicting these events to top it off, they either don’t end up happening or happen on a very muted scale. It’s a real bad sign when you are depending on SSWs and SPV splits to cause large scale favorable pattern changes, a lot of things are usually going really wrong at that point.....

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I just want it drier with some upslope and FROPAs. That's all. Hopefully New Years is truly the last of these cutters.

We can get cutters like nobody’s business . 

[Fozz]

Yeah whenever there is any talk of SSW, it's usually when people are desperate.

 

[leo2000]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

You’re just repeating the hype from the weenie mets on twitter. Literally every winter from November through March they scream about the massive SSWs and SPV splits that are coming. Snake oil salesmen. Fact is, despite what these clowns say, SSWs and SPV splits don’t automatically mean a huge arctic cold and snow dump into the eastern US. In fact, it may just benefit Eurasia and do nothing here, as has been the case numerous times in the past. But they have everyone fooled to believe that every SSW or SPV split event is going to turn the east coast into an arctic tundra. Most of the time they are wrong in predicting these events to top it off, they either don’t end up happening or happen on a very muted scale. It’s a real bad sign when you are depending on SSWs and SPV splits to cause large scale favorable pattern changes, a lot of things are usually going really wrong at that point.....

I think this winter may resemble 2014-2015 if so that when the polar vortex was responsible for a cold and snowy winter. 

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Yeah whenever there is any talk of SSW, it's usually when people are desperate.

 

I don’t need an epic pattern. I just need whatever pattern it is that doesn’t flood tropical rain deep into central/eastern Canada every few weeks. 

[dendrite]

Eh...cutters happen. This one sucked for Christmas standards, but it's not like they're that unusual in Dec or the first half of Jan. They become climatologically rare for NNE after the middle of Jan, but this is like expecting the dews to have settled in by June 25th.

[Fozz]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Eh...cutters happen. This one sucked for Christmas standards, but it's not like they're that unusual in Dec or the first half of Jan. They become climatologically rare for NNE after the middle of Jan, but this is like expecting the dews to have settled in by June 25th.

That's very good to know. Might be yet another reason why the second half of winter is much better for skiing.

Do ocean temps have a role in this?

[dendrite]

Just now, Fozz said:

That's very good to know. Might be yet another reason why the second half of winter is much better for skiing.

Let me rephrase that...lol. Cutters can happen all season. But they don't look the same later in the season as they do now. We don't usually advect 50s dews up there later in Jan or Feb/Mar. It's more of a cold rain that does lesser damage.

[RDRY]

10 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I don’t need an epic pattern. I just need whatever pattern it is that doesn’t flood tropical rain deep into central/eastern Canada every few weeks. 

Every few weeks -- we should be so lucky. Right now, it's every few days!!

[Fozz]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Let me rephrase that...lol. Cutters can happen all season. But they don't look the same later in the season as they do now. We don't usually advect 50s dews up there later in Jan or Feb/Mar. It's more of a cold rain that does lesser damage.

Yeah that makes more sense, especially with colder SSTs later in the season.

[Fozz]

Is there any good climatological reason why early January has usually been such an unimpressive time for storms for most of the last 20 years? Even worse than December. Of course 2011 and 2014 were exceptions, but more often than not the first half of January has been a lame period ever since the turn of the century.

[Torch Tiger]

3 hours ago, Cold Miser said:

 

lol. Duuuuuuuude. WTF is your complication?  
I melt over rain, and you just...plain...MELT.  
"fat ugly family"...lololol.  Kevin's family is the opposite of that, and he's not a boomer.

But thanks for the Christmas pick-me-up. Laughter is good as we peer out our windows at the brown landscape.

Boomer usage is from younger Gen Y/ especially gen-Z'ers....basically anyone born before 1985 is currently a boomer. 

[SJonesWX]

2 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

Pretty weird to see how green the grass is (now that the snow's gone).  I'd expect it to be brown--but mostly it's green in the neighborhood.   Is that the result of living in a lesco-kind-of-world?  Hopefully we can get some snow in the next few weeks.

because it was never really that cold before the snow fell. It’ll brown up nicely if/when the ground freezes

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm not even saying winter is over, January should be okay. But this epic pattern looks tenuous, and I don't want to hear the "SSW will shake things up" BS.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not even saying winter is over, January should be okay. But this epic pattern looks tenuous, and I don't want to hear the "SSW will shake things up" BS.

Everyone is banking on the SSW again.  The epic January calls because of that might be in jeopardy 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Those SSW events are the biggest politics in seasonal forecasting...if they work out, but it doesn't snow...then there is a perfectly valid scientific reason why the PV went to the other side of the globe. Everybody wins..if they don't work out, just make some BS up and toss the word propagate in the explanation and you're golden.

The problem is that most people don’t know what the f they are talking about and think every warm pulse observed is of the same ilk as those that actually effect the PV ...  

They are not firstly that common tho. And yes ... propagation is apart ... 

If there was a bona fide event tomorrow .... the PV/ -AO ensues in 20 days. 
 

Per my own experience the consensus ... ~ half the people don’t even realize propagation is necessary, and of those only half over are even aware of the time lag between the onset of a warming event and the realization of a falling AO ...

And yes ...which means that the AO can be forced to fall for other reasons that aren’t even related to SSWs ... such that it gets lost in the din of other ongoing hemispheric various modes so in that sense it probably is overused ... 
 

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Snowy May White Halloween, Rainy , mild TGiving , rainy and torch Xmas, check check, check  and check . 
Up next , rainy and torch NY .. (box soon to be checked)

 

Makes complete sense. Thanks 2020. More please!

[PhineasC]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Snowy MY, White Halloween, Rainy , mild TGiving , rainy and torch Xmas, check check, check  and check . 
Up next , rainy and torch NY .. (box soon to be checked)

 

Makes complete sense. Thanks 2020. More please!

2021 says... hold my beer.

[PhineasC]

45 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Let me rephrase that...lol. Cutters can happen all season. But they don't look the same later in the season as they do now. We don't usually advect 50s dews up there later in Jan or Feb/Mar. It's more of a cold rain that does lesser damage.

Technically speaking, 50 degree rain would have been colder.  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

What a f’n vacation week disaster for ski areas.  
You are not really fixing this with a night or two of snow making.

Hopefully, if we do get a cutter next week, it’s not an absolute torch like this one.

No safe pond ice between here and Caribou and probably not much ice at all. 

[weathafella]

It’s clown range but there’s a signal for around 1/8-9 on eps.

[Go Kart Mozart]

The posts today remind me of posts from...oh, I don't know, maybe January 20th, 2015?

[PhineasC]

8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

What a f’n vacation week disaster for ski areas.  
You are not really fixing this with a night or two of snow making.

Hopefully, if we do get a cutter next week, it’s not an absolute torch like this one.

No safe pond ice between here and Caribou and probably not much ice at all. 

Just spread some butter on that moldy bread, will taste just fine.

[weathafella]

9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

What a f’n vacation week disaster for ski areas.  
You are not really fixing this with a night or two of snow making.

Hopefully, if we do get a cutter next week, it’s not an absolute torch like this one.

No safe pond ice between here and Caribou and probably not much ice at all. 

Timing is as exquisitely bad as possible.

[Go Kart Mozart]

33 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The problem is that most people don’t know what the f they are talking about and think every warm pulse observed is of the same ilk as those that actually effect the PV ...  

They are not firstly that common tho. And yes ... propagation is apart ... 

If there was a bona fide event tomorrow .... the PV/ -AO ensues in 20 days. 
 

Per my own experience the consensus ... ~ half the people don’t even realize propagation is necessary, and of those only half over are even aware of the time lag between the onset of a warming event and the realization of a falling AO ...

And yes ...which means that the AO can be forced to fall for other reasons that aren’t even related to SSWs ... such that it gets lost in the din of other ongoing hemispheric various modes so in that sense it probably is overused ... 
 

 

 

But Tip, aren't the wave fluxes opposed by an induced residual mean meridional circulation that resembles Lagrangian transport in the zonal mean?