MJO812 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 6 minutes ago, PhineasC said: First week of January looks like garbage on all models. Sure, it can change. Maybe second week. Hope your optimism pays off. This will be a brutal week stretch however. You live in New England You dont live in the Mid Atlantic anymore 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 We may be losing Phin. 1 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: If it happens the lag is about 3-4 weeks. And that will depend on if it couples and effects us I heard it only takes 10-14 days. With the Blocking continuing it should hook up with the SSW causing the coupling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: You live in New England You dont live in the Mid Atlantic anymore And I live in NNE and after the NYE cutter that will be three huge rainstorms since the snow season started. I’m sure it will correct at some point, but a dry FROPA instead of an atmospheric river tropical storm would be a nice change of pace. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I say that as many celebrate different holidays. It’s out of respect. Not only that but there is an entire month from Thanksgiving through New Year’s Day that is packed with multiple holidays. At the very least, saying “happy holidays” is a time saver. I’ve never seen a problem with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: We may be losing Phin. These huge holiday rainers are wearing me down. I can’t butter my bread with upslope enough to offset these beasts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Just now, leo2000 said: I heard it only takes 10-14 days. With the Blocking continuing it should hook up with the SSW causing the coupling. Longer then that. Take 2018 for example. We had one in February 2018 and didn’t feel the effects until March. We had one in January 2019 but it never coupled so it didn’t nothing for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 I never been much for New Year's just another year to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 You’d think with all that blocking we wouldn’t get those kinds of cutters. Maybe the models are especially clueless, or we are in for a massive longitudinal super ridge which I don’t recall ever seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Longer then that. Take 2018 for example. We had one in February 2018 and didn’t feel the effects until March. We had one in January 2019 but it never coupled so it didn’t nothing for us. You seemed optimistic just last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: These huge holiday rainers are wearing me down. I can’t butter my bread with upslope enough to offset these beasts. lol. Welcome to the holiday misery period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, Fozz said: You’d think with all that blocking we wouldn’t get those kinds of cutters. Maybe the models are especially clueless, or we are in for a massive longitudinal super ridge which I don’t recall ever seeing. Blocking looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: Blocking looks great What does the EPO look like? That page doesn’t include the EPO even though it really should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, Fozz said: You’d think with all that blocking we wouldn’t get those kinds of cutters. Maybe the models are especially clueless, or we are in for a massive longitudinal super ridge which I don’t recall ever seeing. That's one way to call it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, Fozz said: What does the EPO look like? That page doesn’t include the EPO even though it really should. Even with a bad EPO with those that indices that good the pattern wouldn’t be as awful as some of the GFS op runs or ensembles have attempted to spit out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 12z GFS and CMC are locked in on the next cutter. Those things never waver much. Keep those blinds shut until mid-January. Locked and loadedSent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 11 minutes ago, PhineasC said: These huge holiday rainers are wearing me down. I can’t butter my bread with upslope enough to offset these beasts. I’m sure you’ll get memes of snowy climates and bread and butter upslope with the 2” you’ll get this week only to be gone by the beginning of 2021. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Even with a bad EPO with those that indices that good the pattern wouldn’t be as awful as some of the GFS op runs or ensembles have attempted to spit out Agreed. They can flip on a dime, and with those indicators they should. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’m sure you’ll get memes of snowy climates and bread and butter upslope with the 2” you’ll get this week only to be gone by the beginning of 2021. Even the Jay Peak crew knows they need a big storm with meaty snow at this point. Moose fart snow is awesome but can’t overcome a cutter cold/warm pattern like this. It’s better as window dressing and to freshen up the pack, not create it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 19 minutes ago, MJO812 said: You seemed optimistic just last week. I’m still optimistic that nyc snows again. But for the first half of January their are some caution flags. It’s not a slam dunk January 2011 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: If you don’t know what they celebrate you can say that. If you know I celebrate Christmas you say Merry Christmas. I wish Happy Hanukkah to folks that celebrate that. It’s how the world has always worked Pretty much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 More melts in here than my vanished snow pack today! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 28 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Longer then that. Take 2018 for example. We had one in February 2018 and didn’t feel the effects until March. We had one in January 2019 but it never coupled so it didn’t nothing for us. It depends though it has apparently happened in one week a couple of times before. Other times 2-3 weeks roughly. January 2019 wasn't a very strong warming either this one is a very very strong warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Just now, weathafella said: More melts in here than my vanished snow pack today! LOL. I'm not melting--I've come to terms with our fate. I will let boat-shopping keep my spirits up--summer won't be too bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 17 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Even the Jay Peak crew knows they need a big storm with meaty snow at this point. Moose fart snow is awesome but can’t overcome a cutter cold/warm pattern like this. It’s better as window dressing and to freshen up the pack, not create it. I’m joking around. It will come, at least you had a big one earlier this month. You’ll get yours there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2020 Author Share Posted December 25, 2020 48 minutes ago, leo2000 said: The Major SSW is coming hopefully it can shake things up before the Middle of the Month. As the lag is not really long after it happens. Those SSW events are the biggest politics in seasonal forecasting...if they work out, but it doesn't snow...then there is a perfectly valid scientific reason why the PV went to the other side of the globe. Everybody wins..if they don't work out, just make some BS up and toss the word propagate in the explanation and you're golden. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 31 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Even with a bad EPO with those that indices that good the pattern wouldn’t be as awful as some of the GFS op runs or ensembles have attempted to spit out The gfs looks completely at odds with CMC after New Year's. There's zero chance the gfs is correct with those indices as shown. Pattern still looks good after New Year's storm. The blocking doesn't even kick in until then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I’m joking around. It will come, at least you had a big one earlier this month. You’ll get yours there. This is no damn joke! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Those SSW events are the biggest politics in seasonal forecasting...if they work out, but it doesn't snow...then there is a perfectly valid scientific reason why the PV went to the other side of the globe. Everybody wins..if they don't work out, just make some BS up and toss the word propagate in the explanation and you're golden. The only thing we have going for us is that the Pv position can’t get any worst currently. So if we do get a ssw hopefully it can shake that up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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