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December 2020 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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6 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

First week of January looks like garbage on all models. Sure, it can change. Maybe second week. Hope your optimism pays off. This will be a brutal week stretch however. 

You live in New England 

You dont live in the Mid Atlantic anymore 

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Just now, MJO812 said:

You live in New England 

You dont live in the Mid Atlantic anymore 

And I live in NNE and after the NYE cutter that will be three huge rainstorms since the snow season started. I’m sure it will correct at some point, but a dry FROPA instead of an atmospheric river tropical storm would be a nice change of pace.  

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I say that as many celebrate different holidays. It’s out of respect.

Not only that but there is an entire month from Thanksgiving through New Year’s Day that is packed with multiple holidays. At the very least, saying “happy holidays” is a time saver. I’ve never seen a problem with it. 

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Just now, leo2000 said:

I heard it only takes 10-14 days. With the Blocking continuing it should hook up with the SSW causing the coupling. 

Longer then that. Take 2018 for example. We had one in February 2018 and didn’t feel the effects until March. 
 

We had one in January 2019 but it never coupled so it didn’t nothing for us. 

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3 minutes ago, Fozz said:

You’d think with all that blocking we wouldn’t get those kinds of cutters. Maybe the models are especially clueless, or we are in for a massive longitudinal super ridge which I don’t recall ever seeing.

That's one way to call it   ;)

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11 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

These huge holiday rainers are wearing me down. I can’t butter my bread with upslope enough to offset these beasts. 

I’m sure you’ll get memes of snowy climates and bread and butter upslope with the 2” you’ll get this week only to be gone by the beginning of 2021.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m sure you’ll get memes of snowy climates and bread and butter upslope with the 2” you’ll get this week only to be gone by the beginning of 2021.

Even the Jay Peak crew knows they need a big storm with meaty snow at this point. Moose fart snow is awesome but can’t overcome a cutter cold/warm pattern like this. It’s better as window dressing and to freshen up the pack, not create it. 

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28 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Longer then that. Take 2018 for example. We had one in February 2018 and didn’t feel the effects until March. 
 

We had one in January 2019 but it never coupled so it didn’t nothing for us. 

It depends though it has apparently happened in one week a couple of times before. Other times 2-3 weeks roughly. January 2019 wasn't a very strong warming either this one is a very very strong warming. 

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17 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Even the Jay Peak crew knows they need a big storm with meaty snow at this point. Moose fart snow is awesome but can’t overcome a cutter cold/warm pattern like this. It’s better as window dressing and to freshen up the pack, not create it. 

I’m joking around. It will come, at least you had a big one earlier this month. You’ll get yours there.

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48 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

The Major SSW is coming hopefully it can shake things up before the Middle of the Month. As the lag is not really long after it happens. 

Those SSW events are the biggest politics in seasonal forecasting...if they work out, but it doesn't snow...then there is a perfectly valid scientific reason why the PV went to the other side of the globe. Everybody wins..if they don't work out, just make some BS up and toss the word propagate in the explanation and you're golden.

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31 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Even with a bad EPO with those that indices that good the pattern wouldn’t be as awful as some of the GFS op runs or ensembles have attempted to spit out 

The gfs looks completely at odds with CMC after New Year's.

There's zero chance the gfs is correct with those indices as shown. Pattern still looks good after New Year's storm.

The blocking doesn't even kick in until then.

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7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Those SSW events are the biggest politics in seasonal forecasting...if they work out, but it doesn't snow...then there is a perfectly valid scientific reason why the PV went to the other side of the globe. Everybody wins..if they don't work out, just make some BS up and toss the word propagate in the explanation and you're golden.

The only thing we have going for us is that the Pv position can’t get any worst currently. So if we do get a ssw hopefully it can shake that up 

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