December 2020 Discussion

[PhineasC]

I can feel the spirit of Christmas and baby Jesus in this thread. 

[SnowGoose69]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Finally get the NAO and no help.

 

That pattern is more or less physically impossible.  I guess it’s simply the averaging out of the members but if you had normal heights or weak ridging like that from SEA to YUK and that sort of block in the Davis Straits you wouldn’t see long duration or stable above normal heights like that near Ohio or Virginia.  That’s probably a product of members trying to develop a deep storm over Colorado 

[dryslot]

I thought SnowNH was back after that melt.

[mahk_webstah]

We’ve had really weird modeling for the last several years. Tip has spoken to this. I think we’re in the sorting out process to a new pattern and it’s gonna take a while before anything really gets clear. I think I’m gonna have significant snow by January 5

[Henry's Weather]

5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

We’ve had really weird modeling for the last several years. Tip has spoken to this. I think we’re in the sorting out process to a new pattern and it’s gonna take a while before anything really gets clear. I think I’m gonna have significant snow by January 5

To get more mesoscale, I just think models struggle to handle period transitions, and since the strong block has been consistent, I'm relatively confident everything else will fall in place with time. 

[WeatherX]

19 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Outages?   

Who hit 70mph, Coast? 

Congrats to all

LOCATION                     SPEED     TIME/DATE       PROVIDER             

...CONNECTICUT...

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
GREENWICH                    71 MPH    1131 PM 12/24   CWOP                 
STAMFORD                     70 MPH    0328 AM 12/25   CWOP                 
BRIDGEPORT                   61 MPH    0354 AM 12/25   NOS-NWLON            
BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT           58 MPH    0352 AM 12/25   ASOS                 
BRIDGEPORT                   53 MPH    0330 AM 12/25   CWOP                 
FAIRFIELD                    49 MPH    1232 AM 12/25   CWOP                 
DANBURY AIRPORT              47 MPH    0253 AM 12/25   ASOS                 
DANBURY                      46 MPH    0305 AM 12/25   CWOP           

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

To get more mesoscale, I just think models struggle to handle period transitions, and since the strong block has been consistent, I'm relatively confident everything else will fall in place with time. 

I would also side more EPS.  The last few winters it seems whatever ensemble groups handles the first 10-16 day pattern shift in later November or early December ends up being the one that is right the rest of the way.  Last winter it was the GEFS for sure 

[HoarfrostHubb]

41 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lots of 50 60s and 70s in CT as predicted

Where did you see lots of 60s and 70s?

edit.  Just saw your post

[UnitedWx]

2 hours ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

This post is disgusting.

Agreed! Wow

[JC-CT]

This storm really did destroy any chance at something early next week. What a grinch.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

24 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I thought SnowNH was back after that melt.

That guy had some hall of fame posts. 

[dryslot]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

That guy had some hall of fame posts. 

Ha ha, Yes.

[ineedsnow]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lol. What a melt . Dude probably wears a mask in the shower . 

 

Lets see if we can turn the pattern around in early Jan

Let the sheep be sheep.. Hope you and your family have a very Merry Christmas!!!

[EastonSN+]

Stole from MA thread.

https://mobile.twitter.com/judah47/status/1342479169675022337?ref_url=https%3a%2f%2fwww.americanwx.com%2fbb%2findex.php%3fapp%3dcoremodule%3dsystemcontroller%3dembedurl%3dhttps%3a%2f%2ftwitter.com%2fjudah47%2fstatus%2f1342479169675022337

 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Let the sheep be sheep.. Hope you and your family have a very Merry Christmas!!!

You too man . Merry Christmas to you. (I bet he says Happy holidays)  

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Stole from MA thread.

https://mobile.twitter.com/judah47/status/1342479169675022337?ref_url=https%3a%2f%2fwww.americanwx.com%2fbb%2findex.php%3fapp%3dcoremodule%3dsystemcontroller%3dembedurl%3dhttps%3a%2f%2ftwitter.com%2fjudah47%2fstatus%2f1342479169675022337

 

He was disrobing to splits yesterday saying cold potential in the east. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

You too man . Merry Christmas to you. (I bet he says Happy holidays)  

I say that as many celebrate different holidays. It’s out of respect.

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He was disrobing to splits yesterday saying cold potential in the east. 

Yeah. Pretty amazing how the good look went bad in a couple days. Hopefully flips right back to good.

[Cold Miser]

3 hours ago, Mothman said:

Dangerous and selfish. Several people on here talking about nightmarish covid scenarios that they’ve been through and you are bragging about being inside with generations of people. Irresponsible and downright stupid to post this. 

 

2 hours ago, Mothman said:

I’m not telling you what to do. I’m telling you how I feel about your behavior. It’s disgusting and you’re a selfish idiot, the reason our whole country is sick and getting worse. Because you have to have one stupid dinner with your fat ugly family. Go ahead and block me. This makes me sick. Boomers are the worst. The privilege is insane. 

lol. Duuuuuuuude. WTF is your complication?  
I melt over rain, and you just...plain...MELT.  
"fat ugly family"...lololol.  Kevin's family is the opposite of that, and he's not a boomer.

But thanks for the Christmas pick-me-up. Laughter is good as we peer out our windows at the brown landscape.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah. Pretty amazing how the good look went bad in a couple days. Hopefully flips right back to good.

The Pacific always sucked. So basically you are at the mercy of the blocking and any shifts by a few hundred miles. That easily can happen. 
 

Anyways it’s not worth losing it over a couple of days of meh runs. We’ll see what happens this week. 

[Damage In Tolland]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I say that as many celebrate different holidays. It’s out of respect.

If you don’t know what they celebrate you can say that. If you know I celebrate Christmas you say Merry Christmas. I wish Happy Hanukkah to folks that celebrate that. It’s how the world has always worked 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

And some are still in denial regarding climate change

 

I know more people who play winter golf than I know who  participate in winter sports. At one time I knew many people who skied. I now know 1 person who is a an avid skier. I know a couple that enjoy snowmobiling They have a place in Pittsburg. Hard to believe that at one time North  Andover had a ski area.

The problem is ... climate change has no direct advocate in the form of appealing to one's corporeal senses.  Or if so, so passively it can be figuratively written off as just a weird, little forgettable curiosity that'll fail really to compete with the other more pressing urgencies of modernity.  Because of this, it is 'insidious' ... expressing its self in nuances so subtle  they are undetectable to common daily life..

Like, being still inside the warm sector ...east of a cold front, and the wind just abates.  Not impossible...  but rare.  We should be kissing the WCB up against the baroclinic wall, where it's western mass in being lifted and peeled back into a quasi trowal - ... This?  The WCB has escape and detached and gone away, and the fronts still 100 mi west.  Is it "just figurative" to wonder if the warmer atmosphere has "room to spare" with surplussing?  Probably... but, this thing doesn't even have a very strong lower troposhere cyclonic expression for all that massive mid level power over the lower OV ...whirling about. Yet, the -AO precedes is supposed to = not enough cold to excite steeper baroclinic gradients ... No one is going to notice that ..it's not even "knowable" really.   Nuances?  ..maybe.

Autumn... and all the sugar maple trees felled their leafs a solid and quantifiable three weeks ahead of schedule.  Who cared to notice, right ?  ... But, counter to most people's intuitive understanding, the reason that happens - recently papered - was a surplus in growth potential met during the preceding summer.  See...there is a limit to the amount of growth potential a species can achieve, and once that is reached, ... that has been recently found to be a key trigger in 'when' chloryph. leaves and flushing begins ... It just so happens, too, that it has always better coincided with the solar and cooling timing, respectively.  Of course... Species evolved in constant solar cycle, and climate that allowed adaptation rates.  But these warming summers exceed the latter, and combining that with a C02 thickening atmosphere ... enables ( ironically) the growth potential and maples .. they were flying in a fast jet and landed early  

All the snow has melted here on any flat surfaces around this bend of Rt 2, and in fact, a goodly 2/3rd of the curb side berm mass has vanished for this warm swash event... Yet the lawns and fields exposed?       GREEN.               ... no.  Flora does not respond that quickly.  The fact is, it was never gone into dormancy in the first place.  We've just been though 10 days of neg departures, in which we laid down a foot to foot and half of snow... and had a few mornings in the single digits...  Snow melts in 6 to 12 hours... green lawns.  Who notices .. who cares.   

These are the idiosyncrasies that are "easily" explained .. thus dismissed,  ..and the explanations are even clad.  They really are... But, to the astute observer... they are still unusual, and the frequency of these 'under-the-radarisms' are increasing.  

That's how this works...  

[moneypitmike]

Pretty weird to see how green the grass is (now that the snow's gone).  I'd expect it to be brown--but mostly it's green in the neighborhood.   Is that the result of living in a lesco-kind-of-world?  Hopefully we can get some snow in the next few weeks.

[PhineasC]

12z GFS and CMC are locked in on the next cutter. Those things never waver much. Keep those blinds shut until mid-January. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

12z GFS and CMC are locked in on the next cutter. Those things never waver much. Keep those blinds shut until mid-January. 

LOL come on

[leo2000]

The Major SSW is coming hopefully it can shake things up before the Middle of the Month. As the lag is not really long after it happens. 

[Allsnow]

17 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Pretty weird to see how green the grass is (now that the snow's gone).  I'd expect it to be brown--but mostly it's green in the neighborhood.   Is that the result of living in a lesco-kind-of-world?  Hopefully we can get some snow in the next few weeks.

It’s really hasn’t been that cold for the grass to go completely dormant. The coldest air of the season mostly occurred when the grass was protected by snow cover. 

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

LOL come on

First week of January looks like garbage on all models. Sure, it can change. Maybe second week. Hope your optimism pays off. This will be a brutal week stretch however. 

[Allsnow]

Just now, leo2000 said:

The Major SSW is coming hopefully it can shake things up before the Middle of the Month. As the lag is not really long after it happens. 

If it happens the lag is about 3-4 weeks. And that will depend on if it couples and effects us 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

That pattern is more or less physically impossible.  I guess it’s simply the averaging out of the members but if you had normal heights or weak ridging like that from SEA to YUK and that sort of block in the Davis Straits you wouldn’t see long duration or stable above normal heights like that near Ohio or Virginia.  That’s probably a product of members trying to develop a deep storm over Colorado 

that's a fascinating assertion actually ... I really had not considered the weighted mean as culprit "emerging" a less than physically plausible arrangement - but yeah..

Is that possible though - can the arithmetic cause a "synergistic" results, that don't happen at the single physical scale of a singular source/guidance member (component) ?

I think it can ...  See, each ensemble member is 'perturbed' - and by that we don't mean someone is going into the grid with a spoon and giving the mixture a swoosh and then running the model like 10 year old's might think ( lol ..). It means aspects like different convection initiation and sequencing ( for example ..) or different micro physical processes ...perhaps variant assimilation techniques ... etc, are built into a given individual member ..

 ...blah blah you know this I'm not preaching at you.  It's for the general reader..

But, my point is, if a set of ensemble members is intrinsically invalid in a given pattern - or always - and is included in a mean, it's "essence" of implausibility would carry through and effect the mean - that's just basic math. Of course... but I wonder if doing so at the scale and scope of dizzying complexity that goes into these models, might cause huger fractals to emerge and synergize errors that are over the threshold of Terran geophysical likeliness... 

That's fascinating dude -