December 2020 Discussion

[Typhoon Tip]

39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We're fine...all fairly mild cases.

That's the most likely progression of inconvenience the average joe and marry will go through ... I'm assuming covid-19 ?   

Phones, PC's and televisions ... Oh My!!!! 

These are the metaphorical lions, tigers and bears of the modernity.  They are monsters in surrealism that are presently guiding the modern experience, and perception ( faux) about Nature.  It just makes me roll eyes at every turn... Look out the window ( not 'you' per se - I'm musing here) .. that is how fast "IT" is coming get you.  Everything else is inside a drama bubble created by humanity that is enabled to do so. 

There is a truth out there re the spectrum of shit that can come and harm.. of course!   But, that reality is eclipsed by the shining light of media histrionics.  C-19? It's a flu ... for most, it's inconvenient... for some it's severe... For even less, it is deadly. 

The media focus on the latter half of this, and there is an insidious(covert) ploy behind doing so.  It is a 'soft-conspiracy' when all media works toward the same greed-goal, they end up operating in cooperation though they do not actually arrange or cabal. Rather, happen to be apart of it by convention.  That's the softness ... people ( digression ) confuse this form of inadvertenty cooperation as being by functional design - but that's a different issue.  Anyway, the general media conglomerate focuses on the dread, because duh - dread sells.. So do fear and sex...etc.. .blah blah.. .we all know that...  But they are hiding their gas-lighting for ratings turned into profit intention handling of Pandemia behind a facade of virtue and responsibility, taking advantage of the psychotropic addictive aspect of media stimulation's power ... 

Hope you feel well soon, Ray.

I will tell you...  a year ago this last November...about mid month in 2019... I had a progression of symptoms that were text-book C-19 ...  This was one month before the Pandemic was officially decreed by WHO and so forth...and the CNN's out there fired up the panic mill ... I have a relative who works in the front line, and she's telling me there's evidence that predates November even ..by months - months!  I hadn't had the flu in 20 years... may it was, may it wasn't.   But I I was out in a week...  Just sayn' 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Cutterville on guidance 

Yea, I've checked out FTFF.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Cutterville on guidance 

It gets better in 2021. 

[MJO812]

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It gets better in 2021. 

Give me Dec 2007 over this crap, any year.  Take your blocks and shove 'em.

[Ginx snewx]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That's the most likely progression of inconvenience the average joe and marry will go through ... I'm assuming covid-19 ?   

Phones, PC's and televisions ... Oh My!!!! 

These are the metaphorical lions, tigers and bears of the modernity.  They are monsters in surrealism that are presently guiding the modern experience, and perception ( faux) about Nature.  It just makes me roll eyes at every turn... Look out the window ( not 'you' per se - I'm musing here) .. that is how fast "IT" is coming get you.  Everything else is inside a drama bubble created by humanity that is enabled to do so. 

There is a truth out there re the spectrum of shit that can come and harm.. of course!   But, that reality is eclipsed by the shining light of media histrionics.  C-19? It's a flu ... for most, it's inconvenient... for some it's severe... For even less, it is deadly. 

The media focus on the latter half of this, and there is an insidious(covert) ploy behind doing so.  It is a 'soft-conspiracy' when all media works toward the same greed-goal, they end up operating in cooperation though they do not actually arrange or cabal. Rather, happen to be apart of it by convention.  That's the softness ... people ( digression ) confuse this form of inadvertenty cooperation as being by functional design - but that's a different issue.  Anyway, the general media conglomerate focuses on the dread, because duh - dread sells.. So do fear and sex...etc.. .blah blah.. .we all know that...  But they are hiding their gas-lighting for ratings turned into profit intention handling of Pandemia behind a facade of virtue and responsibility, taking advantage of the psychotropic addictive aspect of media stimulation's power ... 

Hope you feel well soon, Ray.

I will tell you...  a year ago this last November...about mid month in 2019... I had a progression of symptoms that were text-book C-19 ...  This was one month before the Pandemic was officially decreed by WHO and so forth...and the CNN's out there fired up the panic mill ... I have a relative who works in the front line, and she's telling me there's evidence that predates November even ..by months - months!  I hadn't had the flu in 20 years... may it was, may it wasn't.   But I I was out in a week...  Just sayn' 

 

Being in the ICU covid ward was eye opening to me. Nasty mfer disease. The stories the nurses told me were heartbreaking. No joke. Dying all alone ugh. So many are long haulers too, with lots of symptoms they can't shake.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I've checked out FTFF.

We are setting up for a Jan 05 Feb 13 March 18 . I have total faith in thinking this. Hey maybe I am wrong but as I said patience grasshoppers 

[moneypitmike]

Shut the shades, pour some egg-nog.  The lawn thread will become active soon enough.

Merry Grinchmas.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

We are setting up for a Jan 05 Feb 13 March 18 . I have total faith in thinking this. Hey maybe I am wrong but as I said patience grasshoppers 

I just mean for the next week to ten days....I've seen enough to not care to join @MJO812 in hoping for miracles.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

Shut the shades, pour some egg-nog.  The lawn thread will become active soon enough.

Merry Grinchmas.

[Typhoon Tip]

50 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Being in the ICU covid ward was eye opening to me. Nasty mfer disease. The stories the nurses told me were heartbreaking. No joke. Dying all alone ugh. So many are long haulers too, with lots of symptoms they can't shake.

Yup - for some it is like that...

for most, it is not -

For the record,  ( not that my opinion means jack shit ...)

               ... I agree that society(s) et al should be masking and distancing, and working on 110% reactor power toward finding vaccines -

I've maintained from the get go:  why engender all this technological wherewithal and then not use it ...? we can't just sit around on our hands enjoying the spoils of it, while shit's taking lives.  That's not gon' work neither.   That's terrible macro-morality and feckless as a human culture, and if we do that...we deserve a tomb stone scribed 'opulence' in the rock for aliens to happen by and go, "looks like we got another Fermi Paradox result over here ladies and gentlemen".   It's not who we are as a species - so it is hoped...  Some are like that but let's not get into that - most aren't.

Anyway, I was just op -edding over the mechanizing for profit, and herding of the masses into profit potential ... using fear-sentiments and reactionary/incendiary rhetorical manipulation by big media as the sheep dogs.  

[SnoSki14]

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That's a lot better than whatever crap the gfs was dishing 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's a lot better than whatever crap the gfs was dishing 

CMC was somewhat similar

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's a lot better than whatever crap the gfs was dishing 

Eps shows a nice signal 

[ORH_wxman]

For the last couple of days the pattern looks a lot better after New Years. The blocking isn’t really present before that. There was a time where it looked like it may set up a little sooner, but the grinch storm took care of that. 

 

[78Blizzard]

I still think Jan 5-6 is when we get our next chance at something big, and it won't be rain.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

I still think Jan 5-6 is when we get our next chance at something big, and it won't be rain.

1996 redux ?

[Typhoon Tip]

27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

For the last couple of days the pattern looks a lot better after New Years. The blocking isn’t really present before that. There was a time where it looked like it may set up a little sooner, but the grinch storm took care of that. 

 

No argument from me ...

Not sure about the transition/timing though.  Guess that's typical.  I'm just not ever trusting or confident in the handling of NAO formats for blocking. 
 

That has never been well handled ever ... period.  at D7 ...let along 10.  It's magnitude, and placement...have disparate verification that don't even appear to be dependent on one another.  It could be -1... -3... while, west, neutral or easterly biased...  No correlation with one another, and only poorly correlated to whatever mean/guidance ensemble system is sniffing, too.  

The -AO over-arching is where I side with the "blocking" ... 

The current AO sell at the GEFs store kicks-in around NYs ... with concerted plummet thereafter.  The members run astray toward latter week 2, but for the most part stay negative.  The mean appears pretty deep though - around neg 2 or even neg 3.  That may be pulling the EPO and NAO's down more so than they are actually negative?  Something to consider, because they share domain space in partiality.  The operatoonal Euro and GFS .. thru D10 don't really look that negative up there ..they have a ridging, but it appears more subtropical in nature perhaps overlapping the lower domain lip of the NAO space.  Not a bona fide -NAO look in the D7-10 for those... That' getting into the first week of Jan so.. I do wonder if the NAO part of this proves a sore butt red herring yet again... And the AO in conjunction with oscillations in the PNAP may parlay better. 

Either way, no one's gon' give a ratz ass if it's snow off either scenario.  lol   ...it's like okay, fine make the fugger happen.

[weathafella]

2 hours ago, IowaStorm05 said:

Total Tshirt weather today.

But I was looking at the NAO and it looks favorable a week plus out! We would just need everything else to Come together 

Obviously you all are aware of that but I just needed a reason to come say hello!

Every time I see your screen name I think of the John Irving book “Hotel New Hampshire”

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

53 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Give me Dec 2007 over this crap, any year.  Take your blocks and shove 'em.

Shove this:

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Shove this:

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yup - for some it is like that...

for most, it is not -

For the record,  ( not that my opinion means jack shit ...)

               ... I agree that society(s) et al should be masking and distancing, and working on 110% reactor power toward finding vaccines -

I've maintained from the get go:  why engender all this technological wherewithal and then not use it ...? we can't just sit around on our hands enjoying the spoils of it, while shit's taking lives.  That's not gon' work neither.   That's terrible macro-morality and feckless as a human culture, and if we do that...we deserve a tomb stone scribed 'opulence' in the rock for aliens to happen by and go, "looks like we got another Fermi Paradox result over here ladies and gentlemen".   It's not who we are as a species - so it is hoped...  Some are like that but let's not get into that - most aren't.

Anyway, I was just op -edding over the mechanizing for profit, and herding of the masses into profit potential ... using fear-sentiments and reactionary/incendiary rhetorical manipulation by big media as the sheep dogs.  

Oh I agree about the hype that is MSM no doubt. 

[ScituateWX]

Weeklies?  Merry Christmas to all!

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, ScituateWX said:

Weeklies?  Merry Christmas to all!

Weeks 2 (1/4-1/11) and 3 look really good. Week 3 actually pops a nice +PNA in conjunction with the -NAO. 

The weeklies do keep the -NAO all the way into clown range (week 6) but those are hardly worth looking at. 

[Damage In Tolland]

How NYE storm look? Continue the positive trend?

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How NYE storm look? Continue the positive trend?

That has looked almost worse every run imho. I don’t expect anything out of that but there’s still some time for a change in the general synoptic look...but it better start soon. 

[PhineasC]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How NYE storm look? Continue the positive trend?

Terrible at 18z across all guidance. It better start looking better soon. Maybe after this current POS passes. 

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That has looked almost worse every run imho. I don’t expect anything out of that but there’s still some time for a change in the general synoptic look...but it better start soon. 

That is not good. Thought maybe the block would help trend south 

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Terrible at 18z across all guidance. It better start looking better soon. Maybe after this current POS passes. 

Seems like once Jan hits, all hell breaks loose 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

That is not good. Thought maybe the block would help trend south 

There really is no block. Grinch storm retros to like Baffin Island and we’re left with this weak sauce ridging south of Greenland for like a week afterward....it’s really after the New Years system that the NAO block tries to build in.