December 2020 Discussion

[HoarfrostHubb]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thanks. We're not too worried....just sucks.

Get well soon Ray.  All of you. 

[moneypitmike]

feel better, Ray et al.

[ORH_wxman]

12 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Exactly what I was thinking...too much of a good thing many times.  Be careful what we wish for. 

 

12 hours ago, dryslot said:

We don't need an uber block.

 I wonder what y’all would’ve said in Feb ‘69....or Dec 2010/first half of Jan 2011. Or March 2001. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

 I wonder what y’all would’ve said in Feb ‘69....or Dec 2010/first half of Jan 2011. Or March 2001. 

Except for ‘69...I remember the others well.  Your point is well taken Will.  Yes, the blocking can be very exciting/and interesting.  I think my point was Just not Uber/crazy like in feb ‘10, where we all sat on the sidelines, and watched the mid Atlantic(and even southern mid Atlantic) play the super bowl.   
 

But bring it, and we’ll roll the dice again with a look like that. We take. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

 I wonder what y’all would’ve said in Feb ‘69....or Dec 2010/first half of Jan 2011. Or March 2001. 

lol if Jeff ever wants a new avatar he won’t get it in a non blocky pattern...that’s for sure. 100hr storms don’t happenn in Tippy’s fast flow regimes.

[ORH_wxman]

14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Except for ‘69...I remember the others well.  Your point is well taken Will.  Yes, the blocking can be very exciting/and interesting.  I think my point was Just not Uber/crazy like in feb ‘10, where we all sat on the sidelines, and watched the mid Atlantic(and even southern mid Atlantic) play the super bowl.   
 

But bring it, and we’ll roll the dice again with a look like that. We take. 

All the blocks I listed were uber/crazy blocks. 

Point is that people should not expect the same outcomes. The 2010 PTSD in here is fascinating. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

All the blocks I listed were uber/crazy blocks. 

Point is that people should not expect the same outcomes. The 2010 PTSD in here is fascinating. 

We tried to calm the angry wolf yesterday but once he latches on, hope fades.

[DavisStraight]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

All the blocks I listed were uber/crazy blocks. 

Point is that people should not expect the same outcomes. The 2010 PTSD in here is fascinating. 

And I thnk we did well overall, just got porked on a couple storms. Ill take my chances with that again.

[Mothman]

3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Classic setup for SNE. Mega block retrograding in Greenland, Cold feed tumbling down from NW Canada. Cyclogenesis from Maryland to NJ. Slow moving deep system. Classic

NYE maybe or is that out the window now ? 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, Mothman said:

NYE maybe or is that out the window now ? 

I have a feeling that ends up being an icestorm 

[dryslot]

47 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

lol if Jeff ever wants a new avatar he won’t get it in a non blocky pattern...that’s for sure. 100hr storms don’t happenn in Tippy’s fast flow regimes.

That is the only 30”+ storm we’ve ever had, How many has there been in SNE?

[Spanks45]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I have a feeling that ends up being an icestorm 

Windstorm and no power for Christmas, icestorm and no power for New Years...why not

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I have a feeling that ends up being an icestorm 

It’s not like we going to big nye parties so as long as there are no power disruptions...ice it over before the snow comes back in Jan.

[ORH_wxman]

30 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

And I thnk we did well overall, just got porked on a couple storms. Ill take my chances with that again.

I’d roll the dice again on Feb 2010. I agree we don’t need something that extreme, but it often works out for us. 

The one worry I potentially would have is the block won’t set up far enough north. If it sets up a bit south and southwest of Greenland it can actually be a detriment. 

We want it up into Greenland and Davis Strait. 

The pacific is progged to be kind of meh in early January so a good NAO block is not a bad thing. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

That is the only 30”+ storm we’ve ever had, How many has there been in SNE?

Only one for me was Jan 96 while living in CNJ. We’ll need Will to count for SNE...there’s probably just one or two I’d imagine. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Windstorm and no power for Christmas, icestorm and no power for New Years...why not

Baby steps towards blizzards and no power?

[ORH_wxman]

18 minutes ago, Mothman said:

NYE maybe or is that out the window now ? 

Too early to rule out a big winter impact from 1/1 threat, but it’s trending the wrong direction right now. Monster western trough carves out and bides its time while the confluence lifts out. Then it decides to lift northeast perfectly timed for a big cutter. 

Its possible all that timing will not work out as we get closer and perhaps it ends up more wintry but I’m not overly optimistic at the moment. 

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’d roll the dice again on Feb 2010. I agree we don’t need something that extreme, but it often works out for us. 

The one worry I potentially would have is the block won’t set up far enough north. If it sets up a bit south and southwest of Greenland it can actually be a detriment. 

We want it up into Greenland and Davis Strait. 

The pacific is progged to be kind of meh in early January so a good NAO block is not a bad thing. 

Think this would be example of too far south.

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s not like we going to big nye parties so as long as there are no power disruptions...ice it over before the snow comes back in Jan.

It’s been trending a bit colder last few ensemble runs , the block is firmly in place then, and there’s a nice HP. I’d bet the trends continue 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Only one for me was Jan 96 while living in CNJ. We’ll need Will to count for SNE...there’s probably just one or two I’d imagine. 

Actually...could be more than 2 especially for east zones where weenie flakes hang on for dear life.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Think this would be example of too far south.

That’s not bad. Good anomalies in the Davis Strait there. If we’re nitpicking, I’d want it slightly more north, but I was more talking about if the blocking was most pronounced in the North Atlantic and closer toward New foundland. 

Thats also a D16 smoothed ensemble mean so you don’t actually see a “block” there. It just kind of hints at where it might be. 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Actually...could be more than 2 especially for east zones where weenie flakes hang on for dear life.

I think there has been a few in MA, A buddy of mine lived in Wrentham back in the early 2000’s and I remember him having at least 2 then in the 30+ range.

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

 I wonder what y’all would’ve said in Feb ‘69....or Dec 2010/first half of Jan 2011. Or March 2001. 

I was still in the early days of discovering that there was an internet-based community of weather geeks in 2011 (a wonderful find), and did not yet have the sophistication to separate the knowledgeable from the clowns. Hence, I recall Henry Margusity harping on about a -NAO (whatever that was) and putting on his "big-dog" hat. Same for Bastardi, who instead worked in weird wrestling motifs into his always-cold-and-snowy forecasts. The sting of Boxing Day and the brutal torch that followed quickly passing into elation with the novelty of a Norlun trough and then outright orgasmic delight with the monster on January 12th. I remember being baffled trying to follow along on Eastern as people threw out the latest runs of models with weird names like the DGEX, JMA, NOGAPS and CRAS, as well a curious sobriquets like "drunk Uncle" etc. But eventually I grasped the lingua franca and it's been a fun ride since.

[Hoth]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Think this would be example of too far south.

Maybe we get the 40" deform instead of Ludlow lol.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Hoth said:

Maybe we get the 40" deform instead of Ludlow lol.

Seriously. Rot and pivot. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I think there has been a few in MA, A buddy of mine lived in Wrentham back in the early 2000’s and I remember him having at least 2 then in the 30+ range.

You right. Probably a handful of them for MA

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Actually...could be more than 2 especially for east zones where weenie flakes hang on for dear life.

30” is tough for any given one spot. For ORH, there’s 3 such storms on record. If you want to count 1888, that makes 4 (they had 32” in that storm but the official records didn’t begin until 1892 there). 

BOS has zero 30” storms on record. Though they have come close on a number of them. Parts of SE MA have had several (1978, 2005, 2015).

Then you have NE MA where some spots have had a few...Feb ‘69, Dec ‘03 (in a narrow swath), Jan 2015 a little further west toward northern 495 belt. But you’d be hard pressed to find a single point that has more than 3 I’d imagine. 

Now, there’s definitely no shortage of 20”+ storms in eastern areas. Most places have double digit storms in the 20”+ range. 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You right. Probably a handful of them for MA

Even 20”+ storms are not all that common here either, 3 come to mind for me.

[CoastalWx]

I was in Dorchester in Feb ‘13 and it came darn close. That was deep. I think I had like 28.5” or so iirc but it just gets so tough when you have wind. Everything was wind blown except for a few spots, but that was a doozy there. 

[dryslot]

0z Euro cuts that storm so far west on the 1st that its basically a warm front that lifts thru here.