RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We (especially in my area) are due to regress. I don’t know exactly how it will happen, but the last two seasons have done just that. Actually 18-19 was close to avg here or a few inches better thanks to the March bomb. Last year was the first real terrible snow season since 11-12. Yea. I thought it was close to avg snowfall wise for many out east. DJF sucked. But I’m not trying to take anyone’s snow lol. I hope ESNE and the region never truly regresses over a decadal long sample sizes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 18z GFS is workable up here for the midweek storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: 18z GFS is workable up here for the midweek storm. It’s a cold front now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: 18z GFS is workable up here for the midweek storm. About 27 less inches this run . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, powderfreak said: About 27 less inches this run . That’s true but I am just trying to avoid rain and see some snow! Snow maps sill do what they do. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, qg_omega said: It’s a cold front now Better than a 55 degree cutter that drops 3 inches of rain on my head. Cold and drier with some snow showers is a workable pattern here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 GFS has shown very poor continuity over the last several cycles/days worth of runs wrt to the N. Atlantic Basin air space. I'm not sure I'm seeing a hugely better return from the Euro oper. either. I've seen standard NAOs, then go west, east ...now ( like this 18z run ) so far S based it almost argues not to be really be "in" the NAO domain space enough to really be call anything other than a ...I dunno, a f'n north-based subtropical ridge out along 50 W-40W lon.. This run actually times the N/ stream to subsume and rock New New England wrt to the Dec 29 scenario; but just keeps the phased result too progressive to really clock the region... Owing to it's instead allowing more progression overall to return to the scaffolding of the entire circulation medium. A bit more down stream backward ply/exertion on the field returning, and that would probably do it - Part of the issue with the guidance is a regime change ... they don't usually present accurate aggregate performance... and then trying to manage that, WHILE delicate phasing on a D7 chart?? mm... The AO is still falling ...tho mop-ended, it may wend its way to a -3 SD mode by D10 ...and as it descends, it's overlap domain NAO is being handled improperly and inconsistently. That is 'normal' as an issue for that domains space ( anyway ...) given to model performance and the stochastic nature therein... but, no teleconnector is usually handled exceptionally well when they're in modality - particularly that one! So the AO falling, the NAO on the move, and the PNA showing longitudinal amplitude along a narrow positive mode ... mm ... I see next week as not having an imminent threat on the guidance, but having one because of the 'synergistic' nature ... which, emergent properties, like 'gestalts,' they can't really be measured as a deterministic product. ... Although the slowing of the wave propagation around 60N, whilst the intermediate stream continues to roll west to east underneath is an inherent cyclonic framework for constructive interference. It is in the correction tendencies that is lending here- fascinating actually.. Ah heck... Probably nothing happens, everyone feels smug, and veracity of this gets muted by faux perception - ...perfect! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Every time Tip says subsume, you have to take a shot. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Looking for the next one is completely different then whining about our luck factor before it even happens. Who did that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 14 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Every time Tip says subsume, you have to take a shot. Only prayer of me breaking sobriety...lol Jk Maybe 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea. I thought it was close to avg snowfall wise for many out east. DJF sucked. But I’m not trying to take anyone’s snow lol. I hope ESNE and the region never truly regresses over a decadal long sample sizes. You just never know...it could be that the changing climate means that we aren't due as much regression as one would think. I mean...just going by that logic, we are due for about 50 years worth of frigid seasons. Lol You can't have it both ways with global warming...get used to 30" snowfalls over 12 hour intervals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You just never know...it could be that the changing climate means that we aren't due as much regression as one would think. I mean...just going by that logic, we are due for about 50 years worth of frigid seasons. Lol You can't have it both ways with global warming...get used to 30" snowfalls over 12 hour intervals. I need my first 30” first before I can get used to it lol but yes I agree. This isn’t the CC page and some get angry when it gets brought up...but I think regression happens to the extreme (warm/dry winters) but in more narrow spans. And the further the extreme it is, the more it snaps back the other way. Like a rubberband. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I need my first 30” first before I can get used to it lol but yes I agree. This isn’t the CC page and some get angry when it gets brought up...but I think regression happens to the extreme (warm/dry winters) but in more narrow spans. And the further the extreme it is, the more it snaps back the other way. Like a rubberband. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Logan measurements? Maybe. But that’s the record. Here are big 4-shit winter. BOS: 27.4 (40% below) PVD: 29.4 (20% below) BDL: 40.1 (10% below) ORH: 51.4. (30%+ below-missing some huge winters in the database) Shit winter mitigated by the big March snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 22 minutes ago, weathafella said: Maybe. But that’s the record. Here are big 4-shit winter. BOS: 27.4 (40% below) PVD: 29.4 (20% below) BDL: 40.1 (10% below) ORH: 51.4. (30%+ below-missing some huge winters in the database) Shit winter mitigated by the big March snow. I hated that winter. When it snows in mid Nov and practically not again until March, it sucks. But...let’s not act like we’re in a 5 year drought of below avg snows like it’s the 1980s. You’ve lived through some terrible stretches though I assume...so how do these past two winters stack up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Only prayer of me breaking sobriety...lol Jk Maybe That will happen when he combines subsume with Hadley Cell 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I hated that winter. When it snows in mid Nov and practically not again until March, it sucks. But...let’s not act like we’re in a 5 year drought of below avg snows like it’s the 1980s. You’ve lived through some terrible stretches though I assume...so how do these past two winters stack up? I wasn’t here for the 80s. But the first half of the 50s, 1961-62 through the end of the decade was pretty bad until February of 1969. Many years in the first half of the 70s. Then I moved to California just when it was turning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Might be a fraud 5 but ya can't deny they are special when they come in like this 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Holy shit! It appears new 30 year normal (1991-2020) for BOS is 48.7 snow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: Holy shit! It appears new 30 year normal (1991-2020) for BOS is 48.7 snow! That’s like +6” over the 1981-2010 normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 28 minutes ago, weathafella said: Holy shit! It appears new 30 year normal (1991-2020) for BOS is 48.7 snow! Not surprised I went from 55 to 62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 34 minutes ago, weathafella said: Holy shit! It appears new 30 year normal (1991-2020) for BOS is 48.7 snow! Like everything else, they can blame it on global warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Not surprised I went from 55 to 62 Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Not surprised I went from 55 to 62 We’ve been living large. I looked at BOS from 1931-1960 which and it was 9 inches lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 18 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Like everything else, they can blame it on global warming. And climo temperatures are about the same as when we were kids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, weathafella said: And climo temperatures are about the same as when we were kids. Nice! You won’t see any of that advertised anywhere though..funny how that happens? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 24 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Link? https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 22 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Nice! You won’t see any of that advertised anywhere though..funny how that happens? What we have seen is more warm records vs cold by a pretty big margin I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 That gfs para was ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, leo2000 said: That gfs para was ugly. That’s yesterday’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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