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December 2020 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We (especially in my area) are due to regress. I don’t know exactly how it will happen, but the last two seasons have done just that. Actually 18-19 was close to avg here or a few inches better thanks to the March bomb. Last year was the first real terrible snow season since 11-12. 

Yea. I thought it was close to avg snowfall wise for many out east. DJF sucked. But I’m not trying to take anyone’s snow lol. I hope ESNE and the region never truly regresses over a decadal long sample sizes. 

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GFS has shown very poor continuity over the last several cycles/days worth of runs wrt to the N. Atlantic Basin air space. I'm not sure I'm seeing a hugely better return from the Euro oper. either.

I've seen standard NAOs, then go west, east ...now ( like this 18z run ) so far S based it almost argues not to be really be "in" the NAO domain space enough to really be call anything other than a ...I dunno, a f'n north-based subtropical ridge out along 50 W-40W lon..

This run actually times the N/ stream to subsume and rock New New England wrt to the Dec 29 scenario; but just keeps the phased result too progressive to really clock the region... Owing to it's instead allowing more progression overall to return to the scaffolding of the entire circulation medium.  

A bit more down stream backward ply/exertion on the field returning, and that would probably do it -

Part of the issue with the guidance is a regime change ... they don't usually present accurate aggregate performance... and then trying to manage that, WHILE delicate phasing on a D7 chart??  mm... 

The AO is still falling ...tho mop-ended, it may wend its way to a -3 SD mode by D10 ...and as it descends, it's overlap domain NAO is being handled improperly and inconsistently. That is 'normal' as an issue for that domains space ( anyway ...) given to model performance and the stochastic nature therein... but, no teleconnector is usually handled exceptionally well when they're in modality - particularly that one!  So the AO falling, the NAO on the move, and the PNA showing longitudinal amplitude along a narrow positive mode ... mm ...
 

I see next week as not having an imminent threat on the guidance, but having one because of the 'synergistic' nature ... which, emergent properties, like 'gestalts,' they can't really be measured as a  deterministic product.  ... Although the slowing of the wave propagation around 60N, whilst the intermediate stream continues to roll west to east underneath is an inherent cyclonic framework for constructive interference.    It is in the correction tendencies that is lending here-   fascinating actually.. 

Ah heck... Probably nothing happens, everyone feels smug, and veracity of this gets muted by faux perception - ...perfect!

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. I thought it was close to avg snowfall wise for many out east. DJF sucked. But I’m not trying to take anyone’s snow lol. I hope ESNE and the region never truly regresses over a decadal long sample sizes. 

You just never know...it could be that the changing climate means that we aren't due as much regression as one would think.  I mean...just going by that logic, we are due for about 50 years worth of frigid seasons. Lol

You can't have it both ways with global warming...get used to 30" snowfalls over 12 hour intervals.

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27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You just never know...it could be that the changing climate means that we aren't due as much regression as one would think.  I mean...just going by that logic, we are due for about 50 years worth of frigid seasons. Lol

You can't have it both ways with global warming...get used to 30" snowfalls over 12 hour intervals.

I need my first 30” first before I can get used to it lol but yes I agree. This isn’t the CC page and some get angry when it gets brought up...but I think regression happens to the extreme (warm/dry winters) but in more narrow spans. And the further the extreme it is, the more it snaps back the other way. Like a rubberband. 

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5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I need my first 30” first before I can get used to it lol but yes I agree. This isn’t the CC page and some get angry when it gets brought up...but I think regression happens to the extreme (warm/dry winters) but in more narrow spans. And the further the extreme it is, the more it snaps back the other way. Like a rubberband. 

Yes.

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2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Logan measurements?

Maybe.  But that’s the record.  Here are big 4-shit winter.

BOS:  27.4 (40% below)

PVD: 29.4 (20% below)

BDL: 40.1 (10% below)

ORH: 51.4. (30%+ below-missing some huge winters in the database)

Shit winter mitigated by the big March snow.

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22 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Maybe.  But that’s the record.  Here are big 4-shit winter.

BOS:  27.4 (40% below)

PVD: 29.4 (20% below)

BDL: 40.1 (10% below)

ORH: 51.4. (30%+ below-missing some huge winters in the database)

Shit winter mitigated by the big March snow.

I hated that winter. When it snows in mid Nov and practically not again until March, it sucks. But...let’s not act like we’re in a 5 year drought of below avg snows like it’s the 1980s. You’ve lived through some terrible stretches though I assume...so how do these past two winters stack up?

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13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I hated that winter. When it snows in mid Nov and practically not again until March, it sucks. But...let’s not act like we’re in a 5 year drought of below avg snows like it’s the 1980s. You’ve lived through some terrible stretches though I assume...so how do these past two winters stack up?

I wasn’t here for the 80s. But the first half of the 50s, 1961-62 through the end of the decade was pretty bad until February of 1969.  Many years in the first half of the 70s.   Then I moved to California just when it was turning.

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