Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 I think you're all missing the boat on next week personally - never seen such wanton disregard for common/ -textbook theoretic correction needs considering what's going on - but,.. I also think there some good old fashion down home pissed off bad mood controlling the "objective" perspective in here today LOL Yah... 'support group' in full affect - Next week may not parlay ... and of course the "seeeee" parade ...but you'd be wrong - or, right for the wrong reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 I don't see anything imminent in terms of big winter appeal next week, but I wouldn't discount it, either. TBD https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/12/volatility-reigns-supreme-through.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I think you're all missing the boat on next week personally - never seen such wanton disregard for common/ -textbook theoretic correction needs considering what's going on - but,.. I also think there some good old fashion down home pissed off bad mood controlling the "objective" perspective in here today LOL Yah... 'support group' in full affect - Next week may not parlay ... and of course the "seeeee" parade ...but you'd be wrong - or, right for the wrong reason. Pope? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Not a computer issue?Could be. Wanted to start with the basics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 hour ago, Lava Rock said: Got my wife's ACE 600 in pieces trying to see why it's idling rough, stalling and not running on both cylinders. Pulled the tank and will inspect the fuel line/filter then move onto the fuel pump. Plugs look good. No hurry to get it fixed, but surprisingly some of our local trails are actually pretty decent right now. That's what my wife and son have. I may actually take tomorrow off and trailer south to the big snows and where some grooming has happened the last few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I think you're all missing the boat on next week personally - never seen such wanton disregard for common/ -textbook theoretic correction needs considering what's going on - but,.. I also think there some good old fashion down home pissed off bad mood controlling the "objective" perspective in here today LOL Yah... 'support group' in full affect - Next week may not parlay ... and of course the "seeeee" parade ...but you'd be wrong - or, right for the wrong reason. I don't see any overwhelming signal amongst the various ensemble clusters....but anytime you have high latitude blocking, things need to be watched. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Delayed not denied perfectly explained by Isotherm. He too believes our chances will likely wait until early January. Initial block is too south but eventually adjusts to a favorable position while the pacific improves in tandem. Looks like PV takes a significant hit in early Jan too. I'd be shocked if there wasn't a major snow event in the Jan 1-10th period for coastal regions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 31 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I think you're all missing the boat on next week personally - never seen such wanton disregard for common/ -textbook theoretic correction needs considering what's going on - but,.. I also think there some good old fashion down home pissed off bad mood controlling the "objective" perspective in here today LOL Yah... 'support group' in full affect - Next week may not parlay ... and of course the "seeeee" parade ...but you'd be wrong - or, right for the wrong reason. Tip are you this week's Pope? At least you'll stay in the thread... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Pope? lol just saw this after I commented same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Delayed not denied perfectly explained by Isotherm. He too believes our chances will likely wait until early January. Initial block is too south but eventually adjusts to a favorable position while the pacific improves in tandem. Def. Agree with the block initially being south of optimal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Pope? He’s been stuck in purgatory since Dec 14th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I just mean I'm not sold that this high latitude blocking doesn't have an end point. Doesn't have to mean a record +AO because I agree that is not happening again this year. The blocking gets pretty extreme one some of the guidance later next week and into early January....that probably has at least some staying power. (fwiw....and I know it's not much....but the weeklies keep the -NAO blocking right through late January...finally breaking it down at the end of the month) We'll see though....sure beats having a death vortex over Greenland/Davis Strait 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The blocking gets pretty extreme one some of the guidance later next week and into early January....that probably has at least some staying power. (fwiw....and I know it's not much....but the weeklies keep the -NAO blocking right through late January...finally breaking it down at the end of the month) We'll see though....sure beats having a death vortex over Greenland/Davis Strait If there is ever a time to have blocking with a marginal/stale airmass...it’s Jan. Something could break right and if it does, congrats @Ginx snewx for 10/11 type call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: The blocking gets pretty extreme one some of the guidance later next week and into early January....that probably has at least some staying power. (fwiw....and I know it's not much....but the weeklies keep the -NAO blocking right through late January...finally breaking it down at the end of the month) We'll see though....sure beats having a death vortex over Greenland/Davis Strait With our luck that extreme blocking will probably lead to whiffs when our opportunity opens up, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, 78Blizzard said: With our luck that extreme blocking will probably lead to whiffs when our opportunity opens up, lol. SNE, specifically ESNE has been hit with the proverbial rabbits foot since 2000. Let’s not let one crappy winter and one avg winter cloud the perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 hour ago, Lava Rock said: Was surprise at your position on the table. maybe we should have a rainfall table instead. The sig tells the tale. Even Sunday night's little event was even littler, with its 0.8" in the "Small events" basket. Your 3 snows totaling 23.5" were 8.7" here. Missed the good bands for the 2 biggies - Dec 5th was elevational this far north, 11.5" at 1220' in Temple, 18" at 1300' in Carrabassett Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The blocking gets pretty extreme one some of the guidance later next week and into early January....that probably has at least some staying power. (fwiw....and I know it's not much....but the weeklies keep the -NAO blocking right through late January...finally breaking it down at the end of the month) We'll see though....sure beats having a death vortex over Greenland/Davis Strait I could see it lasting deep into January, but I'd be stunned if were not vanquished entirely by February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 23 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: SNE, specifically ESNE has been hit with the proverbial rabbits foot since 2000. Let’s not let one crappy winter and one avg winter cloud the perspective. 2 shit winters. Nothing average about 2 years ago. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 33 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: SNE, specifically ESNE has been hit with the proverbial rabbits foot since 2000. Let’s not let one crappy winter and one avg winter cloud the perspective. I hate to break this to you, Luke, but E NE will always be more prone to high end events than you are....that's climo when you stick out into the ocean. To that end, NE MA doesn't have as much regression due as se MA....not by a long shot. I think I am like high 60s over the past 30...which is like 6" above avg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 We Walt 37 minutes ago, wdrag said: 12Z/22 EPS and GEFS for you to decide. Just so you know the NAEFS continues colder and suggests a light to moderate snowfall for I84. I don't have time for all the graphics but here's the difference between the 12z/22 EPS and GEFS. Your call and you are welcome to professionally critique here any possible flaw-bias in my thinking. Right now, all options are on the board. I am doubtful of a big windup low in the Great Lakes on the 28th. Instead a weaker low, near L Erie with redevelopment s of LI, then a merger into a deepening low near the New England Coast on the afternoon of the 29th. If I am wrong, it will have been over reliance on the NAEFS 52 member ensemble vs the generally more highly regarded EPS , vs the sometimes maligned GEFS. I'd like another 00z/23 cycle to show me that I've incorrectly relied upon a GGEM-GFS ensemble blend. Blocking i realize is good but not ideal. Again, you decide what is best in your own mind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: 2 shit winters. Nothing average about 2 years ago. Snowfall 2 winters ago ended around average or just below even if all of it came in Nov and Mar. It was a shit winter in my eyes but snow is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I hate to break this to you, Luke, but E NE will always be more prone to high end events than you are....that's climo when you stick out into the ocean. To that end, NE MA doesn't have as much regression due as se ME....not by a long shot. I think I an like high 60s over the past 30...which is like 6" above avg. Right but let’s not act like “with our luck this will miss.” That’s like being a Boston sports fan and saying, “with our luck...we’ll lose.” Stop the whining. In general, our region has done very well in winters this century, really. To say otherwise is having a short sighted ‘woah cry for me’ mentality. Peeps are spoiled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 8 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Looks Like Wiz. A little late on the response here--but that's way too stocky for Wiz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 And I don’t mean to pick on 78blizz, I’m not. But when I hear NewEng peeps esp those who got the historic 15 season thinking they are ‘unlucky’ with snow...it’s a bit nauseating. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Right but let’s not act like “with our luck this will miss.” That’s like being a Boston sports fan and saying, “with our luck...we’ll lose.” Stop the whining. In general, our region has done very well in winters this century, really. To say otherwise is having a short sighted ‘woah cry for me’ mentality. Peeps are spoiled. Everyone is always looking for the next one. If you find that nauseating, then this probably isn't the place for you lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: And I don’t mean to pick on 78blizz, I’m not. But when I hear NewEng peeps esp those who got the historic 15 season thinking they are ‘unlucky’ with snow...it’s a bit nauseating. We (especially in my area) are due to regress. I don’t know exactly how it will happen, but the last two seasons have done just that. Actually 18-19 was close to avg here or a few inches better thanks to the March bomb. Last year was the first real terrible snow season since 11-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Snowfall 2 winters ago ended around average or just below even if all of it came in Nov and Mar. It was a shit winter in my eyes but snow is snow. BOS was 30% below average. It’s not debatable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Everyone is always looking for the next one. If you find that nauseating, then this probably isn't the place for you lol Looking for the next one is completely different then whining about our luck factor before it even happens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 29 minutes ago, weathafella said: BOS was 30% below average. It’s not debatable Logan measurements? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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