Great Snow 1717 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: When we are 2-3 Rainers deep by New Years (which we will be) the melts should be absolutely epic. It's why it's best to have low expectations heading into the winter season during the era of climate change 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: When we are 2-3 Rainers deep by New Years (which we will be) the melts should be absolutely epic. Nah. Nothing left to melt at that point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said: I will run naked on the Merritt Parkway from Westport to Trumbull if this verifies: Now let’s do a map where the entire world gets snow except for E Mass 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 30 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Lol...and that was my point a couple days back. Not really sure what you guys are talking about. December 30-Jan 3 looking really good. You’re all just focused on the post Xmas clipper with crap airmass but whatever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Looks Like Wiz. Back in his 40 oz malt liquor days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Very convoluted set up...nothing is even remotely correct at this point imo. But as we know when there’s a lot to figure out...best go with the least snowy scenario’s, cuz more times then not, that’s the way it shakes out. But perhaps we’ll be pleasantly surprised..? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 14 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Not really sure what you guys are talking about. December 30-Jan 3 looking really good. You’re all just focused on the post Xmas clipper with crap airmass but whatever I agree, need to look beyond next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 16 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Not really sure what you guys are talking about. December 30-Jan 3 looking really good. You’re all just focused on the post Xmas clipper with crap airmass but whatever That is our next best chance ( area wide) The 29th storm looks good for interior New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 12/29 looks pretty crappy....but can't rule out interior snows. A lot will depend on how the deepening Xmas storm behaves to our northeast as that is the source of any confluence....if it lifts N easily or retrogrades too far W, then it's probably no dice for snows in SNE and maybe even CNE/eastern NNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Very convoluted set up...nothing is even remotely correct at this point imo. But as we know when there’s a lot to figure out...best go with the least snowy scenario’s, cuz more times then not, that’s the way it shakes out. But perhaps we’ll be pleasantly surprised..? So many waves for the models to handle correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Let’s see if it actually produces? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: Lol...and that was my point a couple days back. lol. Nobody thought differently. You’re not the only one thinking d7-d10 storms are fantasy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 hour ago, SnowEMass said: Now let’s do a map where the entire world gets snow except for E Mass That would normalize things...yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Let’s see if it actually produces? You dont think anything will produce coming up ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Folks need to 'modulate' for/beyond what the models actually show in hard illustration. What needs and 'can' happen in order for that Dec 29+ situation to be a meaningfully impacting winter complexion is not just within possibility, it is imho favored - sorry... Whether that is Chicago, here...or up toward the Maritime it doesn't/won't change the lead indicators... This is a fast/stretched positive PNA inserting S/intermediate stream S/W procession up underneath a ubiquitously slowed/block tendency in the 55 to 70 N hemisphere. Until that changes, neg head takes are about as useful and dependable as D9 Euro bombs on Cape May. Just my take on things. For winter enthusiasts this is an optimistic period...post Xmas through the first week of January - not changing my position on that and in fact the GEFs derivatives from overnight if anything sweetened the deal... This is wintry profiled mass field bias folks ... your correction vector is not pointing toward grousing ( lol ..) you get my meaning though. Prticularly N of L.I. latitude, and relative to a day 7 lead, that Dec 29th+ could become a historic blizzard and it would not take more than 'giga' motions to get there. Would I forecast that now at this moment? Hell no - but we are simply a model cycle at any point from drooling. Just imho - Caveats...? Sure. ... the EPS was not impressive at 00z to me, showing a definitive trend back into a more progressive wave translation/spacial evolution along the 35th to 50th band from mid Pac to ~ 100 W. That is admittedly not going in the right direction. But, I don't believe that is the whole novel ... and the event potential has chapters going into January. And the obvious ... the mean can wobble and vacillate too - Pro: I still see that the 55 to 70N latitudes have slowed relative to the intermediate polar jet latitudes running underneath at the Hemispheric scope. Yeeeah, we can say that's just the -AO but I'm not so sure the philosophy is true in all cases. Not all modes do this. The mass-fields can split the domain such that (say..) Eurasia/Siberia present the ballast positive(negative) ... making the index more notable in quadrature, and the modulation on the pattern may not reflect as well on this(that) side of the umbrella. This appears to be more systemically oriented ...whole scale, and it is providing a "synergistic" emergence for favoring positive feed-back wave interference between the lower Ferral and polar ambient jet latitudes. That's why we are seeing a propensity in the mid and extended deterministic guidance to do this ...whether it happens or not/meets with verification, but I'm seeing this everywhere, where these N/stream SPV fragments are more commonly inducing a S motion into the back sides of interloping S/stream wave spaces out there in guidance et al... Con: A "harmonic" hemisphere is something/aspect we have been having trouble with in recent years, so notwithstanding .. this appeal is bit of a persistence break as another caveat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 39 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: lol. Nobody thought differently. You’re not the only one thinking d7-d10 storms are fantasy. Luke, I never said that others don’t think d7-10 storms are fantasy. My point was very well illustrated when the woof went to pass. And All I meant was that the hype of “woof” was a lil much imo, considering the lead time. If others think otherwise, that’s cool too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 40 minutes ago, MJO812 said: You dont think anything will produce coming up ? I honestly don’t know? There’s definitely potential. But it wouldn’t surprise me if it doesn’t either. I’ve/we’ve seen it before. I hope it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 One thing about shoveling potential, It's very light, Like air actually. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Seems like the 29th is looking more like an arc of rain and not much else. Pretty weak sauce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 PF/Phin would approve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Seems like the 29th is looking more like an arc of rain and not much else. Pretty weak sauce. Need more confluence to north....Xmas storm becomes too wrapped up and retrogrades which doesn't help. Grinch storm gives us two Christmas presents..... Euro/Ukie did look a little more favorable so we'll see if they try and produce at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 GEFS look favorable for Monday/ Tuesday. Op tossed as usual 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: When we are 2-3 Rainers deep by New Years (which we will be) the melts should be absolutely epic. Just another thing to add to the list for our F*** 2020 parties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: GEFS look favorable for Monday/ Tuesday. Op tossed as usual Hitting the spiked eggnog early? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: GEFS look favorable for Monday/ Tuesday. Op tossed as usual They aren;t out that far yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: They aren;t out that far yet. I meant the ones earlier this AM that Walt discussed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 12z GFS looks OK for up here. I think it would work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: March, or whenever the retrograde deal was For eastern NNE, the 2010 retro that ate winter came in early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I meant the ones earlier this AM that Walt discussed Looks meh now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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