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December 2020 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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16 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Not really sure what you guys are talking about. December 30-Jan 3 looking really good. You’re all just focused on the post Xmas clipper with crap airmass but whatever

That is our next best chance ( area wide)

The 29th storm looks good for interior New England.

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12/29 looks pretty crappy....but can't rule out interior snows. A lot will depend on how the deepening Xmas storm behaves to our northeast as that is the source of any confluence....if it lifts N easily or retrogrades too far W, then it's probably no dice for snows in SNE and maybe even CNE/eastern NNE.

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7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Very convoluted set up...nothing is even remotely correct at this point imo.  But as we know when there’s a lot to figure out...best go with the least snowy scenario’s, cuz more times then not, that’s the way it shakes out.  
 

But perhaps we’ll be pleasantly surprised..? 

So many waves for the models to handle correctly

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Folks need to 'modulate' for/beyond what the models actually show in hard illustration. 

What needs and 'can' happen in order for that Dec 29+ situation to be a meaningfully impacting winter complexion is not just within possibility, it is imho favored - sorry... 

Whether that is Chicago, here...or up toward the Maritime it doesn't/won't change the lead indicators... This is a fast/stretched positive PNA inserting S/intermediate stream S/W procession up underneath a ubiquitously slowed/block tendency in the 55 to 70 N hemisphere.  Until that changes, neg head takes are about as useful and dependable as D9 Euro bombs on Cape May.  Just my take on things.

For winter enthusiasts this is an optimistic period...post Xmas through the first week of January - not changing my position on that and in fact the GEFs derivatives from overnight if anything sweetened the deal...  This is wintry profiled mass field bias folks ... your correction vector is not pointing toward grousing ( lol ..) you get my meaning though. Prticularly N of L.I. latitude, and relative to a day 7 lead, that Dec 29th+ could become a historic blizzard and it would not take more than 'giga' motions to get there.   Would I forecast that now at this moment?  Hell no - but we are simply a model cycle at any point from drooling.

Just imho -

Caveats...? Sure.  ... the EPS was not impressive at 00z to me, showing a definitive trend back into a more progressive wave translation/spacial evolution along the 35th to 50th band from mid Pac to ~ 100 W.  That is admittedly not going in the right direction.  But, I don't believe that is the whole novel ... and the event potential has chapters going into January.  And the obvious ... the mean can wobble and vacillate too -

Pro:  I still see that the 55 to 70N latitudes have slowed relative to the intermediate polar jet latitudes running underneath at the Hemispheric scope.  Yeeeah, we can say that's just the -AO but I'm not so sure the philosophy is true in all cases. Not all modes do this. The mass-fields can split the domain such that (say..) Eurasia/Siberia present the ballast positive(negative) ... making the index more notable in quadrature, and the modulation on the pattern may not reflect as well on this(that) side of the umbrella.  This appears to be more systemically oriented ...whole scale, and it is providing a "synergistic"  emergence for favoring positive feed-back wave interference between the lower Ferral and polar ambient jet latitudes. That's why we are seeing a propensity in the mid and extended deterministic guidance to do this ...whether it happens or not/meets with verification, but I'm seeing this everywhere, where these N/stream SPV fragments are more commonly inducing a S motion into the back sides of interloping S/stream wave spaces out there in guidance et al... 

Con: A "harmonic" hemisphere is something/aspect we have been having trouble with in recent years, so notwithstanding .. this appeal is bit of a persistence break as another caveat. 

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39 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

lol. Nobody thought differently. You’re not the only one thinking d7-d10 storms are fantasy.

Luke, I never said that others don’t think d7-10 storms are fantasy. 
 

My point was very well illustrated when the woof went to pass.  
 

And All I meant was that the hype of “woof” was a lil much imo, considering the lead time.  If others think otherwise, that’s cool too. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Seems like the 29th is looking more like an arc of rain and not much else. Pretty weak sauce.

Need more confluence to north....Xmas storm becomes too wrapped up and retrogrades which doesn't help. Grinch storm gives us two Christmas presents.....

Euro/Ukie did look a little more favorable so we'll see if they try and produce at 12z.

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