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December 2020 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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You’re actually more apt to find that kind of a solution in the spring… Cold air masses modify faster when you get into March for obvious reasons such that the mid-level’s will come down and if you get into one of these phasic atmospheres they tend to run into that predicament where all the cold on the backside coming down with the northern stream

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GFS simply doesn’t phase anything. It just has an intermediate stream S/W there ...but also running thru a rotted antecedent air mass ...

Whether the air mass is cold or not aside ... Not surprising the GFS is having difficulty in a phasing scenario at this time range given to its typical biases

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That’s not retrograding… phased solutions tend to move slow but that things motion is going to slowly move east northeast into the Atlantic if CMC…

But none of these solutions are etched in stone obviously

Yeah I just was looking at H5. Thought it did. Regardless these March like closed ULLs are my favorite type of system. I hope it verifies. I’ll chase if i have to ;)

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Ha ha ha oh my god that run is hilarious!… that solution would f’n send a storm induced tidal bore up the Charles river and denude all costal communities right of the face of the planet lol

2000 naut mi of 50 kt sea surface stressing probable sends an order of mag more ISE right into coast then Cat 4 cane, while LA Basin seismograph grad students aren’t sure what their looking at

Just Gotta make sure the perfunctory spring tide which always seems to auto magically time on top of those suckers is in play and we’re in business

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25 minutes ago, wdrag said:

My once/day update to allow the models to be variable eventually coming to a consensus on both coming events. I've seen a few posts and agree.  

29th: I don't think LI/NYC I80 south can get much if any snow out of the event late 28th and 29th. I think snowfall, whatever it is, is restricted to the I84 corridor with the se edge maybe 20 miles south of I84.  How much, yet to be determined but a WET sticky snowfall seems more probable than a crystalline cold. I've added the 00z/22 NAEFS which shows a low in the eastern Great Lakes with a receded High over Nova Scotia, which eventually has a secondary s of LI merge and potentially rapidly deepen near Cape Cod on the 29th (00z/22 GEFS is interesting on the negative tilt eased deepening of the 500MB trough toward CC). The 0C sfc temp is near I84 to  late on the 28th (last image) while the 1000-500MB thickness at 00z/29 (first image) is surprisingly cool. So that is my reasoning to keep faithful to an I84 3+" event with much less chance of snow this storm for NYC.  Thinking could change in the future but for now, since models are all over the place, it is probably smart to choose a wetter scenario for NYC and not overpromise there. 

NY Day may be another story... I think snow is in the mix and to me it looks to be a better chance of some sort of lead WAA snow thump, before a possible change to rain for our forum. Just tooo far in advance for me to offer anything else, confidently. 558A/22

 

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Wil, Walt says there’s a chance. I could certainly envision rain changing to a thumping wet snow 

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Always good to be cautious.  I like the overall opportunities but how much is realized in snow... the 50-50 block (LOW!) is most important. I don't see that yet but overall the anomalously strong and long duration (still next 14 daYS+) + 500 MB anomaly near the Davis Dtarit is a positive for snow options.  I've added some minor WPC support with a D7 graphic for >1/4" frozen W.E.  The darker green 30-49% chance.  I like these graphics, but in clear cut event, they are very conservative.  This one is not yet clear cut, so I can ride with it, EXCEPT as you can see from the issue time of 0455z/22... it is BEFORE the 00z/22 ensembles are seen (at least publicly).  My guess this has to do with the shift hours.  So, you're seeing later ensemble guidance from whatever resources and judge accordingly.

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7 hours ago, RobertSul said:

The sun angle tomorrow will be just as terrible as it was back on December 19th. And don’t get me started on those awful February sunburns.

We've got a solid 4 weeks before Tip starts posting about how hot his car is getting when he's parked in the sun.

Meanwhile, Kevin can start cleaning his yard next week.  Your spring Lesco treatment is right around the corner.

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