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December 2020 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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Boston is still running close to 3x the 30-year average for snow totals for the date. That's not really sustainable for the long-term, since you won't get 120+ inches of snow this Oct-May. Question is whether there is an extended quiet period or you just slowly move back toward average with relatively normal totals from here on, say, 30-40 inches from 12/22-5/31. My hunch with this year has always been that each region of the US would see 2-3 big storms and a bunch of little storms. I don't have data to back that up, it's just my sense of things. You've arguably had two in the Northeast - the big Nor'easters in Oct/Dec, two in the Rockies - the Sept/Oct storms, one in the Midwest - the late Nov storm. 

If you look at what the models forecast for December, it's pretty clear the Canadian at least had some idea of what was going to happen. A +WPO, +PNA, -AO, -NAO December looks like this, but of course even in the south a lot of areas are now running a bit above average, and it's actually been fairly cold out here. Something like ~30th coldest December 1-21 high so far in 100 years, even after a few relatively warm days recently. 

WPO-PNA-AO-NAO-December

It's kind of amazing how much warmer the look is compared to the composite, and it seems like that's the main issue with the seasonal models. They aren't bad at identifying the 'looks' up above.

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1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Methuen probably just inland enough to score. I’d rather be further N&W though. Of course, when something pops, it could always be timed well with a cold shot that leads to a CJ in Weymouth. 

I think I'll be fine....its not a cj pattern. Last one was.

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2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Yup, today this shortest day of the year, and winter  barely 12 hrs old.   Lmao. 

The sun angle tomorrow will be just as terrible as it was back on December 19th. And don’t get me started on those awful February sunburns.

  • Haha 2
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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I love of how the guy who calls all signs of blocking for the past 8 years "voodoo", then once we finally get it it....."too blocky"....lol

LOL I’m just saying it’s possible you get this to wrap up without a stronger antecedent airmass. Also on the gfs, it’s not a west based block, but more into southern Greenland. A west based block allows more of a chance for this to go underneath SNE. 

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