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December 2020 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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I don't know if the GFS ... GEFs are the right personnel for the extended range job in this case.

They carry on with progressive bias most of the time.  Sometimes it is only nuanced in the 'feel' of their handling. Else, they are outright coherently obviously annoying - that is particularly true with the operational version.

As I demoed yesterday, ...we may be on the verge - post Xmas - of an aspect we have not seen in frankly years!  That is, a slowing of the W to E propagation of wave spaces at/or/about the 60 to 70th parallels of the N.H. ... whilst the S ( mainly below the 40th ) remains quasi progressive.   That achieves two aspects, actually...

1)  it pulls the rug out from under the GFS' enabling ... One wonders if we see a worse-off verification tendencies as we get on in time with that period and look forward ...until such time as whole-scale hemispheric progressivity bias resumes... etc.

2) it may not "see" the phasing potential - ...yet, as I type this, the 12z version comes out and subsumes /phases ...not actually too dissimilar what the Euro's cinema gave us on the 12z run yesterday ... It may also be that this is one of those signals, that transcends. ..interesting...

I had previewed the post Xmas favorable pattern with this annotation, just to give an example of this expressing in the runs: 

78analogB.jpg.0797c27627ad80c91690970176350ff8.jpg

... At the time I was using the Euro to step -wise take the reader thru a perceived analog, ...not intending it to be a formulaic outlook; I'm half thinking to fire up that thread, though. Perhaps head it off with this discourse, because this learning tool does couch in it storm system - I probably should have the ballz to come out and say that...

This is rooted in other aspects supporting.  The strengthening negative AO phase is almost getting out of hand at CPC ( lol ) ... with a mean nearing -3 SD; although mop-ended ...every member stays negative toward and thru week two, with a few errant ( so it seems?) members unlikely to -4 SD!

Meanwhile, the PNA teleconnector failed to go negative even by a little, last week.  It stayed positive, and over the next ten days to two weeks -worth of outlook at CPC, it oscillates to relative values above 0 SD ... This creates an implied cyclonic motion ( in the relative sense ...) in the mid latitudes that is synergistic favoring constructive wave interference scenarios.  You have to think of in outre form, as gestalt - and that there is a virtual positive (negative) for cyclonic (anticyclonic) tendency.  Now ... positive.  Atmospheric events in real space and time passing thru ...will "tend" to manifest positive (cyclonic) interference. It's not just true here... Europe/Erasi and the WPC all probably have this favorable look. 

 

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51 minutes ago, Mothman said:

Yes!!! Not what it used to be , but still on old 17. I worked there a few summers. 

I remember driving to Ithaca from NJ.  Pull off onto old 17 and there it was!   However we often bypassed it having stopped at this deli in Monticello-can’t remember the name but it also was famous.  This was in the late 1960s.

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11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I remember driving to Ithaca from NJ.  Pull off onto old 17 and there it was!   However we often bypassed it having stopped at this deli in Monticello-can’t remember the name but it also was famous.  This was in the late 1960s.

My dad's name for 17 was butcher boulevard - probably has been used for many roads.  Couple years ago my son-in-law's cellphone lady put us on that road while driving from SNJ to Cornwall, NY - may be shorter, or quicker if no one else is on the road, but - yuck.  Coming home late that evening I said "No thanks" to the lady and did my usual GSP/Turnpike route, about 30 minutes less time. 

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1 hour ago, tamarack said:

My dad's name for 17 was butcher boulevard - probably has been used for many roads.  Couple years ago my son-in-law's cellphone lady put us on that road while driving from SNJ to Cornwall, NY - may be shorter, or quicker if no one else is on the road, but - yuck.  Coming home late that evening I said "No thanks" to the lady and did my usual GSP/Turnpike route, about 30 minutes less time. 

With good lighting and good roads!   

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35 minutes ago, weathafella said:

With good lighting and good roads!   

That's not the same Rt. 17. The one you are referring to is a County road that runs N/S parallel to the NYS Thruway from the NJ border to Harriman. There, the highway portion of Rt 17 (now becoming Interstate 86) which runs  E/W begins and goes all the way out through the Southern tier of NY towards Lake Erie. I actually live in Cornwall. 

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1 hour ago, Jeff Grann said:

That's not the same Rt. 17. The one you are referring to is a County road that runs N/S parallel to the NYS Thruway from the NJ border to Harriman. There, the highway portion of Rt 17 (now becoming Interstate 86) which runs  E/W begins and goes all the way out through the Southern tier of NY towards Lake Erie. I actually live in Cornwall. 

It’s the same road.   I took it many times until hitting 96 in Owego.  It just was 2/3 back country like in those days.  Now it’s part of the interstate system 

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2 hours ago, weathafella said:

I remember driving to Ithaca from NJ.  Pull off onto old 17 and there it was!   However we often bypassed it having stopped at this deli in Monticello-can’t remember the name but it also was famous.  This was in the late 1960s.

I went to High School in Monticello. You're making me feel familiar. My twin brother and dad went to Cornell, i love that town. SNOWY PLACE!

 

Monticello... I wonder where it was...I bet it was Kaplan's, the old jewish deli that closed before I was born. That's so darn cool! That spot is classic ...kaplans.jpg?fit=1100,699&ssl=1

 

 

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29 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It’s the same road.   I took it many times until hitting 96 in Oswego.  It just was 2/3 back country like in those days.  Now it’s part of the interstate system 

I often fantasize about Old 17 being the only way up ... simpler times

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25 minutes ago, Mothman said:

I went to High School in Monticello. You're making me feel familiar. My twin brother and dad went to Cornell, i love that town. SNOWY PLACE!

 

Monticello... I wonder where it was...I bet it was Kaplan's, the old jewish deli that closed before I was born. That's so darn cool! That spot is classic ...kaplans.jpg?fit=1100,699&ssl=1

 

 

That’s it!

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