December 2020 Discussion

[dryslot]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Looks better 

Better then it has been, We will start to get some decent chances at more wintry precip.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's not physically impossible...its happening because the heights are closing off on the heels of Pac jet dominant pattern. I feel like you employ global warming, Hadley cell expansion, or some other derivative there of far too liberally. Fact of the matter is that early Dec is still pretty hostile snow climo for much of SNE,and there isn't much margin for error. That has always been the case.

This isn't Meteorologically sound as reasoning - bold

a,

b, ...you should not "feel" anyting when one admits to an op -ed post...  

c,  ... you are wrong if don't think HC is having a direct impact of disrupting/modulating previous climate signals - to wit the ENSO cycles is a part.

Sorry - I know what I am talking about.  

[Ginx snewx]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This isn't Meteorologically sound as reasoning - bold

a,

b, ...you should not "feel" anyting when one admits to an op -ed post...  

c,  ... you are wrong if don't think HC is having a direct impact of disrupting/modulating previous climate signals - to wit the ENSO cycles is a part.

Sorry - I know what I am talking about.  

Link to sub 520 heights and rain to begin with.i don't see anything unusual with either storm. Once the 2nd ULL pinwheels in we are left with some instability showers.  I don't follow your point at all

[PhineasC]

I don’t think globular worming has anything to do with it not snowing when a low goes over your head or just west of you. This is Weenie 101 stuff. 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

I don’t think globular worming has anything to do with it not snowing when a low goes over your head or just west of you. This is Weenie 101 stuff. 

I think it definitely has something to do with the overall crap pattern the last few years and no -AO/NAO since 2011 though.

[Damage In Tolland]

Damage is coming twice 

[Ginx snewx]

If Tip is talking about the GFS I agree that's dynamic driven snow. Euro is different 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

We got Ray/ Tip on the under card of Tyson/ Jones tonite 

Those are some looooow heights late next week on gfs 

[powderfreak]

24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Link to sub 520 heights and rain to begin with.i don't see anything unusual with either storm. Once the 2nd ULL pinwheels in we are left with some instability showers.  I don't follow your point at all

I don't really get it either, that track seems like it's rain in early December anyway you slice it.  I'm not sure having the antecedent air mass -0.5C colder would matter.  Hard to argue AGW moving the needle that much with H85 temps of +3C or even more.

[powderfreak]

Though all things considered.... not often you see a prog of a 959mb low just north of KRUT.  Guess it does cool pretty decently from the +3C to +9C 850s in the beginning.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I don't really get it either, that track seems like it's rain in early December anyway you slice it.  I'm not sure having the antecedent air mass -0.5C colder would matter.  Hard to argue AGW moving the needle that much with H85 temps of +3C or even more.

18Z is a different animal 

[Go Kart Mozart]

That GFS depiction is concerning....oh wait, Eversource will be on it!

[40/70 Benchmark]

58 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This isn't Meteorologically sound as reasoning - bold

a,

b, ...you should not "feel" anyting when one admits to an op -ed post...  

c,  ... you are wrong if don't think HC is having a direct impact of disrupting/modulating previous climate signals - to wit the ENSO cycles is a part.

Sorry - I know what I am talking about.  

Its is sound...you need cold to snow.

I never denied Hadley cell expansion and global warming,  but it can't rain above the latitude of Myrtle Beach from December to March without eliciting  a 7 paragraph exercise in pedantic redundancy from you....which awkwardly concludes with a line or two of lament about how no woman wants to look at you, and the one that did, no longer wants to. 

It's always rained in the mid latitudes during winter....its not always a sign of cannibalistic Hadley Cells eating the world.

 

[Snowstorms]

37 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think it definitely has something to do with the overall crap pattern the last few years and no -AO/NAO since 2011 though.

 I think it has to do with the Arctic Sea Ice losses that have accelerated considerably since 2007. All that ocean heat being released back into the atmosphere in the Fall could have an impact on the polar vortex. Not sure if there's any research papers on that.  

[powderfreak]

11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

18Z is a different animal 

I find myself drawn to looking at it despite the time range.  Always fun to see exotic solutions.

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

 I think it has to do with the Arctic Sea Ice losses that have accelerated considerably since 2007. All that ocean heat being released back into the atmosphere in the Fall could have an impact on the polar vortex. Not sure if there's any research papers on that.  

There were research papers just a few years ago that argued melting sea ice was contributing to the severe -NAO/-AO patterns from 2008-2013....but I guess those went out of fashion the last few years. 

I haven’t seen anything recently about the stronger AO+ patterns though back in the early 2000s, there were papers that argued global warming was contributing to the strong +AO patterns that had become more prevalent in the 1980s/1990s vs the previous couple decades. 

[SnowGoose69]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There were research papers just a few years ago that argued melting sea ice was contributing to the severe -NAO/-AO patterns from 2008-2013....but I guess those went out of fashion the last few years. 

I haven’t seen anything recently about the stronger AO+ patterns though back in the early 2000s, there were papers that argued global warming was contributing to the strong +AO patterns that had become more prevalent in the 1980s/1990s vs the previous couple decades. 

The 80s/90s stretch I buy somewhat into the transitional AMO theory.  There was evidence that back in the last period when AMO was beginning the flip from cold to warm there were many positive AO/NAO winters as well though we don't have the stats back in that 1920-1935 period.

[Damage In Tolland]

There’s going to be a fight 

[leo2000]

The problem when someone argues that AGW is causing winters to be warmer or AGW is causing the Polar Vortex to weaken more often than usual. Yes AGW is happening but how it's really effecting weather patterns we still don't seem to have a good grasp on that yet. 

[Snowstorms]

59 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There were research papers just a few years ago that argued melting sea ice was contributing to the severe -NAO/-AO patterns from 2008-2013....but I guess those went out of fashion the last few years. 

I haven’t seen anything recently about the stronger AO+ patterns though back in the early 2000s, there were papers that argued global warming was contributing to the strong +AO patterns that had become more prevalent in the 1980s/1990s vs the previous couple decades. 

Interesting, thanks. Seems like their both still relatively misunderstood and it would be great if there could be additional research allocated towards learning more about them. As SnowGoose alluded to, the AMO could be one of the players but I doubt the PDO would exert any direct influence. I presumed that the accelerated sea ice loss was atleast enhancing the NAO/AO especially in the winter as the ocean heat is released back into the troposphere. 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Interesting, thanks. Seems like their both still relatively misunderstood and it would be great if there could be additional research allocated towards learning more about them. As SnowGoose alluded to, the AMO could be one of the players but I doubt the PDO would exert any direct influence. I presumed that the accelerated sea ice loss was atleast enhancing the NAO/AO especially in the winter as the ocean heat is released back into the troposphere. 

Yeah I don’t think the attribution studies on the AO/NAO are particularly convincing in one direction or the other when you look at the whole body of literature. There’s certainly a lot more to learn.

They are hard enough to figure out on a seasonal scale too.   

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its is sound...you need cold to snow.

I never denied Hadley cell expansion and global warming,  but it can't rain above the latitude of Myrtle Beach from December to March without eliciting  a 7 paragraph exercise in pedantic redundancy from you....which awkwardly concludes with a line or two of lament about how no woman wants to look at you, and the one that did, no longer wants to. 

It's always rained in the mid latitudes during winter....its not always a sign of cannibalistic Hadley Cells eating the world.

 

Don't make fun of Sheldon.

[Typhoon Tip]

No one said that global warming was why anyone storm is warm - where was that ever read   ?

There is an odd meteorology in the GFS solution… Which seems to have escaped everybody’s attention that’s trying to refute in knee jerk argue without thinking! Who gives a shit what your argument is about needing cold air and snow ...obviously 

WRT the 192 hr it’s the gdamn oddity of 510 heights over rain column - nothing else 

Look I wrote an op-ed-intoned piece for anybody that was lucid and objective in the read, and apparently some just don’t like the content ... 

 

[raindancewx]

I went through all of the La Ninas since 1950 today. None of them have the "look" of Fall 2020: A colder area in the middle third of the US relative to warmer thirds for the East and West. The closest thing to a La Nina that has the 2020 look is 1959, a cold-neutral ENSO with a very warm Northeast Pacific. That year also followed two El Ninos, with 2018-19 like 1957-58 - the stronger El Nino before a weaker event followed.

The La Nina Falls since 1950 tend to have the middle third of the US warm, or the West cold. Neither feature is present this Fall overall. In that respect, 2010 (colder West), and 2016 (hotter middle of the US) are much more traditional even with their weird winter features that developed than 2020. The best matches to Fall are 1959, 2003, 2014, 2018, 2019. All of those years have a warm NE Pacific. So something to keep in mind for winter. The blend is pretty warm for December too, and actually pretty close to the CFS.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, leo2000 said:

The problem when someone argues that AGW is causing winters to be warmer or AGW is causing the Polar Vortex to weaken more often than usual. Yes AGW is happening but how it's really effecting weather patterns we still don't seem to have a good grasp on that yet. 

You should probably just stick to “GW”and leave the “A” out of it

 

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

No one said that global warming was why anyone storm is warm - where was that ever read   ?

There is an odd meteorology in the GFS solution… Which seems to have escaped everybody’s attention that’s trying to refute in knee jerk argue without thinking! Who gives a shit what your argument is about needing cold air and snow ...obviously 

WRT the 192 hr it’s the gdamn oddity of 510 heights over rain column - nothing else 

Look I wrote an op-ed-intoned piece for anybody that was lucid and objective in the read, and apparently some just don’t like the content ... 

 

I don’t think this interpretation is the least bit objective.  But pondering the 510 thickness rain prog-when things don’t add up I’d be skeptical of the model depiction vs factoring far more warming than there has been.  And a 192 hour op prog?  You’re better than this.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I don’t think this interpretation is the least bit objective.  But pondering the 510 thickness rain prog-when things don’t add up I’d be skeptical of the model depiction vs factoring far more warming than there has been.  And a 192 hour op prog?  You’re better than this.

What are you talking about - better than what.

I never said 192 hour prog is reliable.

It’s a weather board ... you know ? Like discussion about duh ... weather and stuff??  It was just an op Ed geesh. 

...making a comment on how odd that look is 

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

John ...Jerry is on high dosages of THC/CBD 

[WinterWolf]

Hey..can we take the GW stuff into the appropriate forum.   It’s causing this, it’s causing that. In the early 2000’s according to Silly Al Gore, it wasn’t supposed to snow anymore past 2010.  Ya that worked out real well.  So done with it! 
 

 

[PhineasC]

We need snow. This is what happens to addicts in homeless encampments too, you know. They start fighting over dumb shit when they have to go without.