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December 2020 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Timing of the cold front seems to be early to mid morning west to east. Seems like a 12-15 hour period of torrential rain, damaging wind and dews. A place like Hunch will keep snowpack , but I think most others will lose most of it. Looks like a change to snow at the tail end. 

12-15 hr heavy rain...great, I thought a quick mover? Our local public works better start clearing city drains!

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5 hours ago, JoshSnow said:

Give me 977 and I think we’ll be all fine

That one's a little tight but the potential is there. Tip is saying 78 is coming. It's all good, @ice1972's inebriated melt last night is already pumping heights in the northeast and will result in North Atlantic blocking in about 10 days.

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I’m excited about what’s coming over the next two weeks. As far as I can tell it doesn’t look like an overwhelming suppression kind of blocking that is setting up, it looks more like something that will just slow things down and allow things to amplify near us. I hope that’s right because that can lead to really cool things like February 69 or February 78.  I hope we don’t see a replay of that kind of blocking they gave us rain while DC in Philly blizzarded in 2010, but I’m not getting that vibe 

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3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I’m excited about what’s coming over the next two weeks. As far as I can tell it doesn’t look like an overwhelming suppression kind of blocking that is setting up, it looks more like something that will just slow things down and allow things to amplify near us. I hope that’s right because that can lead to really cool things like February 69 or February 78.  I hope we don’t see a replay of that kind of blocking they gave us rain while DC in Philly blizzarded in 2010, but I’m not getting that vibe 

I'm just going to look right past this next one, It looks like a very good period thereafter.

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Nice to see the euro slash those rain progs down to 1-1.5” and limit the warmth. We always overperform the models with retaining the cold even if we eventually succumb to the sfc warm front, so it’ll be interesting to see how long we can maintain 30s on Xmas eve. Hopefully the GFS is correct with most of the rain during the night hours so that it’ll hopefully all be soaked in by the time my birds are ready to come out. 6” of water in the run with 20 birds waiting in a coop would make for a stressful Xmas morning. 

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15 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Well we had a base of more than 2 feet from which to groom. I imagine that’s a nice firmly packed base trail that is not going to be affected by the torch too badly. Then some powder should come to freshen it up

There is no 2' over this way so we will probably start from scratch again.

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