ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Don't get me wrong....global warming is real...but why are we raising eyebrows when it takes time to reload the source region after a month of seeing the continent gang-raped by the Pacific? There’s also still wet snow to the west and southwest side of that low. It’s severely negatively tilted so I’m not seeing how it should snow over us on that setup/track. If we had a fresh arctic airmass Ahead of it then it would be different but this never had that look. Maybe after the ULL moves over we get instability snow showers or graupel type stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 Damn double headed for Ohio, need a Big Dog meme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Don't get me wrong....global warming is real...but why are we raising eyebrows when it takes time to reload the source region after a month of seeing the continent gang-raped by the Pacific? I think there is some value in the notion that climate is insidious ... changing under one's nose and they may not be aware of it... " it's just so slow that we end up here and people don't recall a "switch" or definitive event that demarcates when a seamless boundary passed by - but it's "climate event horizon" stuff - you don't know you cross over the point of no return... " I was just making an op-ed out of it... "..In 1946 I don't believe we necessarily had to have a -EPO to get things going... " As far as your bold...not sure I agree that a month of anything logically follows... Ever heard of a phenomenon known as a "blue norther" ?? it does not take as long as we may think to clean out continental regional scope and scale of warmth. Blue norther is Plains phenomenon where cold dense air mass funnels down the lee side of the Rockies ...it gets sort of caught under the sounding and geographically/topographically the air mass continues to roll S under the environmental flow until it's momentum/pressure continuity is normalized.... Usually not stopping until pretty deep in latitude, too. It's almost like our "tuck" phenomenon, but over a much, much larger continental scale, really - ... It can turn balmy 74 F late autumn day in Dallas to 19 F pingers with fr drizzle in a single hour in very strong knife events. I wasn't intending to 'raise eyebrows' in that sense - more like droll with a soupcon of seriousness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 41 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There’s also still wet snow to the west and southwest side of that low. It’s severely negatively tilted so I’m not seeing how it should snow over us on that setup/track. If we had a fresh arctic airmass Ahead of it then it would be different but this never had that look. Maybe after the ULL moves over we get instability snow showers or graupel type stuff. He was responding to my climate jest ... You seem to be adding commentary about a specific event ? which one ... As far as specifics: I'm intrigued by the D8 depiction in the GFS ...and even the GGEM is doing it to some degree ( pun intended ...). it's closing off heights so deep it strains believability that the column wouldn't be colder .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 Second half of December looks to rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 If these NAO forecasts verify, shouldn't long-range guidance trend cooler and cooler? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 10 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: If these NAO forecasts verify, shouldn't long-range guidance trend cooler and cooler? That NAO is a tricky mofo....let’s not count our chickens before they hatch. Seen this happen a lot over the last 5 yrs, and then all of a sudden Poof, she’s gone. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2020 Author Share Posted November 28, 2020 49 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I think there is some value in the notion that climate is insidious ... changing under one's nose and they may not be aware of it... " it's just so slow that we end up here and people don't recall a "switch" or definitive event that demarcates when a seamless boundary passed by - but it's "climate event horizon" stuff - you don't know you cross over the point of no return... " I was just making an op-ed out of it... "..In 1946 I don't believe we necessarily had to have a -EPO to get things going... " As far as your bold...not sure I agree that a month of anything logically follows... Ever heard of a phenomenon known as a "blue norther" ?? it does not take as long as we may think to clean out continental regional scope and scale of warmth. Blue norther is Plains phenomenon where cold dense air mass funnels down the lee side of the Rockies ...it gets sort of caught under the sounding and geographically/topographically the air mass continues to roll S under the environmental flow until it's momentum/pressure continuity is normalized.... Usually not stopping until pretty deep in latitude, too. It's almost like our "tuck" phenomenon, but over a much, much larger continental scale, really - ... It can turn balmy 74 F late autumn day in Dallas to 19 F pingers with fr drizzle in a single hour in very strong knife events. I wasn't intending to 'raise eyebrows' in that sense - more like droll with a soupcon of seriousness. Sorry, man....gonna have to disagree with you on this one. I'm sure there are some events that would have been snow 40 years ago because the globe in in fact warming. But this is not one of them....this would have rained on the Boston tea party. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Damn double headed for Ohio, need a Big Dog meme DD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Sorry, man....gonna have to disagree with you on this one. I'm sure there are some events that would have been snow 40 years ago because the globe in in fact warming. But this is not one of them....this would have rained on the Boston tea party. Nothing worse than wet knickers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 Also, in 1700 or 1946 we needed epo or other help in early December. We have a 150 year record of storms that happened and in almost all cases there is at least one favorable tele. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Normally I roll-eyes when the social tenor in here 'memes' on a popularity for grousing with that song and dance that 'pretends we're not trolling' But, hmm in this case, in deference to the lack of cold in Canada, despite the favorable PNA look ... I have to say I am impressed folks are objectively/lucid to the idea in this case. I remember opining either in this social media outlet, or emailing to some Met once ...probably both, that about 7 or 9 years I notice a difference setting in. It seemed we crossed a threshold. Our flop direction when facing modeled marginal looks started not going to -1C ... and in fact, going the other way. Maybe it's just another under-the-radar metric in how our region expresses a warming world. Our flop tendency --> +1 ... I don't mean that from any empirically derived hard thing ... Just an observation/anecdotal in general. It seems we are more and more NJ-like. I know ... I know ... desperately cobble counter arguments but ... okay. Maybe? But just keep in mind...climate change is happening And if/when that change is in the 'up' direction ... ? See ...one of the beauties - and saviors of sanity - about the cosmos is that reality still exists whether people want to believe it or not - lol... Anyway, the climate bands are migrating N. And seeing whopper +PNA's over 10 day stints approaching a proper winter climo month ... fail to load cold ... mm. I don't know...I 1946 I don't believe we necessarily had to have a -EPO to get things going... nah. It's endemic to modernity and where we're heading ... it's just so slow that we end up here and people don't recall a "switch" or definitive event that demarcates when a seamless boundary passed by - but it's "climate event horizon" stuff - you don't know you cross over the point of no return... So, being a little poetically/symbolic there but still - But, I remember saying ... it's like in the olden days we could count on a +2 C, 850 mb thermal layout in the CCB of coastal, on any given D8, winding up isothermal blue menaces... That just doesn't seem so reliant in anymore. It's like the "synergistic" tendency? Those ephemeral results that only exist while the storm is happening, emerged warmer now than 50 years ago... at all scales...dailies/events/ ..to large synoptic evolutions. Patterns find the warm flop direction with increasingly less excuses in getting there.. anyway, without a direct servicing cold ... the base-line does immediately go back to 1 degree too warm for anything ... Oh but we do need the -EPO to get the cold really loading. The positive PNA is only going to give low level cold not the deep stuff that a -EPO provides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 EPS looks like they trended a little more amplified out west in the LR. Maybe a nod toward the GEFS. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 27 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: That NAO is a tricky mofo....let’s not count our chickens before they hatch. Seen this happen a lot over the last 5 yrs, and then all of a sudden Poof, she’s gone. The last few years I really ruined us for NAO believability. The only thing I believe now is fast flow and negative EPO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 16 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: The last few years I really ruined us for NAO believability. The only thing I believe now is fast flow and negative EPO we still had March 2018, no? A rarity for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Sorry, man....gonna have to disagree with you on this one. I'm sure there are some events that would have been snow 40 years ago because the globe in in fact warming. But this is not one of them....this would have rained on the Boston tea party. It's okay to disagree ... but about what? I'm not even sure we are discussing the same facets - ... are you talking specific events or climate - if one wants to hone specifics, you can disagree all you want but having a 510 DM height center quasi-closed off and passing over head while it is raining is exceptionally rare and strains believability... As far as the climate change being 'under the radar' of general awareness - that's not even refutable ... Climate doesn't change one day - yeah...I don't know what is disagreed upon but okay 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS looks like they trended a little more amplified out west in the LR. Maybe a nod toward the GEFS. Looks like the +PNA is going to be legit into mid-December. EPS wants no part at all of a -NAO or -AO though, it’s not enthused about any -EPO either 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 Just to be clear, do the CDC teleconnections predictions only use GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2020 Author Share Posted November 28, 2020 13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's okay to disagree ... but about what? I'm not even sure we are discussing the same facets - ... are you talking specific events or climate - if one wants to hone specifics, you can disagree all you want but having a 510 DM height center quasi-closed off and passing over head while it is raining is exceptionally rare and strains believability... As far as the climate change being 'under the radar' of general awareness - that's not even refutable ... Climate doesn't change one day - yeah...I don't know what is disagreed upon but okay I disagree that it's odd to rain in SNE in early December with Canada void of cold...speaking of irrefutable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 monday's storm is a classic prayers for the pitch pines event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I disagree that it's odd to rain in SNE in early December with Canada void of cold...speaking of irrefutable... Yeah, okay gotcha ... I'll only add that "SNE in early December" takes a back-seat to what is actually on the chart and/or verifying - climate doesn't drive the latter, so if we're in the business of closing off heights so deep and physically bordering on impossibly raining at that depth ...we're talking about apples and oranges Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 1 hour ago, Henry's Weather said: Just to be clear, do the CDC teleconnections predictions only use GEFS? Correct ... I'm sure the CMC folk probably derive their indices, as do the JMA and Euro offices ... etc etc... The CPC's ( fyi - ) uses the middle tropospheric geopotential height anomalies across a grid.... Where they employ Emperical Orthogonals ( it's worth it to look it up and study it for a couple of hours- it's a nerd's paradise ) to derive polynomial expression.... where by they can be solved quadratically/sqr completion to determine the roots... Positive means as such and vice versa... It just so happens that by convention/latitude .. .negative in the case of EPO and NAO means the heights are higher than normal ... so PNA being more mid latitude ends up being negative as higher heights in the S... More over, the AO is a circumvallate extending S from the N-pole in all directions/radii equidistance ...I "think" down to 70S but don't quote me - can look that up.. Where's the EPO and NOA domain spaces extend above and below that ~ latitude by west-east longitudes.... such that they overlap the AO in partial eclipse, and can at times differentiate from the AO... That is why/where art is involved ... in/if the AO is falling to neutral, but the EPO and NAO are negative ... that means it is likely the AO overall is positive but happens to have some positive heights/blocking sharing the domain space with the former... and on and so on... They don't always move together either...sometimes changes over in Eurasia will tug the AO in an opposing direction to the Pac/Atl forcing and there's weird shit that transiently happens... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 Should be fun getting blasted with yet another heavy rainstorm while PA and Western MD get heavy snow. Why’d I move all the way up here again? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: Should be fun getting blasted with yet another heavy rainstorm while PA and Western MD get heavy snow. Why’d I move all the way up here again? Cuz if you were still there...it would certainly be raining lol. It’ll come..don’t you worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 11 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Should be fun getting blasted with yet another heavy rainstorm while PA and Western MD get heavy snow. Why’d I move all the way up here again? Because your snowfall to date on 11/28 is likely higher than several of your Maryland winters added together . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Because your snowfall to date on 11/28 is likely higher than several of your Maryland winters added together . LOL yeah that’s very true. Helps to keep perspective. I just wish these next two cutters would just fizzle instead of dumping like 10 inches of rain on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 Changes coming second week of Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 Could have done without these next 2 cutters, But, It is what it is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2020 Author Share Posted November 28, 2020 48 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah, okay gotcha ... I'll only add that "SNE in early December" takes a back-seat to what is actually on the chart and/or verifying - climate doesn't drive the latter, so if we're in the business of closing off heights so deep and physically bordering on impossibly raining at that depth ...we're talking about apples and oranges It's not physically impossible...its happening because the heights are closing off on the heels of Pac jet dominant pattern. I feel like you employ global warming, Hadley cell expansion, or some other derivative there of far too liberally. Fact of the matter is that early Dec is still pretty hostile snow climo for much of SNE,and there isn't much margin for error. That has always been the case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 19 minutes ago, dryslot said: Changes coming second week of Dec. Looks better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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