powderfreak Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 Second low definitely not off shore on Euro and GGEM. Ha. Build thy ark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 Just now, powderfreak said: Second low definitely not off shore on Euro and GGEM. Ha. Build thy ark. Or 6z gfs. We ark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 Even when it cools off next week it’s still AN. That’s the problem in Dec. Canada has no cold to get in here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Even when it cools off next week it’s still AN. That’s the problem in Dec. Canada has no cold to get in here After first week. Christ. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 Definitely a potent storm Monday night. Lots of rain and wind it appears. Seems to be slowing a bit on guidance so central and ern areas may get quite the soaking. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 GEFS and EPS continue to hold their respective solutions in the long range. Hopefully we end up closer to the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 2nd week of December looks good. Would be shocked if there wasn't a plowable event or two somewhere in the northeast. ...and then it'll be the 3rd week, then Xmas..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Lava Rock said: 59 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: 2nd week of December looks good. Would be shocked if there wasn't a plowable event or two somewhere in the northeast. ...and then it'll be the 3rd week, then Xmas..... Will has always said second week. Listen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: After first week. Christ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 Hey Scott, you think there is a severe component to the weather on Monday night and Tuesday with the cold frontal passage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Hey Scott, you think there is a severe component to the weather on Monday night and Tuesday with the cold frontal passage? I don’t think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: I don’t think so. okay, inversion probably rears its ugly head with a pure southerly flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Definitely a potent storm Monday night. Lots of rain and wind it appears. Seems to be slowing a bit on guidance so central and ern areas may get quite the soaking. Great. I need more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 54 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Even when it cools off next week it’s still AN. That’s the problem in Dec. Canada has no cold to get in here Great pattern fail Wish I lived near the lakes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Great pattern fail Wish I lived near the lakes Keep following those Twitter weenies 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Great pattern fail Wish I lived near the lakes The first two systems never had a chance for us. Hopefully we get a threat in 5th-10th timeframe with a better airmass 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Keep following those Twitter weenies Lol. I’m not sure how many times we posted that the first week of December was probably going to be crap with a garbage airmass. It was at least like 8-10 times between several of us in here. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: GEFS and EPS continue to hold their respective solutions in the long range. Hopefully we end up closer to the GEFS. This is not a bad look at the eps. This snap shot Is after the ridge retrogrades west. It’s more of a overrunning threat with some high lat blocking. It’s definitely not the GEFS but not a Niña look yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 10 minutes ago, Allsnow said: This is not a bad look at the eps. This snap shot Is after the ridge retrogrades west. It’s more of a overrunning threat with some high lat blocking. It’s definitely not the GEFS but not a Niña look yet. Yeah it’s got potential with that look. Potentially overrunning as you said, but can’t work the details out this early. Like Will said yesterday, it’s good to have the choices between something like the EPS and GEFS. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 When it looks like the pattern change is always two weeks away..... 2001-2002....2011-2012.... whatever. We're here today. That's not nothing in 2020. Would be nice if our 2 weeks of winter encompassed Christmas and New Year, but then again, Christmas isn't about snow and getting 2020 the hell out of here counts more than any number of blizzards... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: okay, inversion probably rears its ugly head with a pure southerly flow Actually 12z NAM may have a convective threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 Wiz will start a thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2020 Author Share Posted November 28, 2020 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Wiz will start a thread I'm torn over whether to scroll that first, or powderfreak's upslope thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 GFS goes to 960 next weekend, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 Normally I roll-eyes when the social tenor in here 'memes' on a popularity for grousing with that song and dance that 'pretends we're not trolling' But, hmm in this case, in deference to the lack of cold in Canada, despite the favorable PNA look ... I have to say I am impressed folks are objectively/lucid to the idea in this case. I remember opining either in this social media outlet, or emailing to some Met once ...probably both, that about 7 or 9 years I notice a difference setting in. It seemed we crossed a threshold. Our flop direction when facing modeled marginal looks started not going to -1C ... and in fact, going the other way. Maybe it's just another under-the-radar metric in how our region expresses a warming world. Our flop tendency --> +1 ... I don't mean that from any empirically derived hard thing ... Just an observation/anecdotal in general. It seems we are more and more NJ-like. I know ... I know ... desperately cobble counter arguments but ... okay. Maybe? But just keep in mind...climate change is happening And if/when that change is in the 'up' direction ... ? See ...one of the beauties - and saviors of sanity - about the cosmos is that reality still exists whether people want to believe it or not - lol... Anyway, the climate bands are migrating N. And seeing whopper +PNA's over 10 day stints approaching a proper winter climo month ... fail to load cold ... mm. I don't know...In 1946 I don't believe we necessarily had to have a -EPO to get things going... nah. It's endemic to modernity and where we're heading ... it's just so slow that we end up here and people don't recall a "switch" or definitive event that demarcates when a seamless boundary passed by - but it's "climate event horizon" stuff - you don't know you cross over the point of no return... So, being a little poetically/symbolic there but still - But, I remember saying ... it's like in the olden days we could count on a +2 C, 850 mb thermal layout in the CCB of coastal, on any given D8, winding up isothermal blue menaces... That just doesn't seem so reliant in anymore. It's like the "synergistic" tendency? Those ephemeral results that only exist while the storm is happening, emerged warmer now than 50 years ago... at all scales...dailies/events/ ..to large synoptic evolutions. Patterns find the warm flop direction with increasingly less excuses in getting there.. anyway, without a direct servicing cold ... the base-line does immediately go back to 1 degree too warm for anything ... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 510 DM heights around a deepening core over L.I.... .... rain 510 DM heights over top 534 dm thickness - ...whaaaa ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: 510 DM heights around a deepening core over L.I.... .... rain 510 DM heights over top 534 dm thickness - ...whaaaa ... No kidding, in December on top of it....yet a polar bear belches and it snows to the coast, in October... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 Hard to hate the pattern on GEFS after first week of Dec. GEFS are starting to hit the NAO region a bit more now too 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2020 Author Share Posted November 28, 2020 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Normally I roll-eyes when the social tenor in here 'memes' on a popularity for grousing with that song and dance that 'pretends we're not trolling' But, hmm in this case, in deference to the lack of cold in Canada, despite the favorable PNA look ... I have to say I am impressed folks are objectively/lucid to the idea in this case. I remember opining either in this social media outlet, or emailing to some Met once ...probably both, that about 7 or 9 years I notice a difference setting in. It seemed we crossed a threshold. Our flop direction when facing modeled marginal looks started not going to -1C ... and in fact, going the other way. Maybe it's just another under-the-radar metric in how our region expresses a warming world. Our flop tendency --> +1 ... I don't mean that from any empirically derived hard thing ... Just an observation/anecdotal in general. It seems we are more and more NJ-like. I know ... I know ... desperately cobble counter arguments but ... okay. Maybe? But just keep in mind...climate change is happening And if/when that change is in the 'up' direction ... ? See ...one of the beauties - and saviors of sanity - about the cosmos is that reality still exists whether people want to believe it or not - lol... Anyway, the climate bands are migrating N. And seeing whopper +PNA's over 10 day stints approaching a proper winter climo month ... fail to load cold ... mm. I don't know...In 1946 I don't believe we necessarily had to have a -EPO to get things going... nah. It's endemic to modernity and where we're heading ... it's just so slow that we end up here and people don't recall a "switch" or definitive event that demarcates when a seamless boundary passed by - but it's "climate event horizon" stuff - you don't know you cross over the point of no return... So, being a little poetically/symbolic there but still - But, I remember saying ... it's like in the olden days we could count on a +2 C, 850 mb thermal layout in the CCB of coastal, on any given D8, winding up isothermal blue menaces... That just doesn't seem so reliant in anymore. It's like the "synergistic" tendency? Those ephemeral results that only exist while the storm is happening, emerged warmer now than 50 years ago... at all scales...dailies/events/ ..to large synoptic evolutions. Patterns find the warm flop direction with increasingly less excuses in getting there.. anyway, without a direct servicing cold ... the base-line does immediately go back to 1 degree too warm for anything ... Don't get me wrong....global warming is real...but why are we raising eyebrows when it takes time to reload the source region after a month of seeing the continent gang-raped by the Pacific? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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